Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Awaiting the Current 43 day Second Fractal Characteristic Terminal Nonlinear Lower Low Valuation Gap: The Current 20 October 2026 SPX 1982 13/33-34 Year X/2.5X 19 July 2026 Peak Valuation and Initial Crash Decay Series : xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy Lammert Daily Fractal Model
Above is the current Lammert fractal model of the SPX 29 July 2026 19/43 of 44/38-44 day :: xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy 6 October 2026 all-time peak valuation and final peak high 13 Oct 7/15-18/15-10/10 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y initial crash decay series ending 14-22 December 2026. In this fractal model, 3 days are shared between the 1st and 2nd fractals. 20 December is the 43rd day of the 2nd fractal. The final secondary peak on 13 Oct on day 38 of the 2nd fractal is a 2xy ratio of the 19 day :: xy 1st fractal.
Below is the fractally self similar 1929 peak valuation and initial crash fractal decay series peaking on 3 September 1929 with an initial crash nadir on 13 November 1929.
Monday, October 19, 2026
The SPX 29 July 2026 to 10 December 2026 17/42 of 42/37 days :: xy/2.5xy/2-2.5xy is self similar to the Aug to 13 Nov 1929 fractal series: the terminal hourly fractal series of the 43 day 2nd fractal is self similar to the March 30 2026 to 10 December 2026 Daily Fractal Series.
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The US hegemonic asset-debt macroeconomy is characterized by the recognizable periodic growth and decay of the valuation its progenitor and continuity stocks and commodities.
This website argues that their are two extremely regular time-unit-based fractal patterns governing a asset-debt system deterministic self-ordering, self-assembly process: a three phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x and a four phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x-1.6x. Generally the individual fractal units are determined by their nadir points with the exception of the 3rd 2-2.5x fractal in the 4-phase series which can be a peak or terminal secondary peak valuation.
Within the easily recognizable fractal cycles, there are time limits to extreme credit expansion, extreme overvaluation, and extreme asset over production. When American companies made the primary goal of their businesses, profitability for their stockholders, considerations for the working middle class who support their enterprises and for investment for the well-being and continuity of the nation's long term self interest were minimized. With the focus on profits for shareholders, buybacks, an no national strategic goals, valuation growth of equities now occurs to the maximum valuation fractal time extent; increasing wealth disparity is apparent.
The US hegemonic asset debt macroeconomic system is following an 1807 4-phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x :: 36/90/90/54-57 year series ending in about 2077. Equity/commodity valuation 36 year 1st fractal and 90 year 2nd fractal nadirs occurred in 1841-42 and 1932, respectively, with a 90 year (2.5x) 3rd fractal peak in Nov 2021. Historically high average 7-9% peace-time deficit to GDP spending from 2020 to 2026 and recently AI/chip/data center large private investment has extended an interpolated 1932 SPX fractal series to the 6 Oct 2026 peak valuation.
The 1932 to 2077 90 year 2.5x 3rd fractal and the 54-57 year 1.5-1.6x 4th fractal are composed of two interpolated fractal series one complex fractal series from 1932 to 1982 and one from 1982 to 2077.
In past posts, the 1932 to 1982 fcomplex fracta series was described as a 10-11/20-22/20-22 year :: x/2x/2x fractal series ending in 1982.
The above graph shows a 1932 4/8/8 year ::x/2x/2x fractal series ending in 1949. The 1942 to 1949 8 year 3rd fractal is not in the 4/8 year x/2x 1st and 2nd fractal slope line. With America protected from destruction by two oceans and friendly neighbors, 20+% deficit to GDP spending and winning the war, the 1942 to 1949 8 year 3rd fractal is upsloping and becomes the 1st fractal of a 8/18/17 year :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.x fractal series with an 18 year 2-2.5x 2nd fractal nadir ending in 1966 and a 17 year 2-2.5x nadir ending in 1982. Note that the trend line from the beginning of 8 1st year fractal to the end of the 18 year 2nd fractal contain all intervening valuations.
