Wednesday, May 22, 2024

1637, 1720, 1929, 2000, 2007 and now 2024 What name will be given to the May 2024 US Peak Equity and Peak Gold in USD global asset valuation collapse?

 In the asset debt macroeconomic system what is the worst bubble element - an asset overproduction and overvaluation bubble or an unsustainable debt overproduction bubble at the consumer base of the asset-debt economic pyramid? While the two elements are closely linked, each of two might be individually assessed for comparison at peak system valuation of commodities and equities at prior asset peak valuations :1637, 1720, 1929, 2000, 2007, and now in 2024. Qualitatively of these climax years 2024 is arguably the worst of the extremes of both global overproduction and overvaluation of assets and overproduction of consumer unsustainable debt. China, the second leading economy, has a collapsing consumer owned housing market with awful inactive parameters of a declining population, falling prices and 50-100% unoccupied residentials. With the early 2020-2022 historically low US mortgage interest rates and MBS's inflating US residential valuations by 14 trillion dollars, and later in 2023 and 2024 with mortgage interest rates at 20 year highs, the global leading economy has its consumer housing prices both at historical high valuations and representing 5-6 times annual median wages for new purchases. US consumer credit card, college, and mortgage debt are at likewise historically high percentages of median wages. Vehicle repossession rates, the litmus test of the fragility of the consumer based economy, are rapidly climbing as consumers cannot pay interest and principal on car loans. And while sovereigns can print money to monetize their national debt, individual citizen consumers cannot. In May (not April) 2024, gold in USD completed a year 2000 51/128/102 month :: x/2.5x/2x peak valuation growth fractal with gold peaking at 2454.20 dollars on 20 May 2024. Gold’s monthly long term peak valuation in US dollars and the concurrent Wilshire valuation May 2024 peak suggests that May 2024 is a global valuation peak for the global asset-debt macroeconomic system. From the May 2024 gold in USD and Wilshire peak valuations, valuations of global equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies will significantly fall from the twin bubbles of global overproduction of assets and unsustainable consumer debt loads. Sovereign debt instruments will appreciate as sovereign interest rates fall in a global recession. Tulip, South Sea, Roaring Twenties, Internet, Housing, and ??? What name will be given to the US Peak Equity and Gold in USD May 2024 global asset valuation collapse?

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