Monday, July 14, 2025
After the 15 July 2025 ACWI Global Equity Valuation Peak or Secondary High Peak, A Crash Devaluation Will Occur Over 18 trading days … The Fractal Progression of a US Real Estate Composite Proxy: VNQ …
The Buffet indicator, total equity market cap to GNP, shows equity valuations are at a historical bubble high at about 208%. This is especially remarkable because of the relatively high ten year US Note interest yields.
In April the last reported S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index was 329.608, also a historical high valuation, in spite of relatively high mortgage rates .
From its 7 April 2025 nadir valuation, ACWI, the global equity composite proxy, is following a 10/25/20 day :: x/2.5x/2x 3-phase fractal series followed by a 3/8/7 day x/2.5x/2.5x final blow-off ending with a targeted all-time peak (or secondary peak to the current 10 July peak) valuation on 15 July 2025.
From this 15 July 2025 historical global peak or secondary peak valuation, a historical initial crash devaluation will occur over 18 trading days completing a 19 February 2025 prior high 34 day (x) (5/13/12/7day) / /7 April 68 day 15 July 2025 peak (2x) and 85 day 2.5x nadir 34/85 day 1st and 2nd fractal series.
VNQ, a proxy for composite US real estate valuation, shows two series of 3-phase fractal series progressions from the March 2020 low: a 8+/24/14 months :: x/2.5x/1.5x series, followed by a 7/16 of 17/14-17 month :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x series.
On a weekly basis the second 3-phase series 7/16 of 17/14-17 month is a 29//(13/28/28 of 32 )//58-71 week :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x fractal decay series ending near the US 2026 midterm elections.
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