In 1982 a 13/33 of 34 year :: x/2.5x (1982 to 2027) 1st and 2nd fractal series are self ordered. The SPX peak valuation of this series occurred during the 33 rd year 2.5x of the 33 year 2nd fractal on 6 October 2026. The 34 year 2027 SPX second fractal nadir valuation is expected to touch the March 2009 2nd fractal trendine for a low of 1300 to 1450, 81 to 84% lower than the peak valuation on 6 Oct 2026 at 7844.52.
The 19 Oct 2026 Current Peak Valuation to Initial Crash Decay Fractal Model:
29 July 2026 to 10 December 2026: 17/42 of 43/37 days :: xy/2.5xy/2-2.5 xy
The 17 day 1st fractal is composed of a 3/8/8 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal series. Tomorrow is day 43 of the 43 day 2nd fractal. A nonlinear gapped lower low from Monday's close will be evident at the opening as the extreme terminal 2x-2.5x portion of the 43 day 2nd fractal. The 43 day 2nd fractal is composed of two fractal series: a 20 Aug 2026 4-phase series: 19 day 3/7/7/5 day :: x2-2.5x/2.5x/1.6x and a 16 Sept 2026 4-phase 25 day 4/9/9/6 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5 x series ending with an expected nadir at 230 to 330 EST 20 October 2020. The all time SPX peak at 7844 .52 occurred on 6 October 2026 day 4 of the 9 day 3rd fractal. The secondary SPX peak valuation occurred on 12 Oct with a final secondary peak occurred on 13 Oct.
The 4 day 1st fractal of the 16 Sept 2026 4/9/9/6 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x series is a 4-phase curvilinear blow-off fractal series of 25 hours 4/10/8/6 hrs :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x ending at 930EST 22 September at a interday high valuation. The hourly fractal correlate series to the 4/9/9/6 daily fractal series is 24/51/60/36-37 hours :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.5x. The last 36 hour 4th fractal is interpolated in two fractal series : an 1130 AM 13 October 3/6/6 hour :: x/2x/2x fractal series that contains the final 13 Oct 2026 tertiary high valuation and a final 930 EST 15 Oct 2026 4/10/10/6-7 hour :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal series expected to nadir at 230-330 EST 20 October 2026 and completing the 43 day 2nd fractal.
The 16 September 24/51/60/36-37 hour :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.5x terminal portion of the 43 day 2nd second fractal is self-similar to the 30 March 2026 to 10 December 2026 25/60/59/37 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series.
The 37 day 3rd fractal of the 29 July 2026 17/43/37 day tertiary peak growth and initial crash decay series is composed of a 13 Oct 2026 (6)/15/15/9 day (y)/2.5y/2.5y/1.5y series ending 10 December 2026 self similar to the 3 Sept 1929 7/18/18/10 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y/1.5y series ending 13 November 1929 peak growth and initial crash decay series.
19 October 2023 Alternative Initial Crash Fractal Decay Model: a 12 Oct 7/15-18/15-18/9-10 day (y)/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y model ending in December 2026.

The SPX Secondary Peak Valuation 12 Oct 2026 1st (crash) Decay Fractal: a Replica of the 3 September 1929 Peak Valuation 1st (Crash) Decay Fractal: 7 Days
The SPX base 1st decay fractal starting from the SPX secondary high 12 October 2026 will be exactly the same as from the SPX 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation: 7 days.
3 Sept 1929 to 13 Nov 1929: 7/18/18/10 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y/1.5y
12 Oct 2026 to 10 December - 22 December 2026:
7/15-18/15-18/9-10 days : y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5-1.6y(y')
The 43 day second fractal low of a 29 July 2026 17/43/37-44 day :: x/2.5xy/2-2.5xy fractal series will occur on 20 Oct 2026 ending 1230 -330 EST.
Hourly fractals from the 5 hour 1230 EST 9 Oct to 930EST 12 Oct 1st 5 hour fractal:
5/10/13 hours :: y/2y/2.5y ending 930 EST 15 Oct 2026 then
4/10/8-10/6-7 hours :: y/2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5-1.6y ending 1230-330 EST 20 October.
