PEAK GLOBAL EQUITY VALUATION GROWTH FROM THE MARCH 2020 LOW : 8-9/24/24 MONTHS :: X/2.5X/2.5X … NOW THE INCIPIENT AUGUST 2024 CRASH

There is an undeniable observable elegance to the simple self assembly growth and decay of asset valuations within the global asset-debt macroeconomic system. The two simple self ordering time-based fractal laws governing all growth and decay of the system’s asset valuations are: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x and x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x. On the longest observable time scale in years, the US hegemony is following an 1807: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x yearly fractal series of 36/90/90/54 years ending in 2074 with lows in 1843-43 and 1932 and a (global) peak asset valuation in November 2021. This global peak is better understood if one considers inclusion of Chinese property valuation. An interpolated US fractal series started in 1982 (of 13/32 years ending in 2025) commenced with the peak double-digit Volcker fed funds rates which have been lowered in a cascadingly ratcheted manner with near zero rates after the 2009 global property bubble collapse and recently fed fund increases since 2021 to combat inflation caused in the main, by excessive global Covid QE programs. The length of US 3 month Treasury minus 10 year inversion QT program now exceeds the length (and depth) of the inversion leading to 1929. World Equity growth since the March 2020 covid lows have followed an elegant 8-9/24/24 month :: x/2.5x/2.5x growth fractal ending July-August 2024. The monthly sub fractals (following the self-ordering laws defined above) composing the 8-9/24/24 month fractal are shown in the graph below.

The last 10-11 months of the 24 month third fractal of 5/10/10-11 months are shown below in a series of weekly fractals :: 13/30-33 weeks. A 33 week second fractal can be observed to be a 5/10/13/8 week fractal ending 30 August 2024 with week 26 (2x) containing July 16 2024.

The final growth from 28 June 2024 to the peak of 16 July follows a 3/7/4 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.5x growth fractal. A reflexic 4 phase decay/decay/growth/crash decay fractal series of 6/13/12/9 days completes week 8 of the 33 week 5/10/13/8 week fractal series ending 30 August 2024. The July -August 2024 decay will be the beginning of a valuation decay process lasting 12 -15 months with substantial counter valuation growth fractals.

26 August 2024 completes a 3 July 2024 7/18/16 day :: y/2.5y/2-2.5y Three Phase Fractal Crash Decay Sequence

Kindly review the 19 August 2024 post. With the exception of third fractal growth in a 4-phase series, Fractal groupings are generally defined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit of the grouping with all values within the intervening time unit being above the nadir points. The crash devaluation of the ACWI world index reached a nominal peak on 16 July 2016. This was day 125 of an October 2023 59/125 day first and second fractal series and week 26 of an analogous 13/26 week first and second series. for the second fractal, after a 17 Jan 2024 20/47/49 day series, the peak valuation occurred in a 28 June 3-/7/4 day :: x/2.5x/1.5x growth fashion.

Integratively and with incipient decay beginning near end growth the 7 day second fractal of the 3-/7/4 day final growth series became the base first fractal of a 3 July 7/18/16 day crash decay sequence ending 26 August. Note that the 7/18/16 day decay series meets the criteria of fractal groupings.

THE WEEKLY AND DAILY FRACTAL CASE FOR AN UNEXPECTED FURTHER CRASH DEVALUATION WITH A SECOND FRACTAL NADIR ON 23 AUGUST 2024

In the x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6 four phase time based deterministic self ordering fractal model of Lammert asset-debt saturation macroeconomics, the 139 day 2nd fractal low on 5 August 2024 would nicely fit the standard model described in the 2005 web page with later modification and identification/description the US 1807 36/90/90/54 year and further identification of the 3 phase fractal growth and decay x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x. All of macroeconomic’s systems self assembly valuation growth and decay deterministic time ordering can be described in the context of the 4 phase and the 3 phase self assembly fractal series. 5 August 2024 is day 139 of a first and second daily fractal series of 59/139 days :: x/2x-2.5x and from the actual daily nadir valuation on 27 October 2023 to 5 Aug 2024 : 55/139 days. :: x/2.5x.

An alternative model can be observed in the weekly fractal series starting 23 October 2023 with a 13/32 of 32 week series ending this week. Week 26 is the peak of a 13/26 of 32 week series containing 16 July 2024, the unadjusted inflation peak valuation for the World index ACWI. The 26 week peak valuation is composed of a 5/10/13 week :: x/2x/2.5x growth series staring on 17 January 2024. The completion of this 4-phase fractal series would be 5/10/13/7 weeks.

The daily fractal series correlate to the 5/10/13/7 week 4 phase fractal series and the subfractal series that make up the first 59 day first fractal and the possible 153 day second fractal are shown below.

