Saturday, August 9, 2025

The Deterministic Self-ordering Fractal Growth Pathway to the 11 Aug 2025 Global Equity Peak Valuation and the Crash Fractal Pathway to the Initial 10 Sept 2025 Crash Nadir Low

On 3 Sept 1929, the DJIA average reached a peak valuation of 381.17. Ninety-six years later (97 by fractal count) on 23 July 2025, the DJIA reached a peak valuation of 45073.63, about 118 times the previous century’s earlier peak valuation. The average US house in 1929 was about 6000 US dollars and in 2025 about 515000, a comparable 85.5 times fold increase in valuation. The DJIA valuation peak in 1929 was near the close of a US 1807 to 1932 :: 36/90 year first and second fractal series … and the peak valuation in 2025 near the close of a US 1982 to 2026 13/33 year first and second fractal interpolated series, part of the greater US 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x.2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series with a 90 year third fractal peak in Nov 2021, propelled yet higher in valuation in 2024 and 2025 by unprecedented US peacetime deficit to GDP Covid spending of about 15% and 12%, respectively, in 2020 and 2021. Global equity peak valuation, represented by ACWI, which includes Nvidia, the latter now the #1 market cap company at 4.46 trillion, about 15% higher than #2 Microsoft, reached an intraday peak valuation (similar to Nvidia’s ending daily close) on 8 August 2025 with an expected final minutely and hourly gapped peak blow-off valuation on 11 August 2025 for both ACWI and Nvidia. Going into a population-overdebt-burdened-related, asset-highest-ever-valuation-related, highest-consumer-product-cost(except vehicle fuel), tariff-and-US consumer-paid-for-related … recession … Nvidia’s PE ratio is currently about 59 and Microsoft’s 38, both perfectly valued on a daily basis, but grossly overvalued in the long term credit cycle basis. From the 27 Oct 2023 low the Global Equity ACWI propelled by historical deficit to GDP annual credit/money expansion followed a 3 phase x/2.5x/2.5x maximum valuation growth fractal progression of 55/139/136 days followed by a 4 phase 5/13/11/7 day decay fractal series ending 7 April 2025. Since 7 April 2025, valuation growth has occurred in two 3-phase fractal series: a 10/25/20 day :: x/2.5x/2x series ending 23 June 2025. And from this 23 June relative nadir a 7/15/14 of 15 day 3-phase growth fractal series has taken the ACWI to a double top peak valuation on 8 August 2025. The 2nd 15 day 2nd fractal subseries is a curvilinear blow-off of 4/8/5 days :: x/2x/1.5x’. The final 14 of 15 day 3rd fractal subseries was self-assembled into a 3/7/6 of 7 day fractal subseries with a characteristic nonlinear lower low gap between day 6 and 7 of the 7 day 2nd subfractal and starting 1 Aug 2025 a self-ordered 6 day growth series to 8 August ensued. A final 7 day 3rd subfractal blow-off peak valuation on 11 August 2025 will result in a 23 June 2025 to 11 August 7/15/15 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase growth final blow-off fractal series. From Friday 1 August 2025 ACWI has self-ordered into a 6/15/15 hour 3 phase growth series and is followed by a self-assembly 3/7/1 of 5-7 hour blow-off series. A gap higher at the opening on 11 August 2025 with a possible close near the low of the day would confirm this final self-assembly peak series. From the 11 August peak a 4/8/8/5 day 4-phase fractal decay series would take the ACWI to a 10 September 2025 initial crash nadir congruent with a Chinese property crash represented by the Shanghai property index of a April 2025 nadir 4 phase fractal series of 16/36/36-37/22-23 days. Fractal Charts to follow …

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