Saturday, October 17, 2026
Lammert SPX Nonlinear lower low valuation Hourly Fractal Prediction for 19 October 2026
For the SPX composite a nonlinear lower low gap is expected between Friday 16 October and Monday 19 October 2026. 19 October concludes the 42 day second fractal of a 29 July 2026 to 9 December 2026 17/42/37 day :: xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy (of a SPX 1982 13/33-4 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fracal series) terminal 3-phase peak valuation growth and initial crash decay Lammert fractal series. Interpolated within this series is a (secondary SPX lower high peak valuation occurring on) 12 October 2026: 6/15/15/9 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y/1.5y, a 4-phase Lammert fractal decay series ending on 9 December 2026. This is fractally self similar to the 1929 3 September 1929 peak valuation and initial 13 November 1929 crash decay as described in the previous post.
The Lammert hourly fractal pattern predicted for 19 October 2026 is depicted above. Two hourly decay fractal series are shown above: a completed 5/10/13 hour :: y/2y/2.5y 3-phase fractal decay series with a 5 hour 1st fractal starting on 1230 EST 9 Oct 2026 and ending 930 EST 12 October 2026 and the 13 hour 3rd fractal ending 930 EST 15 Oct 2026.
The 3/8/5 of 8/4-5 hour :: y/2.5y/2.5y/1.5-1.6 4-phase fractal decay series starts on 930 EST 15 Oct 2026 and ends on 230-330 EST 19 October 2026 with an expected nonlinear lower low gap between 330 EST 16 October and 930 EST 19 October and between day 41 and day 42 of the 2nd Fractal of the 29 July 2026 to 9 Dec 2026 17/42/37 day :: xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy SPX Lammert 3-phase peak valuation and initial crash decay series.
From the 2005 main web page of the Economic Fractalist:
"… A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle (fractal)and characterizes this most recognizable cycle(fractal)...
G. Lammert
This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM."
Friday, October 16, 2026
1929 and 2026 Fractal Self-Similarities: a SPX 29 July 2026 2026 to 9 December 2026 17/42/37 day :: x/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy 3-Phase Fractal Series: a SPX 6 October 2026 all-time peak valuation and a 9 December 2026 Initial Crash Nadir
6 October 2026 concluded the SPX's peak valuation growth in a 1982 to 2026 13/33-34 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series, an interpolated series within a US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal series.
The SPX 1929 peak valuation on 3 Sept 1929 was near the end of a 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series which ended at year 90 (2.5x)in 1932.
The above depicts the Aug to Nov 1929 12/29/27 day :: xy/2-2.5 xy/2-2.5xy 3-phase fractal series that contains the 1807 :: 36/87 x/2-2.5x 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation and initial 13 Nov 1929 crash nadir valuation decay.
From the 3 Sept 1929 peak, a 7/18/18/10 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y/1.5y 4-phase fractal decay series ends at the initial crash nadir on 13 November 1929.
The above depicts the current fractal model of a 1929 self similar SPX 29 July 2026: 17/42/37 day :: xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy with a 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x peak valuation on 6 Oct 2026, a secondary peak on 12 Oct 2026 and an initial crash nadir on 9 December 2026.
The 29 July to 20 Aug 2026 17 day 1st fractal is composed of a 3/8/8 day 3 phase fractal series. The 20 Aug 42 day 2nd fractal ending Monday 19 Oct 2026 is composed of two 4-phase fractal subseries: a 20 August 3/7/7/5 day series ending 16 Sept 2026 and a 16 Sept 4/9/8/6 day series ending Monday 19 Oct 2026.
From the SPX secondary peak on 12 Oct, day 8 of the 3rd 8 day fractal of a 1 Oct 4/9/8 day 3-phase growth fractal series, a 6 day 4th fractal ends on the 16 Oct 2026 42 day 2nd fractal nadir. A 4-phase y/2.5y/2.5y/1.5y : 6/15/15/9 day fractal series ends on the 9 December 2026 nadir.
