The 1982 to Feb/Mar 2026 :: 13/33 year :: x/2.5x Composite Equity Blow-off Peak Valuation And Thereafter, Crash Collapse Devaluation

The SPX, proxy for the global composite equity valuation, is observed to be completing a 3-phase 2009 12/29/30 Quarterly :: x/2.5/2.5x maximum Fractal Growth Series and a 1982 52/126 of 128-130 Quarterly Blow-off Valuation and Crash series.

The 1982 to 1994 52 Quarter series is composed of a 11/26/17 Quarter :: x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x 3-phase fractal growth series and the 1994 to 2026 valuation growth is composed of two 3-phase fractal series ; a 1994 10/25/25 Quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x series ending in 2009 and a 12/29/30 Quarterly series ending in Feb- Mar 2009. The Crash from the 126 Quarter Peak will be precipitous over 2 to 4 Quarters. Is there system deterministic self ordering of composite equity valuation growth and decay in the Assset-Debt System? It appears so. Equity, commodity, crypto Valuations grow by debt expansion, primarily, by governmental debt, which unlike corporate and citizen debt, is facilitated by direct money/debt printing. Accelerated governmental debt to GDP % expansion in the last 20 years has been unprecedented relative to other in peace time conditions. Valuations of equities, commodities, and crypto have directed benefited from governmental debt expansion. The 3-phase and 4-phase self-ordering self assembly fractal laws of growth and decay of asset valuations have been described before. A maxim can be added to these two laws: equity valuation growth in a political system strongly favoring equity investment by individual and corporate tax advantage and by malinvestment corporate buy back legislation, will grow to the near maximum fractal time frame. The system is near that maximum time frame of valuation and peak growth. After a 23 Oct 2023 55/139/135=6 :: x/2.5x/near 2.5x peak growth, a 5/12/12/7 day decay ending 7 April 20205 is observed.

The 7 April 2025 3-phase fractal growth series to 5 Jan 2026 is shown below:

The self ordering according Lammert self-assembly Fractal Laws of the 53 day first fractal is shown below:

The self ordering of the 107-108 day second fractal according to Lammert self-assembly Fractal Laws is shown below.

The projected 21 November 3rd Fractal Peak Valuation Growth is shown below:

7 April 2025 53/108 day 21 Nov 2025 Incipient 3rd Fractal Growth Confirmed

7 April 2025 53/108 day 21 Nov 2025 Incipient 3rd Fractal Growth Confirmed

The global ACWI equity index made a new high valuation today confirming the end of a 108 day 2nd Fractal on 21 November 2025 and a coincidental 21 November 2025 incipient 3rd fractal growth of a self assembly 7 April 2025 53/108/65-86 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2x' terminal 3 phase daily fractal series ... concluding growth of a 1982 13/33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series and concluding growth of a 2009 11-12/29-30/30 quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x terminal maximum fractal growth series. The current projection for the 21 November 2025 first of two subfractal growth series is 6/13/12 of 12-14/9-10 days. 3rd Fractal weakness will be evident if the final 9th or 10th day of the 4th fractal falls below the 108 day 2nd fractal trend line.

The Global Equity , Gold, Silver, Crypto 7-9 January 2026 Initial Crash Nadir? An Oct 1987 Nonlinear Occurrence?

How large will the non-sovereign-debt asset classes' crash devaluations be over the next 4-6 trading days? If a lower low of the SPX 7 April 2025 nadir is not exceeded, a probable 2026 3rd fractal higher high SPX valuation (greater than the 26 Dec 2025 ) will be made in the 1982-2026 :: 13/33 year 1st and 2nd Fractal Series, an interpolated component of the 1807 US Hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x-1.6x 4 phase fractal series.

The current Lammert Fractal model of the 53-56/138-140 day :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal time-based self-assembly of the SPX, the global equity proxy, since the 7 April 2025 low is depicted above. In this model, 4 days (x') of preceding decay serves as an initiating fractal base to the 7 April 2025 initial (2.5x')10 day ::2/4/4/3 :: x/2x/2x/1.5x initial first fractal for a (4)/10/25/20 day first fractal series ending 23 June 2025. In this Lammert Fractal model there are 4 identified subfractal series composing the 138-140 day 2nd fractal: a 29 day fractal subseries/ a (newly identified) 50 day fractal subseries , a 30 day fractal subseries , and a 28 of 32-34 day fractal subseries. The 50 day second fractal subseries is observed best with the DJIA and is composed of of a 7+/16/18/12 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x fractal series.

The 32-34 day 4th fractal subseries is composed of a 4/9/8 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x fractal series and a 2/4/3 day :: x/2x/1.5x fractal series to the SPX peak valuation on 26 December 2025. This 2/4/3 to peak valuation series is then completed as a 2/4/4 day :: x/2x/2x series which initiates a 26 Dec 2/4/4 day crash decay series ending 7 Jan (or a 2/4-5/4-5 day series or a 2/4/4/3 series) ending 8-9 January 2026. An alternative fractal interpretation is a 3-phase 7 April 2025 SPX: 34/69/83 day :: x/2x +1 day)/near 2.5x peak valuation on 26 December 2025 with the same decay crash fractal sequence. A final blow-off in GM, gold, and silver suggests that 26 December 2025 for the peak valuation for the 1982 13/33 year 1st and 2nd fractal cycles.

