Lammert Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics

July 2005 Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics - A New Science

2009-05-09T21:23:00.000-07:00

Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomics A New Science July 2005
Blog of gary.lammert -A recap of debt dependent quantitative saturation nonstochastic macroeconomics

The Economic Fractalist - An introduction Posted at 2005-07-01 13:54:52 by gary.lammert Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of cause and effect saturation macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and economic cycles is both causal and quantitatively decipherable. Valuations conform to fractal cyclical patterns that can be recognized, interpreted in conjunction with data emanating from the macroeconomic system, and used with short term and long-term predicative power. Information from this site is not intended to be construed as investment advice or as an investment tool. This site has been constructed because of the expected inevitability of a major sudden phase transition to occur at the conclusion of a grand 140 plus-year second fractal cycle starting in 1858. For the masses this phase transition will occur both very unexpectedly and very suddenly. Approaching the global macro economy from such a causal and fractal Weltanschauung may help those considering further debt obligation and those in position of formulating future interest rate and monetary policy. The cyclical nature of the macroeconomic system operates by causality rather than chance. Valuations of assets are controlled chiefly by interest rates - the cost of money. Lowering nominal interest rates, below asset inflation controlling rates, leads to macro economical disequilibria with excessive money expansion through increased borrowing. This expansion engenders unbalanced forward consumption, consumer saturation, overproduction, and inflation of assets and consumer items. With the addition of ongoing wages of the consumer masses, these oppositional elements are countervailing, and periodic macroeconomic imbalances will self correct. Market overvaluation saturation and decay corrections to new lower saturation points occur in a fractal manner. Cyclical patterns can readily be identified on valuation charts denominated in minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly units. The transitional asymptote of overvaluation saturation curves are followed by decay curves which bring market valuations to lowered decay saturation levels where intelligent buyers reenter the market. Valuation fractal cycles of yearly and multi-yearly lengths are based on saturation at the consumer level. Human psychology is a decidedly lagging indicator and follows as an end effect of the mechanistic saturation and decay evolutions in the market. Market contrarians understand these turning points and anticipate the directional changes of the markets based both on market asymptotic overvaluation saturation areas or decay end-point saturation characteristics and counter intuitively by recognizing the lagging psychological parameters of extreme optimism or pessimism in reaction to the mechanistic respective high and low points. Both the degree of valuation and the cyclical time course of valuation evolutions appear to conform to range bound near quantum-like units and quantum related Fibonacci numbers. While the absolute degree of valuation is influenced by the absolute interest rate, the percentage or proportionality changes of valuations from highs to lows and lengths of time to decay and intra-cycle nodal points appear to conform to these range bound near quantum units. The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X followed by a decay sequence of 1.5-1.6X. 'X' represents the fractal unit of time denominated in minutes, hours, days, weeks, months, and years. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. The second cycle may be composed of two roughly equal time units or one confluent time unit. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x, which has import for the current 140 year grand fractal cycle, now in its 147th year. . The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. Feel free to visit The Economic Fractalist Website. G. Lammert

2008-07-05T04:53:00.000-07:00

150 Year Second Fractal Nonlinearity and The Lammert Macroeconomic Fractal Series: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x

The Wilshire closed at 12815.47 on 3 July 2008, near its 22 month lows. Composite equity valuation decay will follow a quantum fractal decay pattern. What is that fractal pattern? Will the current fractal decay pattern time frame and final low be mathmatically consistent with the larger growth and decay pattern starting in October 2002? Will the US 150 year composite equity second fractal's terminal nonlinear area be incorporated within a larger nearly perfect quantum fractal pattern whose evolution and valuation saturation limits intuitively is casually determined by systemic unpayable massive debt? This historical debt evolved by unregulated credit expansion, financial engineering, and uncompetitive interest rates and taxed savings acoounts and misrepresented by the term 'investing' vice the real term 'speculating' has resulted in oversupply, over ownership, over valuation, and gross dysequilibrium between the jobs and wages needed in the real economy and the the ongoing capacity to service the artificially created excessive amount of debt. The macroeconomy composite equity valuation is now evolving under such conditions and is within the terminal devaluation area were debt and entitlements wlll undergo synchronized default. The October 2002 x/2.5x/2x/1.5x quantum fractal is a 11/27/22/13 of 17-18 month evolution and a 46/115/92/ 51 of 69 week evolution. The 92nd week of the third fractal contained the 19 July 2007 high and a reflexive 20/50/40 day fractal yielded the predicted 11 October 2007 interday nominal all time Wilshire high. Is first decay base 13 weeks vice 23 weeks? This fractal decay base would generate a decay sequence of 13/32-33/32-33 weeks vice the 23/48/48-50 week sequence...In this mathematical construct the second decay fractal could be composed of a 24 and a 9 week fractal with a low at the end of the 9 week fractal substantially higher than expected because of massive and historical federal reserve intervention with total rate cuts of over 2 percent for the January -March 08 time period with contemporary financial guarantees involving the collapse of the fifth largest US investment agency. This short 9 week fractal stills serves as a potential base for a final 9/17-18/17-18 week fractal with the week of 7-11 July 08 having a nonlinear movement with the Wilshire on 4 July 08 at 38-39/77 of 78 days with 39 days starting on 22-23 January 08 and ending on 17 March 08 composing the short 9 week base . The 2x end of second fractal at day 77 of 78 is near the low valuation level of the first fractal with decay nonlinearity expected between 2x and 2.5x or between day 78 and day 95. With the deteriorating second fractal valuation level, nonlinearity is expected in the ealy range of the 78 to 95 day 2x to 2.5x timw window..
17-18 additional weeks of a third decay fractal 9/17-18/17-18 weeks would take the decay pattern to a low consistent with the terminal portion of the larger 46/115/92/51 of 69 week fractal;progression starting in October 2002 and provide strong support of an operative self limiting mathematical quantum formula defining the limits and governing the complex macroeconomic system. The valuation devolution within the final third fractal of 17-18 weeks would reflect a necessary massive repudiation of debt and entitlement payments in the global debt expansion system which has fostered asset oversupply and overvaluation and has caused a facade of GDP growth. GM is likely to go the way of New Century during this next 18 week time period, with a final fractal pattern of 34/69/34 weeks, a fractal pattern elegantly similar to the pattern composing its first 34 week fractal a 9/18/9 wek pattern. Fractally interestingly, gold as a marker for commodity speculation has a potential 11/28/10 pf 28 week decay fractal which would match the expected composite equity low. On a daily basis as of 4 July gold and gold stocks are following a final 9/23/16 of potentially 18 day growth fractal. How low denominated in US dollars will the old yellow relic fall in the next 18 weeks supported by a plummeting number of surviving dollars?

Global Macroeconomic Primary Decay Model G or Decay Model G1

2008-02-02T08:24:00.000-08:00

Decay model E Modified :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x and y/2y/2y