The above daily 29 July 2026 to 9 December 2026 fractal series completes a 7 April 2025 17/36/37 week :: xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy fractal series. The 37 week 3rd fractal is composed of a 30 March 2026 6/13/12/9 week :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5x 4 phase fractal series corresponding to a 30 March 2026 25/60/57/37 day :; x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series. The 3-phase xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy 29 July 2026 to 9 Dec 2026 daily peak valuation and initial crash to nadir value fractal series is fractally self-similar to the 7 April 2025 to 9 Dec 2026 weekly 3-phase xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy peak valuation and initial crash to nadir valuation fractal series.
Sunday, October 4, 2026
This is it: The SPX 29 July 2026 to 24 Nov 2026: 17/35/34 days :: xy/2xy/2xy Peak Growth and Crash Decay Series
The Case for Quantitative Lammert Fractal Macroeconomics
(How much higher would the SPX have peaked without the concurrent energy prices and inflation secondary to the Ukraine war, Iran war, and ever mutable trade policies?)
The Asset Debt Macroeconomic System integrates good and excessive bad (unrepayable) private credit growth, asset overproduction, asset overvaluation, asset over-ownership and sets the time limits for peak asset valuation and subsequent valuation decay. Daily trade-able composite equity and commodity asset valuations are deterministically self-organized, self-assembled by the system into two easily-identifiable empirical repetitive time-based growth and decay fractal patterns denominated in fractal units of minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years:
a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x and
a 4 phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x
The 2-2.5x second fractals in the. above serie are characterized terminal nonlinearity in their final 2x-2.5x time frame
From 1807, the growing US hegemony is following a 4-phase 36/90/90/54-57 year fractal series :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x ending in 2074-77.
The 90 year second fractal ending in 1932 with a SPX having a peak valuation and initial crash nadir in 1929 on 3 Sept and 13 Nov 1929 respectively. The peak and nadir were contained in a 3 phase x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x (or better xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy denoting both peak growth and initial nonlinear decay) fractal series of 12/29/27 days.
The 1932 90 year 3rd fractal and subsequent 54-57 year 4th fractal are composed of two fractal series: a 1932 10-11/20-21/20-21 year 3-phase fractal series ending in 1982 and a 1982 13/33-34/30-33/20 year 4 phase fractal series ending in 2074-2077.
The system is at the end of peak valuation of the 33 year second fractal of the 1982 13/33-34 year :: x/2.5x fractal series with expected 33 year terminal second nonlinear valuation devolution.
The 2026 peak and initial crash valuation is self-organized in a 29 July 2026 to 24 November 2026 3 phase fractal series of 17/35/34 days :: x/2x/2x. ('y' has been used denote a devaluation, but 'xy' is again perhaps more appropriate for both 1929 and 2026 in that the 3-phase fractal series contains both peak valuation growth and initial nonlinear crash decay)
From the Covid March 2020 low, the SPX, boosted by governmental checks directly to private citizens followed a 8/18/18 month :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.x fractal growth patterns with an interpolated 8/19/19 of 20 month pattern (as of 2 Oct 2026) as shown above.
Above:the SPX weekly (and daily) fractal growth patterns of the 27 Oct 2023 to 7 April 2025 19 month second fractal and the 7 April 2025 to currently 2 Oct 2026 3rd 19 month fractal (to the interpolated 8 month first fractal) are shown above.
The SPX terminal 15/30/30 day :: xy/2xy/2xy 3 phase fractal series (fractally similar to 1929) resulting in the 7 April 2025 nadir is shown above.
A 29 July to 24 Nov 2026 4/8/8 week :: 17/35/35 day :: x/2xy/2xy 3- phase (1929 -like) fractal growth and decay series contains the 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x peak valuation and ends in the initial 24 Nov 2026 crash nadir. Because this represents a 33 year second fractal nonlinearity (and the amount of margin, leverage, overvaluation, et.al.) the devaluation will be substantial.
6 October 2026 postscript:
Do global composite equity market valuation patterns predict crashes and incipient recessions better than traditional economic indicators?
Was 6 October 2026 the final SPX peak valuation for the Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd Fractal Cycle?
