Valuation Saturation Fractal Analysis - A Real Science?

November 25, 2007
The process of validation for the hypothesis of quantum fractal growth and decay of asset valuation as precisely representative of a heretofore unknown intrinsic quantitative operative nature of the complex macroeconomic system, was earlier proposed in the final update of The Economic Fractalist: " Saturation Curve Fractal Analysis - A Real Science? In order to qualify as a true science, the subject entity must be testable by scientific method and have underlying laws that operate in the real physical environment. These laws must be repetitively provable and have reasonable predictability for different applications. Scientific testing in college biology, chemistry, and physics laboratories usually results in experimental values that roughly support the underlying mathematical equations and theoretical constructs. If indeed complex economic systems travel by the simple quantum laws that observational fractal analysis suggests, a similar validity should be testable and provable, retrospectively and prospectively, in the great laboratory of readily obtainable asset valuation saturation curves."
The valuations of General Motors have often been used because of GM's remarkable likeness at small scale to the United States' current position of debt, entitlements, obligations, and global competitiveness. GM's second subfractal of 15/36/30 x/2.5x/2x weeks with its recent decline below its one year trendline has been used a proxy microcosm marker for the United States' true underlying debt-driven supporting money supply. Because of its largeness and its plurality of world equity value, the Wilshire's hourly, daily, weekly, monthly valuations have been primarily used to examine and test the macro performance of simple 'laws' contained within ' The Economic Fractalist ' macroeconomic saturation quantum fractal hypothesis: the elegantly simple fractal growth proportionality relationship: x/2.5x/2x, the second fractal's sine qua non nonlinearity between 2x and 2.5x, the primary simple decay relationships conforming generally to a y/2.5y/2.5y fractal pattern, and the principal that decay is confluent and begins in the terminal portion of growth. The Wilshire's saturation tops of 19 July 2007 and 11 October 2007 were prospectively identified using the simple quantum relationships. The Wilshire's 11/27/22 x/2.5x/2x month growth from October 2002 and 75/150 week x/2x growth since March 2003 resulted in the saturation July 2007 top. The Wilshire's day- price-volume triple-product area of May-June-July 2007 still exceeds that of the September-October-November 2007 similar triple-product area. July's 20 day third fractal of a12/30/20 day fractal sequence became the base for a 20/50/40 day fractal sequence ending on 11 October 2007. 11 October is contained within a second fractal with a 17-18 day first fractal base beginning on 16 August. 11 October may well be contained within the first decay base with synchronized classic and caricatured second fractal decay of multiple first fractal bases of 70 years, 8 years, 75 weeks, 62 weeks, and 41 weeks. There are four competing simple mathematical models of quantum fractal decay representing this nonlinear synchronized second fractal area.. Currently as of 25 November, the 13/24 of 32-33/32-33 day decay fractal appears most likely. If this model is correct the Wilshire's 5 year trendline will likely be breached between days 26 and 32-33 of the second fractal. If this decay model is correct, it is likely that gold and oil will also see devaluation during this time frame with the dollar gaining in valuation against other currencies. The other fractal possibility from the 16 August low is a 17-18/44/11 of 34-35 day deteriorating growth fractal. If there is enough ongoing debt expansion, perhaps via the vehicle of holiday seasonal debt, the composite US equity markets could positively maintain its third fractal growth until the new year. Decay after this point would still be within the time frame area of synchronized second fractal nonlinearity and consistent with the underlying quantum laws.

Lammert Quantitative Saturation and Decay Macroeconomics

Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of cause and effect saturation and decay macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and economic cycles is both causal and quantitatively decipherable. Valuations conform to fractal cyclical patterns that can be recognized, interpreted in conjunction with data emanating from the macroeconomic system, and used with short term and long-term predicative power. Information from this site is not intended to be construed as investment advice or as an investment tool. This site has been constructed because of the expected inevitability of a major sudden phase transition to occur at the conclusion of a grand 140 plus-year second fractal cycle starting in 1858. For the masses this phase transition will occur both very unexpectedly and very suddenly. Approaching the global macro economy from such a causal and fractal Weltanschauung may help those considering further debt obligation and those in position of formulating future interest rate and monetary policy. The cyclical nature of the macroeconomic system operates by causality rather than chance. Valuations of assets are controlled chiefly by interest rates - the cost of money. Lowering nominal interest rates, below asset inflation controlling rates, leads to macro economical disequilibria with excessive money expansion through increased borrowing. This borrowing and money expansion is enhanced by lending parameters and devices which include various types of fractional of derivative lending. This money expansion engenders unbalanced forward consumption, consumer saturation, overproduction, and inflation of assets and consumer items. With the addition of ongoing wages of the consumer masses and accumulating debt service obligations, these oppositional elements are countervailing, and periodic macroeconomic imbalances will self correct. Market overvaluation saturation and decay corrections to new lower saturation points occur in a fractal manner. Cyclical patterns can readily be identified on valuation charts denominated in minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly units. The transitional asymptote of overvaluation saturation curves are followed by decay curves which bring market valuations to lowered decay saturation levels where intelligent buyers reenter the market. Valuation fractal cycles of yearly and multi-yearly lengths are based on saturation at the consumer level. Human psychology is a decidedly lagging indicator and follows as an end effect of the mechanistic saturation and decay evolutions in the market. Market contrarians understand these turning points and anticipate the directional changes of the markets based both on market asymptotic overvaluation saturation areas or decay end-point saturation characteristics and counter intuitively by recognizing the lagging psychological parameters of extreme optimism or pessimism in reaction to the mechanistic respective high and low points. Both the degree of valuation and the cyclical time course of valuation evolutions appear to conform to range bound near quantum-like units and quantum related Fibonacci numbers. While the absolute degree of valuation is influenced by the absolute interest rate, the percentage or proportionality changes of valuations from highs to lows and lengths of time to decay and intra-cycle nodal points appear to conform to these range bound near quantum units. The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X followed by a decay sequence of 1.5-1.6X; many ideal decay fractal sequences devolve in a Y/2.5Y/2.5Y fractal sequence. 'X' and 'Y' represents the fractal unit of time demoninated in minutes, hours, days, weeks, month and years. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. The second cycle may be composed of two roughly equal time units or one confluent time unit. A sudden nonlinear drop during the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x, which has import for the current 140 year grand fractal cycle, now in its 147th year. . The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. The current 70 year second fractal subfractal generational saturation area is characterized by extreme debt of the leading economic power and its citizen consumers. Quantum Fractal evolution has become idealized allowing precise predictions of both the 17 July 2007 and 11 October 2007 saturation highs for the Wilshire, America's 15 trillion dollar valuation composite equity market and the global macroeconomy's proxy quantitative and quantum fractal barometer. ..................................................................................................................................... Wilshire Decay fractal possibilities:
................................................................................................................................. Wlshire Decay Models A, B, C, and D as of 21 November: ..................................................................................................................................... A 9/22 of 23/23 days B 11/23 of 27-28/27-28 days ( a rerun of 1929) C 13/23 of 32/32 days and D 16/8 of 40/40 days with day 27 of the third fractal a major low and day 40 a final lower low. ............................................................................................................................... Decay Models A, B, and C are 1929 scenarios representing a primary decay followed by an expected 25-30 months of secondary and tertiary decay to a final low in 2010. ............................................................................................................................... Decay Model D implies one further 28-36 or so month credit cycle bolstered by zero fed funds rates and some sort of debt postponement or debt rescheduling scheme with a probable secondary lower peak in 2010. Even the latter possible transient best case scenario Model D, would be adversely impacted by inflation and peak oil.