2008-01-26T11:02:00.000-08:00

Another 0.25 to 0.75 interbank interest rate cut is expected on Wednesday January 30. This will accompany cuts of 0.5, 0.25, 0.25, and the emergency cut of 0.75 on 18 September, 31 October, 11 December 07, and 22 January 08 respectively. The yield for the ten year note dropped from 4.3 percent on 25 December to 3.3 percent on 23 January. For the same dates treasuries dropped from 3.3 to 1.9 percent. For the Wilshire starting from its 16 August lows, a Lammert four phase 17-18/44/34-35/28 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x day growth and decay fractal appears operative. From 27 December a 6/12-13/12-13 day :: y/2y/2y decay fractal is discernible not only for the Wilshire, but additionally for the FTSE, for the DAX, for the CAC, and for the NIKKEI composite indices with 28 January day 4-5 of a 6/12-13/4-5 of 12-13 day potential y/2y/2y decay fractal sequence. Fourth fractal Day 28 of the 4 phase Lammert fractal series and third fractal day12 of the three phase decay fractal series occur on the same day: 6 February 2008. If this quantum fractal model is correct and there are no trading halts, 6 February 2008 would represent an ideal low with expected nonlinear collapse within the next 8 trading days. The world composite equities are sharing the umbrella influence of a contracting world money supply - contracting under the triple saturation of US consumer asset acquisition, US consumer debt, and global asset overvaluation - all three caused primarily by lending parameters and as well by inadequately-high, non inflation controlling interest rates. From its twenty seven year lows gold is following a 17/34/33 of 33-34 x/2x/2x month growth fractal. From its 16 August 2007 low, gold has made a near perfect Lammert 4 phase fractal sequence of 11/28/22/18 days with the characteristic nonlinear drop in the terminal position of the second growth fractal. In the final 18 days of the final decay fractal, a terminal 9 day base formed serving as a new base with a 9/21-25/14 - 18 of 14 - 21 day growth fractal sequence with a blow off commencing in the early phases of the second fractal. This could be as simple as a 9/21/18 of 18 -21 x/2.5x/2.5x day sequence with day 18 of the third fractal having an opening gap rising to a new US nominal high at 925 US dollars and ending on the low of the day. What are the effects of a 1-1.5 per cent interest rate cut within a two week period? Can the Fed and Congress alter the controlling invisible forces governing the macroeconomy and hence the ideal quantum fractal patterns through historical radical interest rate cuts, 800 US dollar tax rebates, and subprime repayment moratoriums and modifications? The next 8 trading days will provide the answer.

'Decay Model E' : Oct 1987 and ? Jan 2008: the Terminal 23 July 1987 and 16 August 2007 x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x Lammert Nonstochastic Fractal Sequences

2008-01-20T09:02:00.000-08:00

In 1987 the US macroeconomy during and after the rapid Wilshire October equity devolution was in a healthy state. Underpinned by massive percentage GDP deficit cold war military expenditures, by its position as a world creditor nation with high savings, by its NAFTA-less WTO-less role as a net exporting and manufacturing nation, by its role as the foremost innovative technology R and D developer and manufacturer of microcircuits and computer chips - very equivalent to the 1950's transistor revolution- and by the related ongoing explosive marketing of the PC, the 1987 US macroeconomy was a global economic steamroller. The tranisent nonlinear October 1987 equity collapse was quite simply secondary to transient overvaluation and investor saturation; a nonstochastic saturation event that occurred in an otherwise remarkable economic growth period. Over twenty years later, the US macroeconomy suffers from a most severe dysequilibrium, the necessary consequences of 'globalization' of its formerly more nationalistic US corporations. Maximal profit motive drove US corporate CEO's and boards of directors to make business decisions and influence American politicians in the passage of globalization agreements that would maximize corporate profits. Ultimately corporate profit motive has relegated the American consumer to a significantly indebted borrower - with corporations gaining large profits from the financial debt business and the business of importing and distribution of cheap labor produced items to the US consumer market. During this same time low interest rates - politically and economically necessitated by the 32 month or so collapse of the high tech bubble, lending parameters of the financial industry, and artificial transient wealth created from the resulting inflation of the housing bubble synergistically provided the dynamics for the unsustainable debt driven economic growth. Globalized corporations had record profits - reaping benefits from both lending to American consumers and selling cheap-labor imported manufactured goods. First, the saturated and overvalued housing bubble crested and remaining investment money was focused on the equity and commodity markets. As the available investment money further contracted by ongoing debt default and associated restricted lending, the residual was lastly focused on the commodity markets. At the end there will be inadequate amounts of investment money available to support commodities. Without any particular Federal Reserve monetary action, residual investment money, as many times past predicted, has optimally flowed into the US federal debt market driving the ten year note to a four year low. The 2008 US macroeconomy is triply saturated: saturated with a large supply of overvalued assets, saturated with asset over-ownership, and saturated with debt - all three supported by a contracting number of disproportionally service-related US jobs. 2.6 trillion dollars has undergone devolution from the Wilshire's 11 October 2007predicted high. January 2008 is not October 1987. It likely represents the nonlinear devolution area of a major generational consumer saturation time phase predicted in The Economic Fractlist. Near ideal Lammert x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal progression may soon occur. For the 1987 Wilshire it was 9-10/24-25/20/15 days and for the 2008 Wilshire it may likely be 17-18/44/34/25-27 days.

2008-01-12T16:58:00.000-08:00

Lammert Quantum Macroeconomics: 16-17/43 of 43/43 days or Decay Model E

The American economy - and hence with its weighted value, the global macroeconomy - is contracting. The American economy that has been so heavily dependent on massive debt growth with primary gains over the last 5 years in the real estate and financial debt industry sectors came to a net worth climax likely on July 19, 2007 when the combined commodity, real estate, bond, and equity markets' worth reached a zenith composite valuation level. Perhaps aided with the lowered interbank interest rates by the Federal Reserve and perhaps of its own 20/50/40 day intrinsic maximum growth process, the 15 trillion dollar Wilshire made a final predicted high on 11 October 2007. Equity asset values unsupported by further debt expansion at the consumer level are undergoing devolution. Job numbers related to real estate, durable good production, disposable income driven entertainment, financial transactions, sales, et. al. - are all contracting in a macroeconomy defined by limited wage growth, consumer saturation, debt saturation, asset overvaluation,and bad loans undergoing default. How does this asset overvaluation - consumer saturation macroeconomy compare to 1929 and 2000? The country and the world are about to find out. How severe will the devolution be and how effective will a sub one percent Fed Fund rate and less than 1 per cent treasury rate be in propping up the equity markets? By the US 1930's experience with T-bills approaching 0 per cent and the more recent Japanese experience, it is not likely the Federal Reserve will have a determining influence. The value of surviving US dollars will increase relative to assets undergoing devolution. Gold which has undergone a recent blow-off has completed a 7/17/14 year fractal starting about 1970. The mid portion of the 14 year third fractal has shown this collectible's substantial weakness and is harbinger of future valuation.
For the Wilshire December 2007 concluded a 11/27/27 month maximum saturation growth fractal x/2.5x/2.5x starting in October 2002. The Wilshire's weekly count 'borrowed' 2 weeks from the concluding portion of a three phase decay fractal starting in 1999 for a 46/115/92 week fractal with week 92 of the third fractal within a few days of the 19 July 2007 averaged daily high. Week 115 (2.5x) of the maximum saturation area of the third fractal rests between the two final weekly highs at weeks 114 and 116 correlating to the final daily lower highs on 12 and 26 December 2007, respectively. So what is the necessary quantitative fractal decay pattern? Model D from this site is still viable at 16-17/42 of 43/43 days as of 11 January with Monday 14 January (vice 12 January,a nontrading day) as the possible nonlinear break point day. At the close of 11 January 2008 and on a 15 minute fractal basis the Wilshire has recently followed a perfect 12/30/25 :: x/2.5x/2x 15 minute unit pattern - the base borrowing (3) 15 minute units from the preceding decay fractal. The 24th 15 minute unit of the third fractal was higher than the 25th unit. Will Monday 14 January day 43 of a potential 16-17/43 of 43/43 day decay fractal represent a nonlinear break point day - or is it the beginning of a few day growth area and consistent with Model E?

Model E for the Wilshire: From the 16 August low a 17-18/44/34/25-26 x/2.5x/2x/1.5x completed fractal with day 25-26 of the 4th (decay) fractal representing an interim low, prior to yet another deteriorating growth and much lower low decay sequence of perhaps 41 weeks in length. Interestingly the 17-18/44/34/26 model matches the duration of an averaged 20/50/50 day decay sequence starting on 16 August with a second fractal low on 21 November(still slight higher than the 26 November low)

Decay Fractal Model D 16/40/40 or 16-17/40-43/40-43 days?

2008-01-08T23:54:00.000-08:00

Because 22 October 2007 the first day of first decay fractal was upgoing, the window for the conclusion of the second fractal for model D is extended to 11-12 January 2008.

