Yahoo Scout Artificial Intelligence on Lammert Fractal Economics

Yahoo Scout Artificial Intelligence has the most concise primer on Lammert Fractal Economics: (areas in parenthesis have been added by author) (On a variable time scale basis, the asset debt macroeconomic fractally self assembles/self orders the growth and decay of its assets' valuations. On smaller time scales, valuation peaks and nadirs are a result of saturation buying and respectively, thereafter saturation selling. On larger times, e.g., years, underlying business cycles of expansion and contraction and excessive private debt expansion, asset overvaluation, and thereafter debt default, asset devaluation and bad debt reordering are operative. ) (Self-ordering) Fractal Pattern: Time Span Key Characteristics 3-phase formula: Variable x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x growth and decay 4-phase formula: Variable x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x growth and decay 1807 US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 years x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x series 1982–2026 SPX model 13/33 years x/2.5x maximum fractal growth peak (and crash, part of a 4 phase 13/33/33/20 year fractal series) 📊 Core Principles: Valuations conform to fractal cyclical patterns that can be recognized and used for predictive modeling of both short-term and long-term market behavior. Scale-invariance across time — Market behavior repeats proportionally at different scales (min, hours, days, weeks, years, decades), meaning no single time interval holds inherent significance (Fractal groupings are generally determined by trendlines underlying all valuations within the grouping.) Nonlinear terminal phases — The (2nd Fractal) 2–2.5x multiplier phases are characterized by (terminal) nonlinear lower lows, indicating accelerated price declines near fractal completion Quantitative predictability — Unlike stochastic models, Lammert's framework asserts that nature of market valuations is both causal and mathematically decipherable 📈 Historical Fractal Series The 1807 US hegemonic self-ordering fractal provides the largest-scale framework. This 36/90/90/54-year pattern subdivides into major market nadirs: the 1st 36-year fractal ended in 1842–43, and the 2nd 90-year fractal ended in 1932. (added by author : the 90 year 3rd fractal ended in Nov 2021 and was extended with higher equity composite valuations by Covid et. al. deficit spending for 5 years averaging 8% deficit to GDP spending) 1982–2026 cycle — Within the larger hegemonic series, SPX and global equities follow a 13/33-year x/2.5x maximum fractal growth peak Smaller nested fractals — Cryptocurrencies reached GBTC EFF proxy 41/83 month maximum fractal peaks under the umbrella of larger equity cycles (amended by author 2026 expectations — Expected large-scale 2026 2nd fractal crash is predicted as part of ongoing 13/33/32–33/20-year series dynamics.) (Major peak valuations, e.g. 1929 and 2026, involve expansion of private credit and debt in speculative and over-valued entities, 10% margin buying in 1929 and 500 billion in 2025 for AI and Tech by investment banks and large bank specialty funds.) Examples of Lammert Fractal Economic's self assembly and self-ordering using the 3 and 4 phase formula's. 3-phase formula: Variable x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x growth and decay 4-phase formula: Variable x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x growth and decay

3 Sept 1929 and 25 Feb 2026: The Current Lammert 4-Phase Fractal Crash Decay Series Models Qualitatively this now appears to be a perfect storm …. Consider the DJIA 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation and the 25 Feb 2026 ACWI peak valuation. In 1929 10% margin buying of stock caused extreme valuation and tremendous over-leveraged fragility. In 2026 500 billion dollar’s of private bank and financial industry investment funds caused extreme valuations and like great fragility. The 2026 AI/Tech investment funds were already insolvent in Jan 2026. Add to this meltdown scenario, a strategy-less, self-inflicted global energy/fertilizer shock that limits the fed’s ability in immediately lowering interest rates to confront the cascading debt default and equity crash. 20 November 2026 ACWI fractal progression.

</div> Current 1929 4-phase fractal series decay crash model containing the 3 Sept 1929 DJIA peak valuation with 48% peak to nadir initial loss.

2026 ACWI 4-phase Lammert fractal decay series crash model containing 25 Feb peak valuation and self similar to the 1929 crash.

