Monday, February 16, 2026
The 5 Oct 2025 To 16 February 2026 45-46% Bitcoin in USD Crash Precedes the Global Equity Crash
In the Asset Debt Macroeconomy the valuation of individual asset classes are denominated in the summation valuation of all other classes including debt instruments: sovereign, non financial and financial corporate, and private debt. Out of the 346 trillion dollars of global collective debt, The US has about 102 trillion.
When non-debt assets are overvalued relative to the underlying collective consumer base economy {after consumers pay for the necessary and inflating activities of daily living(including accumulated debt)}, and consumers can no longer collectively expand their balance sheet thru further debt expansion, generic product demand falls, businesses fail, lower quality corporate debt undergoes default, unemployment grows, and the system’s asset prices fall.
The global composite equity index ACWI peak valuation was on 11 February 2026. Crypto currencies as represented by bitcoin in USD peaked on 5 Oct 2025 at about 126,350 and are currently on 16 Feb 2026 at about 68-69000, a 45-46% drop from peak valuation.
The current daily fractal decay model from 20 November 2025 for Bitcoin in USD which trades 7 days a week including holidays and for the ACWI global equity index which trades 5 days a week less US equity holidays have merged with an expected crash nadir low for ACWI on Friday 10 April 2026 and for Bitcoin in USD on (Saturday) 11 April 2026.
The 10 April 2026 initial crash nadir completes a 27 Oct 2023 3-phase 120/243/254 day :: y/2-2.5y/2.5y (2X' 214 day peak valuation) and crash decay fractal series.
For the 254 day 7 April 2025 3rd Fractal of this 27 Oct 2023 120/243/254-255 day peak growth and initial crash decay series, a 7 April 2025 53/107/97 days :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y’ 3 phase peak valuation growth and initial crash decay series will be completed on 10 April 2026.
Fractal self assembly of the 1st and 2nd Fractal above is shown below:
Sunday, February 15, 2026
1982 to 2026 1st and 2nd Fractal 13/33 Year Terminal 27 Oct 2023 Daily Fractal Growth and 27 Oct 2023 Initial Daily Fractal Crash Decay
The crypto class peaked in Oct 2025 following a 2015 GBTC proxy 41/83 month :: x/2x+ peak valuation 1st and 2nd Fractal Cycle with a 45-60% crypto asset class devaluation since the peak representing a trillion dollar plus loss of valuation. With the anti-institutional policies and the weakening of the American hegemony, terminal global money has flowed into gold and silver with over a 100 % appreciation for silver in less than 50 trading days and thereafter a one day flash crash on 30 Jan 2026 of 35%. ACWI, the global equity composite registered a all-time high valuation on 11 February 2026.
Considering the US contracting consumer economy underpinning US and global growth, has the summation valuation of all asset classes already reached its integrated peak? Or will new debt following AI's allurement be created at a rate necessary to propel further summation asset valuation growth?
The 13/33 year 1982 1st and 2nd fractal series are composed of 51-52/126 of 128-130 quarters. The current 126 quarters is composed of two fractal subseries: a 1994 10/25/25 quarter 3-phase series :: x/2.5x/2.5x fractal series ending in Mar 2009 and a 11-12/29-30/30 quarter :: maximum 3-phase x/2.5x/2.5x growth fractal series ending Jan-March 2026. The final 30 quarter 3rd fractal of the March 2009 11-12/29-30/30 quarter fractal series is composed of a 6/12/14 quarter :: x/2x/2.5x fractal subseries starting in Dec 2018 with the first 6 quarters ending with an aberrant low (below the trend line)in Mar 2020 caused by the 15% Covid related unemployment.
Global equity may have peaked on 11 Feb 2026 with 27 Oct 2023 self-assembled fractal growth: a 3-phase 120/243/213 day :: x/2x/(2x'+) fractal growth series which concludes with a 27 Oct 2023 120/243/254 day :: y/2y+/2y+ initial decay series.