Lammert Fractal Decay Model D Still Operative

2008-01-06T04:42:00.000-08:00

The potential science of Lammert quantum macroeconomic fractal analysis has predicted the 19 July 2007 and 11 October 2007, secondary nominal high and final nominal high, respectively, and more recently, the 26 December 2007 lower high saturation tops. From this alcove site, decay model D:: 16/40/40 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y is still operative with a count of 16/37 of 40/40 days as of 6 January 08. If this quantum decay model is correct a devolution of at least 7-10 percent of the Wilshire should occur over the next three trading days taking the Wilshire to a minimum of a 12-16 month low during the trading day of 9 January 2008. In this decay model, the absolute decline and underlying slope line for the 40 day second decay fractal are important because they will yield telling information regarding the macroeconomy's ability for another possible short debt cycle, fueled by sub one percent Fed Fund's rates and 1- 2 percent ten year notes. On the other hand, a more profound devolution is possible (consistent with the terminal portion of the 150 year US equity second fractal) with a completion of the 1.6x decay portion of the 17-18/44/34/1.6x or 27-28 day fractal starting 16 August 2007.

From the Huffington Post - the 10 October 2007 Prediction for the 11 October 2007 Wilshire High

2007-12-27T03:21:00.000-08:00

theeconomicfractalist
Recent comments by this user
Stocks Fall Amid Growing Economic Worries
Precise Macroeconomic Quantum Lammert Valuation Fractals

The money-asset system is complex, yet self-limited. The ongoing devolution of the Wilshire is non random; it is measured and occurring in a mathematical and perfect quantum fractal fashion and .... will continue to do so.
posted 12/17/2007 at 18:57:32
More Ebb, Then Flow
Saturation Curve Fractal Analysis - A Real Science?

In order to qualify as a true science, the subject entity must be testable by scientific method and have underlying laws that operate in the real physical environment. These laws must be repetitively provable and have reasonable predictability for different applications. Scientific testing in college biology, chemistry, and physics laboratories usually results in experimental values that roughly support the underlying mathematical equations and theoretical constructs. If indeed complex economic systems travel by the simple quantum laws that observational fractal analysis suggests, a similar validity should be testable and provable, retrospectively and prospectively, in the great laboratory of readily obtainable asset valuation saturation curves."
The Wilshire 11 October 2007 and 19 July 2007 highs were predicted by quantum fractal analysis.
posted 11/25/2007 at 16:38:15
'Trust Us, We're Experts!': George Will Predicts Ron Paul Will Finish In The Double-Digits in New Hampshire
Congressman Paul's Powerful 'Secret.'

In 1956 in a very Republican Indiana precinct, a local precinct committeeman, a Veteran of WW2, went door to door with personal conviction visiting each house within his precinct and arguing the merits of the democratic presidential candidate. Eisenhower, who was, arguably, one of America's best presidents, took Indiana that year by a 20 percent margin. Within that local precinct, however, Stevenson won by a 60 per cent margin. A Small Army of Individuals with Personal Conviction and Door to Door Lobbying is Congressman Ron Paul's Powerful Secret and likely will be the cause of a rather large double digit showing.
posted 11/18/2007 at 18:27:23
U.S. Could Face $2 Trillion Lending Shock
Derivatives, Trendlines, Lammert Fractal Progression, and Macroeconomic Saturation.

Globalization and transporation of Asia products have made the transportation index a leading macroeconomic indicator. The US composite transportation index 5 year trendline has been breeched. The trendline for the composite Wilshire lies at about 600 points below its current value. Because bottom trendlines exactly determine the fractal units of quantum Lammert Fractal progession, there is a direct correlation to the larger use of trendlines to determine major directional changes. All growth and decay of asset valuations are based on available investment money which in turn is based on net macroeconomic money/credit growth or net macroeconomic money/growth decay. In the United States money growth is primarily a function of new debt growth.Two key elements of the potential new science of quantitative saturation macroeconomics are that money growth and debt has its limits and that growth to saturation areas occur in quantitative fractal patterns of tradeable composite asset valuations. This quantitative fractal progression is highly predictable. Money decay likewise occurs in quantitative fractal patterns, characterized by the sine qua non of fractals, nonlinearity. America's new financial engineers in their PC cubicle factories who have 'manufactured' derivatives have exponentialized debt. One defaulted real dollar now causes the leveraged disappearance of 5-50 fold virtual derivative dollars. This debt leverage will likely greatly accentuate the nonlinearity normally expected after a macroeconomic saturation area which is directly related to basic consumer asset and debt saturation. The ideal Lammert quantum fractal growth progression is found in 'The Economic Fractalist'. From its 16 August low, Gold, benefiting from dollar weakness, has followed a 11/28/22-23 day growth fractal with expected nonlinearity after the 22nd day of the second fractal.
posted 11/18/2007 at 11:30:50
Hedge Fund Pushes Delta To Merge With Rival United
If the current decay model is correct, the next major ideal low for the Wilshire will be in 5 trading days or on 21 November 2007. After the coming devolution, Is there one more three year, zero Fed Funds rate phase left for the US and global credit cycle?
posted 11/14/2007 at 18:10:03
Smart Advice for the HuffPost Investor
Trendlines and Lammert Fractal Progression

The US composite transportation index 5 year trendline has been breeched. The trendline for the composite Wilshire lies at about 600 points below its current value. Because bottom trendlines exactly determine the fractal units of quantum Lammert Fractal progession, there is a direct correlation to the larger use of trendlines to determine major directional changes. All growth and decay of asset valuations are based on available investment money which in turn is based on net macroeconomic money/credit growth or net macroeconomic money/growth decay. In the United States money growth is primarily a function of new debt growth.Two key elements of the potential new science of quantitative saturation macroeconomics are that money growth and debt has its limits and that growth to saturation areas occur in quantitative fractal patterns of tradeable composite asset valuations. This quantitative fractal progression is highly predictable. Money decay likewise occurs in quantitative fractal patterns, characterized by the sine qua non of fractals, nonlinearity. America's new financial engineers in their PC cubicle factories who have 'manufactured' derivatives have exponentialized debt. One defaulted real dollar now causes the leveraged disappearance of 5-50 fold virtual derivative dollars. This debt leverage will likely greatly accentuate the nonlinearity normally expected after a macroeconomic saturation area which is directly related to basic consumer asset and debt saturation. The ideal Lammert quantum fractal growth progression is found in 'The Economic Fractalist'. From its 16 August low, Gold, benefiting from dollar weakness, has followed a 11/28/22-23 day growth fractal with expected nonlinearity after the 22nd day of the second fractal.
posted 11/18/2007 at 10:48:52
Dow Ends Almost 320 Points Up
Continuing Wilshire Primary Decay or Third Fractal Growth?

From theeconomicfractalist: 12 November Update and corrections to 11 November Analysis: To the #2, #3, and #4 quantum Lammert base fractals listed in the 5 November posting: add 1 day: #2: 18-19/46-48/37-38/28-30 days X/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x); #3 16/39-40/39-40 days (y/2.5y/2.5y) commencing 22 October (as in the original 5 November posting); and #4 16/39-40/39-40 x/2.5x/2.5x respectively. ....as per the above ideal model, the turn occurred exactly....exactly on the 16th day.
posted 11/13/2007 at 17:52:51
Bernanke: U.S. Economy Likely To Slow
8 November 2007 - Second Fractal Synchronized Nonlinear Decay

The 50th day of a 20/50/50 x/2.5x/2.5x maximum Wilshire saturation fractal - with day 40 of the third fractal, 11 October 2007, the all-time nominal high - now sits midway between day 40, 11 October and day 60, 8 November. Day 60 for the Wilshire ended near a very weak intraday high, closing some 2 percent higher than its intraday low, and lower by 4.51 points or .03 percent than the 7 November close. The nature of the universe and its epiphenomena such as macroeconomics and quantum mechanics involving the substructure of the atom is numerical; to be redundant, quantum; and evolving in simple integer proportionalities. The secret to our energy universe involves the simple proportionality associations of its basic string energy units. The weakness of the Wilshire on 8 November 2007 which concluded a 3/7/6 fractal was most profound. There has been a recent bias to assume one more three year credit cycle promoted by zero Fed funds rates. This teleologically and intuitively would require a very structured decay fractal for the current devolution. Today's Wilshire valuation actions, indicates that a brutal nonlinear transition is possible. Is this the US's 149 year macroeconomic and debt saturation generational second fractal collapse?
posted 11/08/2007 at 18:24:00
Dow Plunges Over 300 Points On Weak Dollar
Gold x/2.5x/2.5x; the US Dollar x/2.5x?