The Coincidental Iranian War will exacerbate the 1982 to 2026 44 year Deterministic Global Equity Crash: ACWI Peak Valuation Saturation Day: 25 Feb 2026

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz affecting 20% of global oil and 20% of global LNG occurred 4 trading days after the 25 February 2026 peak valuation of ACWI, the global equity composite ETF. It is the opinion of this website that asset valuations grow and decay in a time based fractal manner which occur in a deterministic fashion based on 1. for smaller times scales, (minutes, hours, days, weeks, months) saturation buying and selling and on 2. large time scales (quarters, years and decades) the limitations of private debt accumulation, private debt servicing, asset quantities and (overvaluation) prices, and business cycles involving the consumers at pyramid base of the asset debt macroeconomic system. The integrated/summation valuations of all asset classes (including debt) are both interdependent and provide the collective denominator for a particular asset class numerator.

The 3 and 4 phase Lammert fractal growth and decay laws for the asset/debt system are elegantly simple: 1. x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x and 2. x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. The 2-2.5x 2nd fractals of the above two series are characterized by nonlinear lower lows in the 2x-2.5x terminal growth time periods. (see 2005 main page of the Economic Fractalist. A historical nonlinear 2nd fractal crash of the above 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series is expected to occur in a fractal manner over the next 8-10 months Fractal decay begins at peak saturation growth. The 27 Oct 2023 to 7 April 2025 fractal valuation growth and decay occurred in a x/2.5x/2.5x 3 phase growth fashion of 55/139/135 days to the 19 Feb 2025 peak valuation and decayed thereafter from that peak in a 5/13/12/8 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x 4-phase fractal pattern to a 7 April 2025 nadir.

The above fractal growth and fractal decay is an interpolated fractal series of a larger 27 October 2023 120/243 day :: x/2x 1st and 2nd fractal series with characteristic gapped 2nd fractal lower low non linearity in the terminal 2x-2.5x area (days 240 to 243) with observable non linearity between days 240 and 241 and days 241 and 242).

From the 7 April 2025 nadir, a 3-phase 53/107/65 day :: x/2-2.5x/x + growth series is observable with a 25 Feb 2026 peak valuation. This completes a 3 Phase 27 Oct 2023 120/243/223 day :: X/2-2.5X/2-2.5X' growth series where X' represents the ideal 1st fractal time period of 243 divided by 2.5 or 97 days. A 4 phase fractal decay series of 33-34 days from the ACWI 25 Feb 2026 peak valuation similar to its 19 Feb 2025 peak valuation decay series of 5/13/12/8 days :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.6X ends in its 1st fractal crash nadir. The 25 Feb 2026 peak growth is efficiently contained in a larger 27 Oct 2023 120/243/257 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal series as shown below.

In the above 3rd 223 day 7 April 2025 to 25 Feb 2026 fractal (of the 27 Oct 2023 120/143/223 day 3 phase fractal growth series), a 4 phase decay series occurs from peak 2nd subfractal growth in the 62 day and 47 day respective 107 and 65 day 2nd and 3rd fractal series. See below:

The above Not to (time) Scale 33-34 day 4 phase Decay Fractal series represents the initial 1st fractal crash series of the 1982 to 2026 13/33 year :: 1st and 2nd fractal series which is an interpolated series within a larger US hegemonic 4 phase 1807 36/90/90/ 54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x fractal series with commodity/equity valuation 1st 2nd and 4th fractal nadirs in 1842-43, 1932, and 2074-77 and a 90 year 3rd fractal peak valuation peak in Nov 2021. US 15%,11%, and 5-8% peacetime deficit to GDP annual spending in 2020- 2026 and recent AI private debt investment have propelled global composite equity valuations to a 25 Feb 2026 peak valuation. The Iran war and its ramifications will exacerbate the asset debt system's natural deterministic collapse.