Sunday, February 8, 2026
The Current 1982 to 2026 Lammert SPX Fractal Model
Cryptocurrencies reached a GBTC EFF proxy 41/83 month :: x/2x maximum fractal peak valuation in Oct 2025 under the umbrella of the SPX and global equities 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x maximum fractal growth peak. Peak asset class valuations within the macroeconomic asset-debt system have been stretched thru optimal conditions: financial engineering and recent cherry-on-top private debt financing, 25 years of more than 10 trillion dollars of corporate buy-backs, 25 years of outsourcing of American manufacturing to foreign labor and foreign countries for lower cost and higher American corporate profit, 2009 QE bail-out money printing to banking and financial institutions, and 15-11% GDP deficit COVID spending in 2020 and 2021, respectively, accompanied by low interest rate mortgage-backed securities and out right money printing to sway the 2020 election with citizens, many who received checks (with the then president’s signature) greater than their real salaries.
The global peak of the system’s composite asset valuations has already occurred.
There may be additional 2026 peaks in composite equities and gold and silver from rotational money, but the SPX 13/33 year 1982 cycle will end in a same year, 2026, with a historically dv/dt2 severe collapse of all non sovereign debt asset class valuations.
Tuesday, February 3, 2026
As Ford Goes, So Goes The US Comsumer Economy,the World Economy, and the Composite Equity Market Economy ... A New Feb 2026 Fractal Terminal Growth Model
Sovereigns can print money and expand debt and create economic growth via war-related domestic production and service sector economic growth. But the consumers at the base of America's consumer driven economy are limited by their paychecks which limits their ability to maintain and expand debt obligation for the purchase of inflated goods and services.
Ford is an American Company and a representative equity that is a proxy for American manufacturing and expandable American consumer debt.
Under the Umbrella of 2009 11-12/29-30/30 Quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x SPX and Wilshire Maximum Fractal growth, ending Jan-March 2026 and under the window of the 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x maximum growth and decline, Ford's 7 April 2025 x/2-2.5x/2x weekly and daily equity growth appears to be complete in early Feb 2026.
Saturday, January 31, 2026
Final 1982 13/33 Year Fractal Global Equity Valuation Peak: 27 March 2026; 11-12/29-30/30 Quarters :: x/2.5x/2.5x From its March 2009 Nadir
While there will be counter valuation growth cycle after the 27 March 2026 ACWI Global Equity Valuation Peak, the 1982-2026 13/33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal global equity crash will occur over a relatively short time frame.
A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Self-Assembly Lammert Fractal Growth and Decay of Valuations of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities
Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x and 1982 13/32 of 33/32-33/20 years x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x) credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself.
On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above.
Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical deterministic self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series:
a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and
a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x
In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals.
The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in an interpolated ACWI/SPX 27 October 2023 55/139/135-136 day (SPX-ACWI respectively) :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 18/19 February 2025: and can be expected within the last months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series. (The 27 October 2023 dominant fractal series appears to have a 119 first fractal base, whereas the 55/139/136 day 3 phase growth series was a secondary interpolated series).
With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.
Current 1982 -2026 Self-Assembly Fractal Model:
1982 -2026 Terminal Fractal Growth
1982 to 2026: 52/126 of 130 Quarters :: x/2-2.5x
Terminal Fractal Growth:
11-12/29-30/30 Quarters :: x/2.5x/2.5x
Oct 2023 Terminal Fractal Growth:
120/243/244 days :: x/2x/2x
7 April 2025 Terminal Fractal Growth:
53/107/86 days :: x/2x/2x'; x'= 53 divided by 2.5
Sunday, January 11, 2026
The 1982 to Feb/Mar 2026 :: 13/33 year :: x/2.5x Composite Equity Blow-off Peak Valuation And Thereafter, Crash Collapse Devaluation
Updated 12 Jan 2026 …
The SPX, proxy for the global composite equity valuation, is observed to be completing a 3-phase 2009 12/29/30 Quarterly :: x/2.5/2.5x maximum Fractal Growth Series and a 1982 to 2026 52/126 of 128-130 :: x/2.5x Quarterly Blow-off Valuation and Crash series.