8 November: The Lammert fractal growth of Gold now appears to be following a reciprocally matching deteriorating Lammert growth fractal for the US Dollar: 11/27-28/23 of 27-28 days: maximum growth fractal and 10/21 of 25 days, a first and maximum length second fractal series. The ideal expected major break day by quantum fractal analysis for the 15 trillion dollar Wilshire is Friday 9 November. 8 November could be quite a mini-disaster for those day traders shorting the equities.
posted 11/07/2007 at 20:42:12
$97: Oil Hits New High After Afghan Bombings, Yemen Pipeline Attack
Gold x/2.5x/2.5x; the US Dollar 2/2.5x?

7 Novmber: The Lammert fractal growth of Gold now appears to be following a reciprocally matching deteriorating Lammert growth fractal for the US Dollar: 11/28/22 of 27-28 days: maximum growth fractal and 10/20 of 25 days, a maximum second fractal series. The ideal expected major break day by Fractal analysis for the 15 trillion dollar Wilshire is Friday 9 November. For linear reasoners, the recent rate cuts by the Fed have been a US consumer inflationary and US dollar disaster; these fractal changes would likely have occurred anyway, albeit, to a lesser extent. The valuation fractals of the US Ten year note tells the true picture of foreign investment interest in US debt.
posted 11/07/2007 at 07:11:26
Will Oil Hit $100 This Week?
100 US dollar per barrel oil?

Unknown. For gold? On 6 November: a final Lammert growth fractal of : x/2.5x/2x or 11/27.5/22 of 22 days.
posted 11/05/2007 at 18:21:53
Oil And Gold Surge To New Highs
The Quantum Fractal Nature of Growth and Decay of the Macroeconomy

When the burdens of ongoing debt, cost of living inflation, asset over valuation, taxes, and consumer saturation exceed the rate of new debt growth by consumers , businesses, speculators, and governmental agencies- even when stimulated by lowering interest rates- , the growth of the money supply slows, crests to zero, and thereafter turns negative At the crest, the macroeconomy has reached a saturation point. Lammert Composite Equity Valuation Fractal Analysis most strongly suggests that growth to this saturation point and thereafter decline is well defined in simple mathematcal quantum valuation fractal patterns of the Wilshire, the composite equity index of the leading debt-dependent hegemony. These quantum fractals are based on the dynamic integration of intrinsic countervailing elements defined in the first sentence of the macroeconomic system - with human psychology and positive and negative emotions, the passive recipient of this ongoing quantum necessary mechanistic process. To know that the macroeconomic system is mechanistic, that it travels in growth and decay by discreet simple quantum mathematical fractal patterns, and that there are countervailing limits to money supply growth with consequent mechanistic necessary fractal decay - provides a powerful long range measuring and assessment tool for economists, monetary policy decision makers, politicians, and lending regulators. To understand the macroeconomy as a quantum mechanistic growth and decay feedback system with limitations to money expansion is to begin to be able to make prudent balanced policy and monetary choices about valued economic activity.
posted 11/03/2007 at 12:24:24
Fog or Cloud? GDP, Jobs and Everything Else
Lammert Decay Fractals

On 2 November 2007 euphoria reigned in the US Equity and Commodity markets. Especially giddy and delirious are the traders in the high end of the high tech stocks and in the oil and gold commodities and stocks. A qualitative glance at a long term chart shows a blow-off phenomena in all of these sectors. The Federal Reserve - with ongoing and forward knowledge obviously beyond the recently reported last quarter 3.9 per cent GDP growth - lowered the Fed Funds rate by 1/4 percent on 30 October. With a plummeting dollar, 90 plus US dollar oil, high 700 US dollar gold, and PE ratios of 45-50 in the high end of high tech stocks, the Federal Reserve indeed has special knowledge of the true status of the defaulting and debt-drowning US macroeconomy. Now as speculators further borrow to malinvest, as mutual fund managers place their last cash reserves on the equity roulette table, and as advertising lenders encourage homeowners to take out equity in their devaluing homes 'and balance their deteriorating real estate portfolio' by investing in the lower-interest-rate-enabled stock equity market, there is a sadness that central bankers are damaging, albeit transient, the American consumer and the American savers of US dollars. Very soon when the ongoing money supply devolution becomes apparent, the Federal Reserve's will be able to justify its counterintuitive recent actions. The policy makers will have the weak alibi that they did all they could to stave off the collapse. For the academic monetary policy experimenters, the enabled ongoing speculative market activity should demonstrate that inappropriately low interest rates and unregulated lending practices lead to only further inappropriate debt, malinvestment, over production, and more extreme over-valuation. Value added wealth to the real economy at the wage earner level is not created. The ultimate intent of Lammert quantitative valuation fractal analysis is to remove the fog and clouds and show the US macroeconomy, under the influence of extreme debt, as a predictive mechanistic self-balancing system that conforms to ideal quantum fractal growth and decay.
posted 11/04/2007 at 07:06:07
SEC To Look At Merrill Lynch's Hedge Fund Dealings
US Generational Macroeconomic Saturation and the Probable Wilshire Equity Valuation Decay Fractal Sequence.

Is 2007 'the' US generational macroeconomic saturation area? Or can the Federal Reserve and the Financial Lending Industry with near zero percent Fed Funds rates/ US short term Treasuries and easing credit standards, respectively, promote one additional 3 or so year credit cycle before the boomers retire and the combination of the emptiness of lock box, the indebtedness of US wage earners, and the inadequate tax base of the lower paying US service sector jobs becomes apparent? An argument could be made that for US equities and the US dollar, March 2000 was the generational saturation area with a drop of 25-50 percent of international US dollar and US equity purchasing value since that time. The apparent generational saturation area for gold was in 1979-1980. Gold since its peak in 1979-80 has lost more than 85 percent of its purchasing power relative to US equities. Can the Federal Reserve and Financial Lending Industry manufacture one more 36 month credit cycle before the collective obligations of US debt, US entitlement programs, US military expense of securing foreign oil fields, et. al. - overcome the system's borrowing sustainability?

Using Lammert fractal analysis in the context of the 11/27/22 month Wilshire fractal dating from October 2002 and the 75/150-187.5 week Wilshire fractal dating from March 2003, several precise daily predictions including the 11 October 2007 Wilshire high and small daily breaks of 2-2.5 percent been made. These short term prognostications using the possible new science and quantum mathematical laws are verifiable. The economic saturation curve area of end growth and beginning decay now appear to be highly idealized in terms of four quantum fractal mathematical laws of this potentially new macroeconomic science: an idealized maximal Lammert fractal growth pattern, an ideal Lammert growth and decay fractal pattern, an ideal Lammert fractal decay pattern. and a Lammert 'inverse of decay' growth fractal pattern. The trading week of 5-10 November will largely confirm this expected idealized pattern.
posted 11/04/2007 at 08:55:19
Wall Street Prepares For Rate Cut
The Finale? - A 3/8/8 day Fractal?

With October 11 - the third day of the first fractal....
posted 10/31/2007 at 07:10:06
Second Fractal Synchronization And Nonlinear Decay Fractals

New Century ended down a penny or twenty percent, to 4 pennies. Save for the small dip in consumer confidence, the linear official federal economic parameters regarding America's current macroeconomy look ..... adequate. Long term macroeconomic saturation valuation fractals - and five fold, and for a short time transiently six-fold, second fractal synchronization - reveal something very different. There are self-limiting elements of the saturated macroeconomy that auto regulate the effects of interest rate manipulation. Leading to the saturation area, each generational credit cycle has had its own unique valuation fractal patterns in tradeable items such as equities, debt instruments, and commodities. This credit cycle is unique in the amount of debt the world's leading hegemony has taken on and the amount of enabling credit that the producer states have so reciprocally extended. The fractally time denominated valuation units are the minutely, daily, weekly, yearly summation composite representations of ongoing processes within the macroeconomy::: saturation of debt, inflationary cost of living, ongoing lending parameters, asset overproduction and ongoing devaluation, and ongoing wages of jobs - all occurring simultaneously and interactively - and all within a multiply saturated macroeconomy. The overwhelming debt this credit cycle has 'quantumized' the fractal patterns into ideal growth patterns. Raise, lower, or leave interest rates unchanged: the self balancing macroeconomy will overcome manipulation. In a nonlinear system, expect (first decay fractal break-point) nonlinearity.
posted 10/30/2007 at 22:50:25
All Eyes On The Fed
The Historic US Buffalo Head Nickel

Your western heads here cast on money,
You are the two that fade away together,
Partners in the mist.

