Hard Landing Ahead: The 5 August 2024 Final Fractal Growth: 24/53/49 of 49-52 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x

The 2025 Smoot-Hawley 2.0 new tariffs and announced counter tariffs are coming at the precise time of maximum fractal global peak or secondary peak equity valuation with 24 months of declining manufacturing data and re-inversion of long term debt minus short term debt yields after 2 years of steep inversion, greater than 1929.

Smoot-Hawley 2.0 is the last ditch populist response to the 1992 Perot 'Giant Sucking Sound' of American manufacturing jobs going south, west and north. The nationalistic Chinese government has consistently fostered growth of manufacturing jobs for Chinese workers in contrast to the US government who has supported election-donor US corporations (and individuals), the latter primarily interested in profit alone. Both US entities were not focused in a national strategy to maintain and grow America's manufacturing might. The US government has deficit spent at an annual average rate of greater than 5-7% of GDP to maintain a 2.5% GDP growth, while the US central bank printed dollars and sold debt to accommodate the US's growing trade deficits and an enlarging US service-based economy. The container-ship imports were primarily purchased by two American family workers vice one worker. With the debt load of US younger workers and the cost of housing with current interest rates, the average age of US home buyers is now 56. After 30 years of establishing international supply chains and a linked global macroeconomy, the decoupling effect of US tariffs and the counter tariffs will result in a much greater global effect than the early 1930's. With the ongoing Chinese housing bubble still undergoing collapse and a probable further decline in Chinese domestic consumption, a very hard landing global recession is coming.