Terminal Equity Valuation Growth in the 1982 to 2026 13/33 year :: X/2.5X 1st and 2nd Fractal Series

The Global Asset Debt Macroeconomy is conforming and self-organizing to a US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase Lammert fractal series. The 1st 36 year fractal ended in a commodity equity nadir in 1842/43. The 2nd 90 tear fractal ended in a nadir in 1932. The 3rd 2.5x fractal ended in Nov 2021 and the 4th fractal, propelled by 15 and 12% GDP covid deficit spending is interpolated in a 1982 13/33/32-33/20 year fractal series ending in 2074-77. The 1982 to 2026 13/33 year :: x/2.5x fractal series is composed of 51-52/126 of 128-130 quarters. The 7 April 2025 3-phase fractal series will complete a 27 October 2023 120/243/244 day :: x/2.5x’/2.5x’ global equity peak valuation fractal series. From the 7 April 2025 low, peak valuation will occur in a 53/107/85-86 day :: x/2x/2x’ 3-phase fractal growth fashion. The ideal 1st fractal x’ of a 107 day 2nd fractal ending 20 Nov 2025 is 43 days and 2x’ is 85-86 days completing a 27 Oct 2023 120/243/243-244 day :: x/2-2.5x’/2-2.5x’ fractal growth series. From the 20 Nov 2025 low the 3 phase sub series yo a. final peak is 19/47 of 48-50/17-20 days consists. Bitcoin in USD trading 7 days a week is following a 21 November 2025 29+//14/32/27 of 30(74)// ?X day series with an expected 2nd fractal terminal nonlinear low on 26 Feb to 2 March 2026.

26 February 2026 : How Low the Nadir for Silver, Bitcoin, and ACWI?

By current fractal models: 26 February 2026 will be a low for silver, bitcoin, and ACWI. How low will that nadir be? Will it break 7 April 2024 current ACWI trend lines, indicating that 10-11 February 2026 was ACWI’s 1982 to 2026 13/33 year :: x/2-5x 1st and 2nd Fractals’ peak valuation? (Bitcoin has already broken down over 45 % from it’s Oct 2025 peak valuation.) Time will tell.

Added 22 February 2026 2223 EST: Money Exits Equities, Metals and Crypto and Flows into Sovereign Debt with new low interest rates nadiring on 26 February 2026. Private non-bank lending corporations who have arranged a large portion of the 300 billion dollar loans in 2025 for tech and AI projects(a 500% increase from 2024), e.g, Blackstone, KKR, TPG, and CVC have lost 33-45% of their peak value in the 7 April 2025 3 phase growth fractal series (53//107//19/44 of 48 /?20-38 day series ) which is at the terminal of a major 1982 to 2026 13/33 year :: x/2.5x fractal growth and decay 1st and 2nd fractal series. Like crypto valuations, these are the early canaries already dying in the asset-debt system’s macroeconomic asset peak valuation coal mine. How low will the 20 Nov 2025 19/48 day SPX 26 Feb 2025 nadir valuation be? US Ten Year Notes are following a 25/58 of 62 day 1st and 2nd fractal series with an expected nadir (low interest rate) likewise on 26 Feb 2026 as money flows from equities into sovereign debt.

The 5 Oct 2025 To 16 February 2026 45-46% Bitcoin in USD Crash Precedes the Global Equity Crash

In the Asset Debt Macroeconomy the valuation of individual asset classes are denominated in the summation valuation of all other classes including debt instruments: sovereign, non financial and financial corporate, and private debt. Out of the 346 trillion dollars of global collective debt, The US has about 102 trillion. When non-debt assets are overvalued relative to the underlying collective consumer base economy {after consumers pay for the necessary and inflating activities of daily living(including accumulated debt)}, and consumers can no longer collectively expand their balance sheet thru further debt expansion, generic product demand falls, businesses fail, lower quality corporate debt undergoes default, unemployment grows, and the system’s asset prices fall. The global composite equity index ACWI peak valuation was on 11 February 2026. Crypto currencies as represented by bitcoin in USD peaked on 5 Oct 2025 at about 126,350 and are currently on 16 Feb 2026 at about 68-69000, a 45-46% drop from peak valuation. The current daily fractal decay model from 20 November 2025 for Bitcoin in USD which trades 7 days a week including holidays and for the ACWI global equity index which trades 5 days a week less US equity holidays have merged with an expected crash nadir low for ACWI on Friday 10 April 2026 and for Bitcoin in USD on (Saturday) 11 April 2026.