Lunging buffalo shoulder,
Lean Indian face,
We who come after where you are gone
Salute your forms on the new nickel.

You are
To us:
The past.

Runners
On the prairie:
Good-by.

Carl Sandburg

New Century ended today ... down over 20 percent to rest at a solitary Buffalo Head... yet infinitely above its final resting place. For Carl Sandburg...The Big bosses at the banks.... work their magic ... with sledge hammers...... Gold ... 9-11/25/19 of 20 days... and about 20-25 percent of its 1980 worth...in US Buffalo Head Nickels.....
posted 10/29/2007 at 19:50:12
Oil Hits New High...Dollar Hits New Low
Etwas muss geschehen (something must be done) -The 18 September Experiment

On 18 September the Federal Reserve with its 0.5 percent decrease in the Fed Funds rate made an attempt to avert a global depression. Averting a global depression is a very good thing. Unfortunately the Federal Reserve's tools are limited, gross, and inadequate in helping wage-limited consumers maintain possession of their wage disconnected and overvalued homes and life styles. The Reserve's tools are analogous to repairing a malfunctioning delicate carburetor by hard rapping it with a sledge hammer. With use of this available tool, in less than 30 trading days, the US dollar lost 2.5 percent of its global purchasing power, oil increased by 14 or so US dollars to above 91 dollars, the CRB made a new high, the Wilshire made a new high, and the 30 year US mortgage rates changed from a mid September rate of 6.28 percent to 6.31 percent - but better than a year ago's rate of 6.49 percent. Mal investment and inflation proliferated, home owner interest rates were mostly unaffected, and energy dependent US jobs were likely adversely affested. It is unclear if the American consumer can take much more of the Federal Reserve's help. Nevertheless etwas muss geschehen and the probable consequences of a global depression make all possible remedies justifiable. Even if zero US Fed funds rates somehow transiently averted a global depression, the new Federal Chairman can see the writing on the wall that sometime during his tenure - possibly when the boomers begin retiring in mass and collecting social security from the lock box, the non sustainable system will implode. From the August 16 low the Lammert growth fractal for the Great Wilshire is 17-18/35 days, for GM: 17-18//12/24// and (from the 1 August low) for the Toll Brothers: 12/28/24 days. The 11 October 20/50/40 day high for the Wilshire remains intact.
posted 10/27/2007 at 09:26:39
Subprime Mortgage Meltdown Expected To Be Costlier Than S&L Crisis Of 1990s
The Hypothesis of Quantum Fractal Macroeconomic Saturation: GM and the World

Hypothesis: "a proposition tentatively assumed in order to draw out its logical or empirical consequences and test its consistency with facts that are either known or may be determined; a condition of the most genuinely scientific hypothesis is that it be â�� of such a nature as to be ... either proved or ....disproved by comparison with observed facts.....

Within GM's growth fractals lies the the secret of the global macroeconomy. GM, more than the crumbling housing industry and more than the destabilized financial industry, remains the optimal marker for the fortunes of the American consumer. It is the sustainability and fortunes and fate of the American consumer that parallel and in actually in 2007 are ... those of the global macroeconomy. After the 32 month deluge in 2000, the Federal Reserve along with its unregulated confederate partners in the financial industry thrust the American consumer into the role of lendee and US money expander of last - or second to last - resort. Offering lending deals simply too good to be true - rivalling the the ten per cent margin of the 1920's, the financial industry and its associates - enabled by the Federal Reserve - lended money with such incredible inane parameters to American consumers, that a bubble was created beyond all preceding proportions. In this reckless and unstable scenario, the automobile represents a necessary and replaceable durable good item - needed to maintain the wages of American consumers, which are in turn so needed to maintain debt obligation payment. GM is a true bell weather for the whole global macroeconomy. GM is at week 32 of a 15/36/32 of 30-36 week fractal and day day 50 of a 20/50/50 day fractal. From its low in March 2007 the Wilshire shares a caricatured 12/30/20 fractal with the third fractal's 20 days commencing a sequence similar to GM: a 20/50/50 day fractal with the last 50 days formed by a 17/34 day fractal and 11 October day 40 of the third fractal.
posted 10/25/2007 at 20:03:42
Countrywide Offers "Unprecedented Remedies" To Struggling Mortgage Holders
The Great Fractal and Macroeconomic Phase Transition.....?

24 October 2007 completed a 20/49/49 day growth period for the Great Wilshire with a low on 16 August at day 49 near 2.5X of the second fractal, a gapped high on day 40 (2x) of the third fractal and a secondary lower high on day 49 (2.5x) of the third fractal. A great phase transition will soon occur for the world economy, commodities, equities, gold, and the US dollar. The weak link New Century broke down (as anticipated) on day 31 of 15/31 day fractal losing 16 percent to 6 and 3/10 pennies. Expect a reckoning transition .... for the Global Macroeconomy.
posted 10/24/2007 at 18:27:37
Apple Profits Leap 67 Percent
23 October Finale? The Dogs and the Eagles

New Century, the financial engineering symbol of America's last half decade of debt driven prosperity lost 25 percent of its value on 22 October to close at 7 and 1/2 pennies, a record low and 99.8 percent lower than its 65 or so dollar high. It is following a 14-15/29 of 30 day fractal. Toll Brothers, representing the manufacturing end of New Century is following a 11-12/27-28/21 of 22-24 fractal; it is about 35 percent of its multi year high. The soaring eagle, Google, will likely make a new, probably gapped, high today following a 6/14/14 of 14 day growth fractal - and the Wilshire will follow a caricatured version of Google's terminal fractal growth pathway -but not nearly a new high. Apple is a good company too - with a PE ratio of slightly over 49. Expect the unexpected.
posted 10/23/2007 at 06:20:15
Bank Of America Earnings Much Lower Than Expected
At the Break Point...

The terminal x/2.5x/2.5x maximal fractal growth pattern for Bank of America was discussed in the last economicfractallist post. Its recent past, ongoing, and coming losses are staggering. The financial and banking industries are and will serve as ready US borrowers of last resort - along with the US government - borrowing from the central bank and in the case of the US government - from itself and its future taxpayers. The banking-financial industry will replace the borrowing of the American consumer but the industry's net loss-profit balance will be either negative or marginal for many years. Bad unsound loans were made to capture loan origination fees and market share, derivatives have exponentialized excesses and the outcomes of non sustainable bad guesses - the whole US financial-banking industry and their proxy equities have become, in the last four trading days, the leading economic indicators of the coming devolution. The great Wilshire is at the edge with 11 October, the nominal 217 year high. Now there are four synchronized second fractal's with bases of 70 years, 8 years, 75 weeks, and 17 days. Expect the unexpected....
posted 10/18/2007 at 19:57:22
U.S. Treasury Secretary Warns Of Even More Housing Woes
The Final Lammert Fractal Growth Pattern from 16 August 2007?

From the 16 August low 2 sequential fractals: a 3/7-8/6/4 day fractal (x/2.5x/2x/1.5x) followed by a 6/14/10 day fractal; the last 10 day third subfractal made of a 2/5/5 day pattern with day 5 of the second fractal, the all time gapped high reversal day on 11 October and day 40 of a 20/49/40 day fractal.
posted 10/17/2007 at 07:03:38
Stocks Advance On Positive Economic Data
Global Money-Debt-Wage-Asset Price Dyseqilibrium and Global Saturation Macroeconomics: Another Quantum fractal Pattern For The Great Wilshire Along its Probable Saturation Asymptotic Curve.