If 5 August 2024 was the nadir for the second fractal and the beginning of third fractal valuation growth and if there is no further second fractal crash devaluation in the equity, commodity and crypto markets ending about 23 August 2024, it will be difficult for the federal reserve to lower the fed funds rate in September 2024. An equity, commodity. and crypto crash over the next three trading would be accompanied by markedly lower US debt instrument interest rates as money exiting these assets will flow into the debt market.

NEW TARGET DATE FOR THE OCTOBER 2023 SECOND FRACTAL LOW: 22-25 AUGUST 2024; CONCLUDING THE OCTOBER 2023 13/32-33 WEEK LAMMERT 32-33 WEEK SECOND FRACTAL NONLINEAR COLLAPSE

The final October 2023 final second fractal collapse of 32-33 weeks concluding a 13/32-33 week first and second fractal series appears to be a 1 July 2024 6/13/12-13/9-10 day :: x/2-2.5xy/2.5xy/1.5xy collapse ending 22 – 25 August 2024. The 2024 4 phase decay fractal is unlike the 3 phase y/2.5y/2.5y 1929 decay fractal. Will the valuation for the global index ACWI be below the October 2023 low? Likely so. Will the nonlinear global collapse of equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies over the next 8-10 trading days be sufficient for central bank emergency intervention? Likely so.

GLOBAL EQUITY BLACK MONDAY 12 AUGUST 2024

Lammert Saturation Asset-Debt Macroeconomics Global Equity Black Monday 12 August 2024. 12 August 2024 will complete an incipient 1 July 2024 6/13/13 day three-phase fractal decay series containing the 16 July 2024 peak valuation day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y, analogous to 1929’s incipient 11/26/27 :: y/2.5y/2.5y three-phase decay fractal series also containing the peak valuation day. The 1982 to 2025 13/32 year :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series is a fractal replay of 1807 to 1932 36/90 year :: x/2.5x fractal series and an interpolated large scale fractal series within the larger 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x series ending in 2074. Is the asset debt macroeconomic system self ordering and deterministic? At the minimum this construct is an interesting, testable, and observable hypothesis.

This is it ..The World INDEX ACWI 1 July to 12 August 2024: 7(-)/13/13 Day :: y/2y/2y 1929-Like Crash

The ACWI world composite, unadjusted for inflation, peaked in July 2024. The index is in the lineage of the US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54 year great x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Four Phase Fractal Series ending in 2074 with progenitor nadir valuations in 1842-43, 1932 and with an inflation adjusted 90 year third fractal peak in 2021. From 1932 US equities followed a 10-11/21-22/21-22 year fractal series :: x/2x/2x ending in 1982 ending with high Volcker QT fed fund rates that have since cascaded lower and lower and post the 2009 global housing bubble collapsed to near zero. Low inflation during this low interest rate period was facilitated by imported low cost manufactured goods from China, use of natural gas as an energy source, and fracking which elevated US oil production and export to levels not seen in decades. During covid, historically large % GDP deficit spending, 2.5-3% mortgage rates, supply line disruptions, and corrupt corporate price fixing produced a 10% inflation rate. In response the US central bank invoked Volcker-like QT with an inversion of short term -long term bond yields that has lasted more than 600 days, longer than the inversion leading up to the 1929 crash. The observed fractal series since 1982 is 13/31 of 32 years with an expected large scale 2024-2025 second fractal crash. (See main page of the Economic Fractalist). This is part of a 13/32/32-33/20 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5 x interpolated fractal series ending in 2074. The third 32-33 year fractal starting in 2025 will see the greatest monetization of national debt and social contract liabilities in world history. The yearly fractal series groupings since 1982 can be observed using the SPX. The first 13 year fractal is composed of a 3/7/5 year series ending in 1994. The second fractal is composed of two series: 3/7/7 years and 4/8/7 of 8 years ending in 2025. The terminal portion of the 1994 current 31 year second began in March 2020 and follows a 8-9/24/23 month :: x/2.5x/2.5x fractal growth sequence peaking(unadjusted for inflation) in July 2024(July 6 to be exact). The 23 month third fractal of the 8-9/24/23 month series is composed of a 5/10/10 month series. The third 10 month series started in October 2023 and is composed of a 13/28 of 31-33 week :: 59-60/149-150 day series expected to end on about 12 August 2024. This is the incipient 13/31 of 32 year 1982 31-32 year second fractal crash. A strong valuation rebound is expected followed by a precipitous crash.

The final nonlinear daily decay appears to be a 7-/13/7 of 13 day fractal :: y/2y/2y ending 12 August 2024 with a possible lower extension of 8-9 days. Will the August 12 2024 low and/or the possible extension lower low be below the Oct 2023 low? During the next 6 trading days ten year notes will trend significantly lower...