The 1982 13/33 Year :: x/2.5x First and Second Fractal Initial January 2026 Global Equity Crash

From March 2009 SPX Equity growth has grown to its maximum x/2.5x/2.5x fractal limit :: 11-12/29-30/29 quarters with the 29 quarter 3rd fractal 29 consisting of 6/12/13 quarters :: x/2x/2.5x and 16/32/39 months :: x/2x/2.5x. The SPX 16/32/39 monthly terminal 29 quarter 3rd Fractal growth pattern has self similarity to the SPX 7 April 2025 terminal near maximum terminal growth 34/69/83 day :: x/2x/2.5x 26 Dec 2025 current peak valuation. An 1987 type of crash is expected over next 7 trading days.

The Great December 2025 Incipient Crash: 12 Aug 1982, 13 Oct 2022, 7 April 2025 1st and 2nd Fractal Series - Synergistic - 2x to 2.5x Time Frame Incipient Second Fractal Nonlinearity12 Aug 1982, 13 Oct 2022, 7 April 2025 1st and 2nd Fractal Series - Synergistic - Self-Assembly 2x to 2.5x Time Frame Icipient Second Fractal Nonlinearity

From the Economic Fractalist 15 May 2005 Mainpage Re: 2nd Fractals (Cycles): : "A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle." ..."This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x." In the Window of Power Law Distribution 2nd Fractal Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System Self-Organized Criticality:

The original 7 April 2025 53/133-134 day :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series ending 30-31 December 2025 is the correct fractal model with the incipient 1982 13/32 0f 33 year :: x/2-2.5x crash in the final trading days of December 2025. On 20 November 2025 the asset debt system self-ordered a SPX 5/12 of 12-13/13-12 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series to initiate the terminal portion of the 12 Aug 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series; the terminal portion of a 13 Oct 2022 55/113 of 138 week :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series, and the terminal portion of a 7 April 2025 53/122 of 133-134 day :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series. The nonlinear crash will be during the last trading days of the December 2025 12-13 day 3rd fractal.

The incipient end December global equity crash will be an affirmation for those economists interpreting the copious data as showing extreme weakness of the American consumer, the American consumer-based economy, and the world economy. It will be a wake-up call for those who measure the economy primarily by equity market performance. The 10 Oct to 20 November 2025 day subfractal series is now observed as a 6/13/13 day ::x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series with trend lines better seen on SPX futures. While the SPX has not exceeded its 29 Oct 2025 peak valuation, the Wilshire 5000 and the global ACWI, propelled by rotation of money into the 'safer stocks of the DJIA' had valuation peaks on 11 and 12 Dec 2025. Will the end December 2025 initial lower low nonlinearity reach below the 7 April 2025 valuations? This nonlinearity is the beginning of about a 45 week progression to a final lower low valuation with an expected 80-90 % loss of equity valuation. There will be sharp valuation counter growth periods within this overall decay time frame. Added 16 Dec 2025. Blow-off intrahigh valuation for GM and gap lower valuation for the 92 trillion dollar equivalent ACWI ... The last of the speculative money has rotated into the 'safest equities and major banking equities with blow-off valuation in both areas. Paradoxically the 92 trillion global equity composite ACWI had a gap down lower on 16 December, rising during the day but unable to fill the gap. Retrospectively both the 2-phase and 3 phase 7 April models may be correct with an initial targeted crash nadir on 2 or 5 Jan 2026.

An Alternative Model : A 7 April 2025 to 5 Dec 34/69/68 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x Final High or Secondary High

Below is an alternative model with a 4 phase 7 April 2025 34/69/68/50-51 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal series with a 3rd fractal 68 day final high or secondary high on 5 December 2025. The characteristic nonlinear lower gap between day 68 and 69 (2x and 2.5x) identifies the 2nd fractal.

Fine Tuning: Peak Equity Valuation 1929 verses 2025: The Elegantly Simple Self-Ordering Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Daily, and Hourly Time-based Quantum Fractal Growth and Decay of Composite Equities In The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System