The US and global macroeconomy are in great dysequibrium with regards to international wages, debt burden, balance of trade, savings, and inflationary pressure with origins in NAFTA-like outsourcing and inadequately high US interest rates and regulation-less lending parameters. Intuitively and by econimc history, there are self correcting limits to the amount of dysequilibrium a system can contain before undergoing devolution. Under the conditions of enormous debt financed growth, does the macroeconomy of the leading debtor nation - proxy for the health of the global economy - follow quantum patterns of growth leading to a maximum asset valuation saturation asymptote? The Wilshire fractal pattern leading to a possible saturation fractal pattern commences from its low on 14 March 2007 with a pattern of 13/30/20 days. 11 May 2007 concluded the 30 day second fractal. The Wilshire's'final x/2.5x/2x (to 2.5x) saturation fractal series'' begins with the 20 day third third fractal of the preceding three phase growth series. Starting on 11 May this series, as of 13 October, has progressed in a 20/49/41 day fractal pattern with 16 August at the 49 day 2.5x low and 11 October at the 40 day 2x high. On 11 October 2007 the Wilshire gapped in a minutely fashion at the day's opening above its previous day's closing high and to a new record high. At its close it was near the low of the trading day and below the preceding day's close. This exhaustion gap activity for the Great Wilshire occurred on 40th or 2x day of the defined 20/49/40 day saturation fractal series. From the lows on day 40 on 11 October, a perfect 6/14/12 x/2.5x/2x 15-minute unit fractal can be easily observed taking the Wilshire to its close on 12 October 2007. Will the 20/49 40 day fractal series proceed further .... to 20/49/49-50? Not likely.
posted 10/14/2007 at 11:26:17
A Tale of Two Headlines: The Above and on the same day: 'Retailers Lower Forecasts Amid Bleak Sales Reports'

In America's debt driven economy, it is the caboose otherwise known as the American consumer - with four wheels off the track and two broken axles - that will drag the economy into further recession and likely much worse. It is the American consumer who is at the generational debt saturation and asset overvaluation point. Stagnant wages from service jobs cannot support the cost of rising debt load, inflationary cost of daily living, asset overvaluation, and increased related taxes. This wage-debt-cost-of-living imbalance prevents further net consumer borrowing. New college graduates facing this maelstrom have acccumulated a half trilion dollars of federal student loan debt. For the Wilshire, along the saturation curve's asymptote, a 40//(26/52 of 52-65//2x day decay fractal may be operative. Day 51, 11 October 2007, fits the technical description of a final top. The Federal Reserve's new chairman can be credited for enhancement and fractal caricature of the mini equity and commodity bubble from 18 September, but not for the fractal time frame. He will soon have time to experiment with his monetary theories of Federal Reserve aggressive intervention to prevent a 19291939 30-50 per cent GDP decline scenario.
posted 10/12/2007 at 21:58:56
Smart Advice for the HuffPost Investor
The Great Wilshire Saturation Fractal Pattern

The current Wilshire fractal pattern of interest starts from the low on 14 March 2007 with a pattern of 13/30/20 days. 11 May 2007 concluded the 30 day second fractal. The Wilshire's'final x/2.5x/2x (to 2.5x) saturation fractal series'' begins with the 20 day third fractal of the preceding growth series. Starting on 11 May this series, as of 13 October, has progressed in a 20/49/41 day fractal pattern with 16 August at the 49 day 2.5x low and 11 October at the 40 day 2x high. On 11 October 2007 the Wilshire gapped in a minutely fashion at the day's opening above its previous day's closing high and to a new record high. At its close it was near the low of the trading day and below the preceding day's close. This exhaustion gap activity for the Great Wilshire occurred on 40th or 2x day of the defined 20/49/40 day saturation fractal series. From the lows on day 40 on 11 October, a perfect 6/14/12 x/2.5x/2x 15-minute unit fractal can be easily observed taking the Wilshire to its close on 12 October 2007. Even with the pricing aberration and fractal caricaturization associated with the largely unanticipated 0.5 per cent Fed Funds rate cut, if the Wilshire's price-volume-time multiple and area under the curve for July 2007 ultimately exceeds that of its recent October price-volume-time integration, the 11/27/22 monthly Wilshire high will maintain its position as the price-volume-time composite valuation high for the asymptotic area of Wilshire's saturation curve - proxy for the global macroeconomic system. Will the 20/49 40 day fractal series proceed further .... to 20/49/49-50? Not likely.
posted 10/14/2007 at 10:34:17
Giuliani: Our Economy "Is The Last Best Hope Of Humanity"
Mega Euphoria Present - What are the likely characteristics of the final high valuation trading day for the world proxy composite equity index, the Great Wilshire?

The US macroeconomy and credit markets are sehr schlecht. This politician like all others, is clueless. Yet the equity and commodity markets are blowing off in volcanic-like fashion. How will the final composite equity final high valuation day likely appear? Look at the great Wilshire for a minutely all time gapped high day above its previous day's closing high - and ending on the low of the day. That will likely be the final saturation footprint. Gold valuations, representative of various forms of global fiat money competing for solid tradeable, inheritable, nontaxable assets, completed a 11/27 to 28 day first and second fractal from the unified 16 August low. Will gold's growth valuation proceed to a third daily fractal? It Will l- if there is enough investment money to support third fractal growth. A lot of enhanced investment borrowing is now transpiring since the Fed lowered the borrowing rate below that necessary level controlling speculative equity asset inflation. How will the Federal Reserve's 18 September decision turn out?
posted 10/09/2007 at 19:49:57
Australian Dollar Hits 23-Year High Against US
Generational US Consumer Saturation Macroeconomics - 11 October 2007: the Top Valuation Day for the Wilshire ?; near the final weekly low for the US dollar?

Watch for an opening day trading gap to the all time high for the Wilshire on 11 October with a closing at the low of the day. While the US dollar will likely be lower against other fiats and gold, it is near its multiweekly nadir.
posted 10/10/2007 at 22:23:35
Greenspan: U.S. Economic Growth Slowing
Generational Consumer Saturation Macroeconomics

Euphoria at the Top: Google Valuations above 609, A New High For the Nasdaq, Expected Future Lower Fed Funds Rates Supportive of Continued Speculation, And, Of Course, the Sage Musings of the Former Federal Reserve Chairman

Google, whose third fractal week 58 of a 29/72/58 week fractal series, now rests in a cup mid position between week 52 and 64 helped the NASDAQ make a new record high on 8 October 2007. The great Wilshire was unable to best its 5 October 2007 valuation and ended the 8 October trading day with a caricatured 10/25/22 5-minute fractal series with 5-minute number 20 of the third fractal representing the late high for the x/2.5x/2x 5-minute fractal growth series. Monsanto MON, undergoing a pictorial blow-off since the Wilshire's 16 August low - and Google - both share the strained properties of PE ratios greater than 45 and a greater than 800 percent valuation growth within less than 5 years. GM is at week 30 of a 15/36/30 of 30 week fractal and likely at day 10 of a 4/10/10 maximal daily growth series. With the problematic housing market and the problematic credit markets askew from past and ongoing highly leveraged losses related to that same housing market and with the linearly possible inflationary pressures brought about by the recent interest rate cuts by the new Federal Reserve Chairman, it is reassuring that the former Federal Reserve Chairman has guesstimated a US recession risk of less than 50/50. He is widely acknowledged to be a very smart man.
posted 10/08/2007 at 18:52:27
'Teflon Investors': Stocks On The Rise Despite Shaky Economy
5 October: The Federal Reserve Induced Euphoria- The Minutely Gap to a New High for the Great Wilshire - at Day 36 of a possible 14-15/36/36 day Terminal Growth Fractal Series