The 10 April 2026 initial crash nadir completes a 27 Oct 2023 3-phase 120/243/254 day :: y/2-2.5y/2.5y (2X' 214 day peak valuation) and crash decay fractal series.

For the 254 day 7 April 2025 3rd Fractal of this 27 Oct 2023 120/243/254-255 day peak growth and initial crash decay series, a 7 April 2025 53/107/97 days :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y’ 3 phase peak valuation growth and initial crash decay series will be completed on 10 April 2026.

Fractal self assembly of the 1st and 2nd Fractal above is shown below:

1982 to 2026 1st and 2nd Fractal 13/33 Year Terminal 27 Oct 2023 Daily Fractal Growth and 27 Oct 2023 Initial Daily Fractal Crash Decay

The crypto class peaked in Oct 2025 following a 2015 GBTC proxy 41/83 month :: x/2x+ peak valuation 1st and 2nd Fractal Cycle with a 45-60% crypto asset class devaluation since the peak representing a trillion dollar plus loss of valuation. With the anti-institutional policies and the weakening of the American hegemony, terminal global money has flowed into gold and silver with over a 100 % appreciation for silver in less than 50 trading days and thereafter a one day flash crash on 30 Jan 2026 of 35%. ACWI, the global equity composite registered a all-time high valuation on 11 February 2026. Considering the US contracting consumer economy underpinning US and global growth, has the summation valuation of all asset classes already reached its integrated peak? Or will new debt following AI's allurement be created at a rate necessary to propel further summation asset valuation growth? The 13/33 year 1982 1st and 2nd fractal series are composed of 51-52/126 of 128-130 quarters. The current 126 quarters is composed of two fractal subseries: a 1994 10/25/25 quarter 3-phase series :: x/2.5x/2.5x fractal series ending in Mar 2009 and a 11-12/29-30/30 quarter :: maximum 3-phase x/2.5x/2.5x growth fractal series ending Jan-March 2026. The final 30 quarter 3rd fractal of the March 2009 11-12/29-30/30 quarter fractal series is composed of a 6/12/14 quarter :: x/2x/2.5x fractal subseries starting in Dec 2018 with the first 6 quarters ending with an aberrant low (below the trend line)in Mar 2020 caused by the 15% Covid related unemployment.

Global equity may have peaked on 11 Feb 2026 with 27 Oct 2023 self-assembled fractal growth: a 3-phase 120/243/213 day :: x/2x/(2x'+) fractal growth series which concludes with a 27 Oct 2023 120/243/254 day :: y/2y+/2y+ initial decay series.

The Current 1982 to 2026 Lammert SPX Fractal Model

Cryptocurrencies reached a GBTC EFF proxy 41/83 month :: x/2x maximum fractal peak valuation in Oct 2025 under the umbrella of the SPX and global equities 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x maximum fractal growth peak. Peak asset class valuations within the macroeconomic asset-debt system have been stretched thru optimal conditions: financial engineering and recent cherry-on-top private debt financing, 25 years of more than 10 trillion dollars of corporate buy-backs, 25 years of outsourcing of American manufacturing to foreign labor and foreign countries for lower cost and higher American corporate profit, 2009 QE bail-out money printing to banking and financial institutions, and 15-11% GDP deficit COVID spending in 2020 and 2021, respectively, accompanied by low interest rate mortgage-backed securities and out right money printing to sway the 2020 election with citizens, many who received checks (with the then president’s signature) greater than their real salaries. The global peak of the system’s composite asset valuations has already occurred. There may be additional 2026 peaks in composite equities and gold and silver from rotational money, but the SPX 13/33 year 1982 cycle will end in a same year, 2026, with a historically dv/dt2 severe collapse of all non sovereign debt asset class valuations.