The 1982 to 1994 52 Quarter series is composed of a 11/26/17 Quarter :: x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x 3-phase fractal growth series and the 1994 to 2026 valuation growth is composed of two 3-phase fractal series: a 1994 10/25/25 Quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x series ending in 2009 and a 12/29/30 Quarterly series peak growth ending in Feb- Mar 2009. The 80-90% Crash from the 52/126th Quarter x/near 2.5x peak valuation will be precipitous – over 2 to 4 Quarters.
Is there a deterministic self ordering of composite equity valuation growth and decay in the Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System? It appears so.
Equity, commodity, crypto Valuations grow by debt expansion, primarily, by governmental debt, which unlike corporate and citizen debt, is facilitated by direct money/debt printing. Accelerated governmental debt to GDP % expansion in the last 20 years has been unprecedented relative to other in peace time conditions. Valuations of equities, commodities, and crypto have directed benefited from governmental debt expansion.
The 3-phase and 4-phase self-ordering self assembly fractal laws of growth and decay of asset valuations have been described before. A maxim can be added to these two laws: equity valuation growth in a political system strongly favoring equity investment by individual and corporate tax advantage and by malinvestment corporate buy back legislation, will grow to the near maximum fractal time frame.
The system is near that maximum time frame of valuation and peak growth.
After a 23 Oct 2023 55/139/135=6 :: x/2.5x/near 2.5x peak growth, a 5/12/12/7 day decay ending 7 April 20205 is observed.
Equity, commodity, and crypto valuations grow by debt expansion, primarily by governmental debt, which unlike corporate and citizen debt, is facilitated by direct money/debt printing. Accelerated governmental % deficit to GDP spending in the last 20 years has been unprecedented averaging 2-3 times higher than other peace time era periods. Maximum 2009 to 2026 12/29/30 quarterly :: x/2.5x/2.5x growth of equities, commodities, and crypto have been a direct of governmental debt expansion with equity valuations 122% of GDP.
The 3-phase and 4-phase self-ordering self assembly fractal laws of growth and decay of asset valuations have been well described. A maxim can be added to these two laws: equity valuation growth under the umbrella of high % deficit spending to GDP, a political and taxing system strongly favoring equity investment with individual and corporate tax advantage and with policies favoring malinvestment corporate buy-backs, will grow to the near maximum fractal time frame.
The remarkable 2025 and ongoing early 2026 blow-off valuation of gold and silver denominated in US dollars is likely a reflection of the current administration’s policies which are directly anti-institutional long-term US economic, geopolitical, domestic and international legal policies.
The system is near that maximum time frame of equity and precious metals peak valuation growth.
After a 23 Oct 2023 55/139/135 :: x/2.5x/near 2.5x peak growth, a 4-phase 5/13/12/7 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x decay fractal series ending 7 April 2025 is observed.
The ongoing 7 April 2025 3-phase fractal growth series to 5 Jan 2026 is shown below:
The self ordering of the 53 day first fractal according to Lammert self-assembly Fractal Laws of is shown below:
The self ordering of the 107-108 day second fractal according to Lammert self-assembly Fractal Laws is shown below.
The projected 20 November 3rd Fractal Peak Valuation Growth is shown below:
Monday, January 5, 2026
7 April 2025 53/108 day 21 Nov 2025 Incipient 3rd Fractal Growth Confirmed
7 April 2025 53/108 day 21 Nov 2025 Incipient 3rd Fractal Growth Confirmed
The global ACWI equity index made a new high valuation today confirming the end of a 108 day 2nd Fractal on 21 November 2025 and a coincidental 21 November 2025 incipient 3rd fractal growth of a self assembly 7 April 2025 53/108/65-86 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2x' terminal 3 phase daily fractal series ... concluding growth of a 1982 13/33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series and concluding growth of a 2009 11-12/29-30/30 quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x terminal maximum fractal growth series.
The current projection for the 21 November 2025 first of two subfractal growth series is 6/13/12 of 12-14/9-10 days. 3rd Fractal weakness will be evident if the final 9th or 10th day of the 4th fractal falls below the 108 day 2nd fractal trend line.
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