There have been only 2 days of easily discernible transient fractal perturbations caused by external world events in the last 5 years. One occurred on 7 July 2005 with the London bombings and the second occurred with the 0.5 vice expected 0.25 Fed Funds rate cut on 18 September 2007. Unlike the Japanese, German, French, British, Canadian, Mexican, Swiss,and Taiwanese equity markets, the Federal Reserve induced malinvestment took the US 's homegrown Wilshire above its previous July highs and dropped the US dollar perhaps little lower than its necessary nadir point in a declining 3/7/7 day fractal. The Wilshire gapped above its closing high of 19 July 2007 on day 36 of the third 36 day 2.5x fractal of a 14-15/36/36 day series. Last week GM completed week 29 of a 15/36/29 of 29-30 week fractal. Will the 8 trading day valuation (price x volume) integrative top for the great Wilshire from 12-23 July 07 best an integrative top of the highest 8 trading days containing Friday 5 October 07's remarkable gapped new record high day? With a background of contracting US housing and financial industries, investment dollars are now clearly focused on the commodity and equity markets. Conditions of terminal malinvestment euphoria, characteristic of the housing bubble at its peak in 2005 have shifted to the equity and commodity markets. Could the composite equities progress to 11/27/27 months? Gold, the Swiss Franc, and Euro share the Wilshire's 14(-15)/36/36 day pattern. The US dollar after making a 3/7/7 fractal low has the possibility of a positive growth first fractal of 6 to 8 days. The Euro/Swiss Franc, and British Pound all appear to be following a 19/47/37 of 37 to 38 week terminal growth pattern.
posted 10/08/2007 at 06:27:01
Stocks End Higher Ahead Of Jobs Report
The 11/27/22 Month X/2.5X/2X 15 Trillion Dollar Wilshire Lammert Growth Fractal: The Mathematical Quantum Fractal Nature of Global Macroeconomic Saturation

The Wilshire has likely put in its a secondary top on day 35 of a 14-15/36/35 of 35-36 day fractal - secondary to its all time nominal high on 19 July 2007. The US Central Bank policy makers abetted the finishing touches of malinvestment with their .5 percent Fed Funds drop. They had little choice but to do so. After the FR exposed its futureintentions, a few former savers in money market funds and interest bearing accounts - looking at probable further lower returns in the future - threw in the towel to malinvest in equities and commodities along with the always eager mutual fund managers who drew down a few more of last .01 percentages of mutual fund cash reserves. As the dollar sank along a 3/8/8 decay fractal to a new low, the dollar denominated CRB reciprocated the decline, climbing to a new 222 year US high. From its shared equity low in August, gold followed a 11/22 day fractal to a second fractal high with gaps on day 21 and 22. The macroeconomic world appears amorphous, complex and linear. It is in reality .... quantum .... simple ..... and nonlinear.
posted 10/04/2007 at 18:17:32

Saturation Macroeconomics and the ubiquitous quantum x/2.5x/2x and x/2.5x/2.5x Lammert growth fractals: http://www.economicfractalist.com/

2007-12-09T14:44:00.000-08:00

Saturation Macroeconomics and the ubiquitous quantum x/2.5x/2x and x/2.5x/2.5x Lammert growth fractals.

Subtitle: What the Wilshire's deteriorating 16 August three phase growth fractal pattern reveals about the true Macroeconomy and its money growth velocity: the Wilshire's third fractal's collapsing performance.

There are counterbalancing countervailing limits to aggregate money growth. 19 July 2007 and 11 October 2007 predicted by quantum fractal analysis represent those limits.

The banking and associated corporate financial system runs on liquidity and positive cash flow. At macroeconomic saturation areas, saturation areas defined by limiting non payable debt, asset overvaluation, and wages incapable of supporting low interest rate associated and lending variable associated inflationary cost of essential daily need ed to live items, there is an acute inflection - where the underlying real over valued debt liabilities abruptly emerge and cash flow abruptly halts. The complex interdependent series of the financial industries' short term debt obligations can not be repaid and the whole system comes to an abrupt halt. The recent injections of 500 billion equivalent US dollars by the world central banks have kept the fragile system afloat - for a while. Those short term loans delayed a disastrous system lock-up, now add in a small way to the total debt with requirements for interest repayments- and have provided breathing room time for the financial industries to assess the dire state of affair and possibly renegotiate and reorganize as possible their short term debt relationships. As well the Federal Reserve has lowered the discount rate three times: 17 August, 18 September, and 31 October and the Fed Funds rate on the latter two dates - and will likely do so again on 11 December.

In spite of the massive short term central bank loans and reduction of interbank bank lending rates, the Wilshire's 16 August fractal progression is clearly deteriorating. Since 16 August, the Wilshire has followed a 17+/44 day first and second fractal growth pattern. The third fractal pattern begins with a deteriorating lower low pattern and thereafter is curvilinear positive for a possible final curvilinear fractal pattern of 4/10/10 days with the final 10 day third subfractal pattern having positive valuation and December 7 as the final lower high.

There are other final short term growth possibilities. One alternative is a final fractal pattern with the terminal 3 days of the 10 day second subfractal forming the base of this final fractal growth pattern: 3/7/4 of 4-6 days. This would put the final Wilshire lower high also on 7 December - or possibly on 10/11 December.

The European Equity indices third subfractal growth patterns have recently somewhat diverged from the Wilshire. The Nikkei 's fractal growth pattern - whose 17 day first fractal pattern was identical to the Wilshire, CAC, DAX, and FTSE shows what happens in an environment where interest rates can no longer be significantly lowered. A portion of the Nikkei's deteriorating third fractal lies below the 16 August low.

GE, the largest of the Wilshire units has followed the Nikkei with a portion of the third fractal below the 16 August low. GE's 17+/44 day first and second series display the characteristic nonlinearity decline of the second fractal. Its third fractal is composed of two fractal growth series: - a 2/5/5 day deteriorating growth or simply decay fractal followed by a 3/7/4 day positive growth fractal series with the intraday low of day 7 of the second fractal below the 16 August intraday low. From its March 2007 low GE currently rests in an apparent completed fashion at 7/17/17 weeks. GE is likely under performing the Wilshire because of its substantial corporate component participation in the debt industry.

Google appears near completion currently on week 72 of a 29/72-73/72 of 72-73 week pattern.

On 7 December New Century now at 2 and 4/10 pennies completed day 28 of a 14/35/28 of 28 day fractal which might extend to a 28 of 28-35 day fractal.

The CRB from its 16 August low has followed a 9/21/21 pattern and thereafter a 5-6/14-15/14 of 14-15 day pattern near its all time high valuation and- with a timing consistent the above Wilshire final fractal growth models.

Since the end of 2000 gold and the gold equity indices XAU/HUI have been interesting within the context of gold's 7/17/14 year fractal series.From the 16 August low gold has conformed to a perfect Lammert progression x/2.5x/2x/1.5x or 11/28/22/18 days. Since making a low on day 18 it has traversed laterally in valuation. Gold equities (NEM eg) have followed a fractal pattern curiously similar to the CRB: a 9/22/18 pattern followed by a 7/15/14 of 14-15 day pattern. Gold's under performance from 1996 to 2000 relative to equities and other commodities likely underscores its true value in the 21 century.
The fractal pattern from 2000 for the combined/ gold/gold equities is approximately 27-30/56-59 months. The second fractal's completion at 2x is due with devaluation nonlinearity of 11-15 months ahead. Note that this decay would time well with a Wilshire's expected 11/27/22/18 month fractal completion.

With the lowering of interest rates and supportive central bank money injection, there is both new speculative interest - and malinvestment competitive interest - as treasuries and mutual funds are generating lower yields for savers - in a currently high inflationary environment. The Federal Reserve may well understand that inflation will recede in the next several months as the real consumer economy undergoes retrenchment. For the pensioner and saver, who see daily living prices real time, the lowered yields may incentivize them to errantly redistribute and malinvest their assets in the speculative equity markets, which historically have generally done well in a declining interest rate environment.

For the Wilshire 2 of the prior 4 primary fractal decay models remain viable: 1.the 9/23/23 day primary decay sequence with day 40 or 11 October 2007 of a 20/50/40 day finial high growth fractal contained within the 9 day first fractal base and 2. the 16/40/40 day decay model with day 50 of a 20/50/50 similar final growth fractal contained in the 16 day first fractal base.

