The Great 2025 Global Equity Crash: Ten Year Notes and Equity Torsades de Points completed 14 February 2025

It is hypothesis of this website that easily tradable assets, both nondebt and debt entities, grow and decay in an optimal and deterministic time-based self-assembly fractal manner; either in a three phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/1.5 to 2.5x or in a four phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. Unraveling of the US hegemony started in the 1990's by career US politicians, lobbied and supported by US corporations who favored greater profits with foreign-based manufacturing and inexpensive labor. The US hegemony is following a 4 phase 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series for equities and commodities after having an incipient 18 year fractal base from 1790 to 1807. Since 1982 US equities are following an interpolated 13/32 of 32-33/32-33/20 year four phase fractal series ending about 2054 . In this four phase series expected is a great 32-33 year second fractal crash occurring in 2025-2026. Since 2000 2-3 % average GDP annual growth has been sustained by an average of 5 % GDP-deficit spending with the US central bank, US citizens and institutions, and the world subsidizing US debt. Until 2020, low-labor cost imported manufactured goods exchanged for US farm goods, US energy, and US debt maintained a low inflationary environment. With the increasing cost of foreign labor - and more recently the US adopting an isolationist posture, the abrupt ice-cold alienation of former allies, and the threatened and real imposition of new tariffs - both support of US debt growth from other than the US sources and the expectation of a low inflationary environment will qua;itatively wither. A March 2020 3-phase 8+/24/14 month :: x/2.5x/1.6x fractal growth series ended on 27 October 2023. On February 14 2025 a new high for ACWI, the 115 trillion dollar ETF proxy, was observed with a tiny blow-off gap opening at the beginning of the trading day with an end trading valuation near the low of the day (see the ten day 15-minute unit ACWI chart at the bottom of the page.) : 14 February completed nested fractal growth series: an 8 December 2024 7/14/18/11 day :: x/2x/2.5x/1.5x inverse growth fractal series: a 5/11/10 day a/2-2.5x/2x growth fractal series: a 5 Aug 2024 24/53/59 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series: and a 27 Oct 2023 55/139/134 day :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series. See below.

TNX, the US Ten Year Note interest rate came within 0.2 % of its 23 week third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline. It is possible for TNX to touch the third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline on Tuesday or Wed, 18 or 19 February 2025 with a final 2/5/4-5 day growth fractal of ACWI completing a 5/11/11-12 day fractal series rather than the current 5/11/10 day series.

Hard Landing Ahead: The 5 August 2024 Final Fractal Growth: 24/53/49 of 49-52 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x

The 2025 Smoot-Hawley 2.0 new tariffs and announced counter tariffs are coming at the precise time of maximum fractal global peak or secondary peak equity valuation with 24 months of declining manufacturing data and re-inversion of long term debt minus short term debt yields after 2 years of steep inversion, greater than 1929.

Smoot-Hawley 2.0 is the last ditch populist response to the 1992 Perot 'Giant Sucking Sound' of American manufacturing jobs going south, west and north. The nationalistic Chinese government has consistently fostered growth of manufacturing jobs for Chinese workers in contrast to the US government who has supported election-donor US corporations (and individuals), the latter primarily interested in profit alone. Both US entities were not focused in a national strategy to maintain and grow America's manufacturing might. The US government has deficit spent at an annual average rate of greater than 5-7% of GDP to maintain a 2.5% GDP growth, while the US central bank printed dollars and sold debt to accommodate the US's growing trade deficits and an enlarging US service-based economy. The container-ship imports were primarily purchased by two American family workers vice one worker. With the debt load of US younger workers and the cost of housing with current interest rates, the average age of US home buyers is now 56. After 30 years of establishing international supply chains and a linked global macroeconomy, the decoupling effect of US tariffs and the counter tariffs will result in a much greater global effect than the early 1930's. With the ongoing Chinese housing bubble still undergoing collapse and a probable further decline in Chinese domestic consumption, a very hard landing global recession is coming.