From the 30 March 2026 low: 25/60/49 of 49-50 days :: x/2.5x/2x-2x' 3-phase growth fractal self-assembles to the 6 Oct 2026 all-time peak valuation. The 49 day 3rd fractal of this 3-phase fractal growth series starts on 29 July 2026.
An interpolated 29 July 2026 17/33 of 35/34 day :: xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy terminal peak valuation growth and initial crash decay 3-phase fractal series with a peak valuation on day 33 (6 Oct 2026 ) of the 35 day 2nd fractal and an initial crash nadir on 24 Nov 2026, day 34 of the 3rd fractal decay is fractally self-similar to the 1929 12/29/27 day :: xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy 3-phase peak valuation and decay fractal series with a peak on day 4, 3 Sept of the 29 day 2nd fractal and a crash nadir on 13 Nov 1929, day 27 of the 3rd fractal.
Like the terminal 29 days 3rd fractal in 1929 ending on 13 Nov 1929 (and near the end of a 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x ending in 1932), there should be a very obvious nonlinear lower low gap in the terminal portion of the 34 day 3rd fractal ending on 24 November 2026.
A 30 March 2026 25/60/49/36 day :: x/2.5x'/2-2.5x'/1.5x' 4-phase fractal series would end on 24 Nov 2026 and fit the description of the 4-phase fractal series described over 20 years ago in the 2005 main web page of 'The Economic Fractalist':
"The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves.
G. Lammert
This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM ."
This terminal peak valuation growth and initial crash decay model 4-phase fractal model appears to be correct.
8 October 2026 Update: Ther French CAC:
The globally underperforming French CAC has lost over 10% from its 7 August 2026 all-high and today (8 Oct) touched on (and broke thru) its 16 March 2020 to 7 April 2025 trendline.
The CAC will break that 6 and 1/2 year trendline during the next 2 to 3 days: 9, 12 to 13 Oct 2026 completing a 38-39 day 6/14/12/7 of 9 -10 day y/2-2.5y/2y/1.5-1.6y 4-phase fractal series, the 2nd fractal of a 29 July 2026 17/38-39/34-35 day series : y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y 3-phase crash decay series with a global equity initial crash low on about 30 November 2026(vice 24 Nov) akin to the initial 13 Nov 1929 crash nadir. (The SPX’s 2nd decay fractal (with its 17 July 17 day 1st fractal) will also end Monday or Tuesday 12-13 Oct.)
13 Oct 2026 Update:
The French CAC appears to be following a 20 Aug 2026 40 day second fractal of 6/14/13/9 of 10 days : y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.6y ending 14 Oct 2026.
Tomorrow, 14 Oct 2026 is the 7th day of a 6 Oct to 14 Oct 2026 SPX peak valuation to an initial 7 day 1st Fractal nadir.
The 1929 SPX/DJIA peak valuation to initial crash nadir occurred from 3 Sept to 13 Nov 1929 and followed a 7/18/18/10 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y/1.5y 4-phase peak valuation to initial crash nadir fractal decay series. (In 1929, stocks traded 6 days a week , ie, on Saturdays)
The 2026 SPX current model is a 6 Oct peak valuation to initial crash decay nadir 7/15-18/14-18/10 day 4 -phase fractal decay series. This is a peak valuation to initial crash decay fractal replica of the 3 Sept to 13 Nov 1929 4-phase fractal crash decay series. The 2026 crash nadir is predicted between 3 December and 15 December 2026.
14 Oct 2026 Update: New 20 Aug to 15-16 Oct 2026 40-41day 2nd Fractal Model with 3 fractal subseries composing the 40-41 day 2nd Fractal
This model has a 40-41 day 2nd Fractal in yellow composed of 3 subfractals of 19/12 and 11-12 days sequentially. A 3rd Fractal of 34-42 days would take the SPX to its initial crash low. completing a 3-phase 17/40-41/34-42 day :: xy/2-2.5xy/2-2.5xy peak valuation growth to initial valuation crash nadir Lammert fractal series.
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