The 9/23/23 Wilshire decay fractal model would suggest a primary decay sequence with two longer secondary and tertiary fractals to follow. A 16/40/40 decay sequence would suggest that zero Fed interest rates might allow a third fractal in a possible weekly series of 75/187-188/ 121.5-150 weeks. In this scenario, inflation of the CRB: gold, oil, and grains might be substantially supported both by foreign holdings of US dollars and further devaluation of the dollar (after its current 15 or so week rally. This scenario might take physical gold from its current 7/17/14 year growth fractal starting in 1970 to a 7/17/17 year final growth fractal ending in approximately 2010. Fractal growth for gold equities are offset from the actual metal and appear to be following a 7/17/11year growth fractal.starting in 1978.

Valuation Saturation Fractal Analysis - A Real Science?

2007-11-25T14:38:00.000-08:00

November 25, 2007
The process of validation for the hypothesis of quantum fractal growth and decay of asset valuation as precisely representative of a heretofore unknown intrinsic quantitative operative nature of the complex macroeconomic system, was earlier proposed in the final update of The Economic Fractalist: " Saturation Curve Fractal Analysis - A Real Science? In order to qualify as a true science, the subject entity must be testable by scientific method and have underlying laws that operate in the real physical environment. These laws must be repetitively provable and have reasonable predictability for different applications. Scientific testing in college biology, chemistry, and physics laboratories usually results in experimental values that roughly support the underlying mathematical equations and theoretical constructs. If indeed complex economic systems travel by the simple quantum laws that observational fractal analysis suggests, a similar validity should be testable and provable, retrospectively and prospectively, in the great laboratory of readily obtainable asset valuation saturation curves."
The valuations of General Motors have often been used because of GM's remarkable likeness at small scale to the United States' current position of debt, entitlements, obligations, and global competitiveness. GM's second subfractal of 15/36/30 x/2.5x/2x weeks with its recent decline below its one year trendline has been used a proxy microcosm marker for the United States' true underlying debt-driven supporting money supply. Because of its largeness and its plurality of world equity value, the Wilshire's hourly, daily, weekly, monthly valuations have been primarily used to examine and test the macro performance of simple 'laws' contained within ' The Economic Fractalist ' macroeconomic saturation quantum fractal hypothesis: the elegantly simple fractal growth proportionality relationship: x/2.5x/2x, the second fractal's sine qua non nonlinearity between 2x and 2.5x, the primary simple decay relationships conforming generally to a y/2.5y/2.5y fractal pattern, and the principal that decay is confluent and begins in the terminal portion of growth. The Wilshire's saturation tops of 19 July 2007 and 11 October 2007 were prospectively identified using the simple quantum relationships. The Wilshire's 11/27/22 x/2.5x/2x month growth from October 2002 and 75/150 week x/2x growth since March 2003 resulted in the saturation July 2007 top. The Wilshire's day- price-volume triple-product area of May-June-July 2007 still exceeds that of the September-October-November 2007 similar triple-product area. July's 20 day third fractal of a12/30/20 day fractal sequence became the base for a 20/50/40 day fractal sequence ending on 11 October 2007. 11 October is contained within a second fractal with a 17-18 day first fractal base beginning on 16 August. 11 October may well be contained within the first decay base with synchronized classic and caricatured second fractal decay of multiple first fractal bases of 70 years, 8 years, 75 weeks, 62 weeks, and 41 weeks. There are four competing simple mathematical models of quantum fractal decay representing this nonlinear synchronized second fractal area.. Currently as of 25 November, the 13/24 of 32-33/32-33 day decay fractal appears most likely. If this model is correct the Wilshire's 5 year trendline will likely be breached between days 26 and 32-33 of the second fractal. If this decay model is correct, it is likely that gold and oil will also see devaluation during this time frame with the dollar gaining in valuation against other currencies. The other fractal possibility from the 16 August low is a 17-18/44/11 of 34-35 day deteriorating growth fractal. If there is enough ongoing debt expansion, perhaps via the vehicle of holiday seasonal debt, the composite US equity markets could positively maintain its third fractal growth until the new year. Decay after this point would still be within the time frame area of synchronized second fractal nonlinearity and consistent with the underlying quantum laws.

Lammert Quantitative Saturation and Decay Macroeconomics

2007-11-22T04:49:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of cause and effect saturation and decay macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and economic cycles is both causal and quantitatively decipherable. Valuations conform to fractal cyclical patterns that can be recognized, interpreted in conjunction with data emanating from the macroeconomic system, and used with short term and long-term predicative power. Information from this site is not intended to be construed as investment advice or as an investment tool. This site has been constructed because of the expected inevitability of a major sudden phase transition to occur at the conclusion of a grand 140 plus-year second fractal cycle starting in 1858. For the masses this phase transition will occur both very unexpectedly and very suddenly. Approaching the global macro economy from such a causal and fractal Weltanschauung may help those considering further debt obligation and those in position of formulating future interest rate and monetary policy. The cyclical nature of the macroeconomic system operates by causality rather than chance. Valuations of assets are controlled chiefly by interest rates - the cost of money. Lowering nominal interest rates, below asset inflation controlling rates, leads to macro economical disequilibria with excessive money expansion through increased borrowing. This borrowing and money expansion is enhanced by lending parameters and devices which include various types of fractional of derivative lending. This money expansion engenders unbalanced forward consumption, consumer saturation, overproduction, and inflation of assets and consumer items. With the addition of ongoing wages of the consumer masses and accumulating debt service obligations, these oppositional elements are countervailing, and periodic macroeconomic imbalances will self correct. Market overvaluation saturation and decay corrections to new lower saturation points occur in a fractal manner. Cyclical patterns can readily be identified on valuation charts denominated in minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly units. The transitional asymptote of overvaluation saturation curves are followed by decay curves which bring market valuations to lowered decay saturation levels where intelligent buyers reenter the market. Valuation fractal cycles of yearly and multi-yearly lengths are based on saturation at the consumer level. Human psychology is a decidedly lagging indicator and follows as an end effect of the mechanistic saturation and decay evolutions in the market. Market contrarians understand these turning points and anticipate the directional changes of the markets based both on market asymptotic overvaluation saturation areas or decay end-point saturation characteristics and counter intuitively by recognizing the lagging psychological parameters of extreme optimism or pessimism in reaction to the mechanistic respective high and low points. Both the degree of valuation and the cyclical time course of valuation evolutions appear to conform to range bound near quantum-like units and quantum related Fibonacci numbers. While the absolute degree of valuation is influenced by the absolute interest rate, the percentage or proportionality changes of valuations from highs to lows and lengths of time to decay and intra-cycle nodal points appear to conform to these range bound near quantum units. The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X followed by a decay sequence of 1.5-1.6X; many ideal decay fractal sequences devolve in a Y/2.5Y/2.5Y fractal sequence. 'X' and 'Y' represents the fractal unit of time demoninated in minutes, hours, days, weeks, month and years. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. The second cycle may be composed of two roughly equal time units or one confluent time unit. A sudden nonlinear drop during the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x, which has import for the current 140 year grand fractal cycle, now in its 147th year. . The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. The current 70 year second fractal subfractal generational saturation area is characterized by extreme debt of the leading economic power and its citizen consumers. Quantum Fractal evolution has become idealized allowing precise predictions of both the 17 July 2007 and 11 October 2007 saturation highs for the Wilshire, America's 15 trillion dollar valuation composite equity market and the global macroeconomy's proxy quantitative and quantum fractal barometer. ..................................................................................................................................... Wilshire Decay fractal possibilities:
................................................................................................................................. Wlshire Decay Models A, B, C, and D as of 21 November: ..................................................................................................................................... A 9/22 of 23/23 days B 11/23 of 27-28/27-28 days ( a rerun of 1929) C 13/23 of 32/32 days and D 16/8 of 40/40 days with day 27 of the third fractal a major low and day 40 a final lower low. ............................................................................................................................... Decay Models A, B, and C are 1929 scenarios representing a primary decay followed by an expected 25-30 months of secondary and tertiary decay to a final low in 2010. ............................................................................................................................... Decay Model D implies one further 28-36 or so month credit cycle bolstered by zero fed funds rates and some sort of debt postponement or debt rescheduling scheme with a probable secondary lower peak in 2010. Even the latter possible transient best case scenario Model D, would be adversely impacted by inflation and peak oil.