Is there an underlying time-based self-assembly fractal order to the growth and decay of equity valuations in the asset-debt macroeconomic system? It is the 2005 hypothesis of this website that the asset-debt system self-orders equity valuation growth and decay by two simple time-unit based fractal equations : a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x with respective units termed the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Fractal, and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x with respective units termed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Fractals. In the 4-phase fractal series, the 3rd 2-2.5x fractal represents peak valuation growth, all other end points in the 4-phase series and all end points the 3 phase fractal series represent nadir valuations. Fractal groupings are defined by underlying trendlines from the beginning to the end of the grouping. 2nd Fractals of both 3 and 4 phase fractals are characterized by a nonlinear lower low gap valuation in the terminal 2x to 2.5x portion of the 2nd fractal. The inception of fractal valuation decay is conjoined and interpolated with end fractal peak growth and vice versa. In terminal blow-off valuation growth, the first fractal can end on an aberrant additional unit high above the slope line and in terminal blow-off series, the 3rd fractal peak of a 4 phase series can end at a near fibonacci 1.5-1.6x time range. After the Buttonwood agreement in 1792 and an initiating 4 phase fractal series of 16years, an 1807 4-phase US hegemonic fractal series of 36/90/90/54-57 years commenced with lows in 1842-43, 1932, a 90 year high in 2021, and an expected low in 2074-77. The 90 year 3rd and the 54-57 year 4th Fractals of this series starting in 1932, are composed of two fractal series: a 3-phase 10-11/20-21/20-21 years:: x/2x/2x series ending in 1982 and a 1982 13/currently 32 of 33/33/20 year series :: x/2.5x/2.5x/15-1.6x ending in 2076. The 90 year 3rd fractal peaking Nov 2021 is interpolated in the 1982 13/33 :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series as shown below.

The 90 year 2.5x Nov 2021 valuation peak was later exceeded because of average annual US deficit to GDP governmental spending from 2020-2025 of 8.4%. This deficit to GDP spending compares to the long average from 1948 to 2020 of 2.6%. The 2020-2025 deficit spending generated an average GDP growth of 2.9% vice a long term 3.15% which includes a negative 7% in 2009 of the great recession. Covid 2020 and 2021 15% and 12% deficit to GDP spending , supply chain disruptions, build back better spending , and the recent tax breaks for billionaires have contributed to the peacetime massive deficit spending. US Equity (and the global equity composite) valuations peaked on 28/29 Oct 2025 at over 220% of US GDP – an all time historical high. What causes the timing of peak equity valuation? Equities are the most taxed advantaged asset within the asset debt system and their valuations grow to the longest possible fractal growth. Accompanying this tax advantage, fractal length to peak is ultimately determined by ongoing credit expansion produced by a residual sufficient population of governmental, corporate, and consumers, willing and able to go into further debt – given the cost of ongoing ADL’s (activities of daily living including insurance premiums), job and wage expectations, payments on accumulated debt, perceived business opportunities, and concurrent asset valuation prices and expectations of asset future valuations. The October 2025 peak valuation ended the 12/29/29 Quarterly :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth of the 3-phase fractal series starting March 2009. (This was preceded by a 10/25/25 Quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3 phase series starting 1994. (see above graph)

The 3rd 29 Quarter Fractal of the SPX ‘s current 2009 12/29/29 quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal growth series -started with a nadir in December 2018 and is composed of a 6/12/13 quarter :: 16/32/38 month :: x/2x/2.5x fractal subseries (as of Nov 2025). The Global Covid shock anomaly with unemployment spiking from 3.9% in late 2019 to 14.7% in April 2020 produced an anomaly in fractal equity valuation with Q6 of the 1st Fractal 6Q subseries having a lower valuation nadir than Q1. A lower valuation fits with the associated credit contraction, offset in April 2020 with stimulus checks and later MBS credit expansion. The final 13Q 3rd Fractal of the 2018 6/12/13 Q 3-phase series is composed of a 2/4/5/3 :: x/2x/2,5x/1.5x or 11 Q 4-phase series and 3 quarter fragment starting 7 April 2025. The 7 April 3Q fragment is either composed of a 53/111 day :: x/2-2.5x First and 2nd Fractal series ...

... or alternatively, this is an interpolated 2-phase fractal series within the actual terminal 3- phase fractal series of 34/69/42-44 days :: x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x' as depicted below. A nonlinear lower low gap exist between day 68 and 69 of the 69 day second fractal, which was noted in the 2005 original web page, to be the terminal hallmark of a second fractal. The 1.5 to 1.6x represents a near fibonacci terminal maximum growth ratio of the 28 day ideal base x' (69 days divided by 2.5x).

Fractal subseries self-ordering growth of both the likely interpolated 53/111day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series and the more probable and actual 3-phase terminal fractal growth series reside in terminal portion of the 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2-2.5x first and second fractal growth series and have exquisitely followed the above cited 3-phase and 4-phase fractal growth self-assembly laws. 1929 and 2025 Initial Crash Decay ... 1932 concluded an 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series; 2026 will conclude a 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series. In 1932 the peak to nadir devaluation of 90% occurred over 32 months with a definable pattern of fractal decay, fractal counter rally growth and further fractal decay. In 1929 peak growth on 3 Sept 1929 which transpired during the 8 day 3rd fractal of a 5/11/8 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.6x 3 phase terminal fractal growth series. The 8 day 3rd fractal containing the 3 Sept 1929 peak growth the became the interpolated incipient 1st fractal of a 8/19/16/12 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x day 4-phase decay fractal series taking the DJIA to its initial Nov 1929 low with a loss of 50% of its value. The 1982 13/32 of 33 year terminal Oct 2025 growth fractal series for the SPX is a 3-phase 10 Oct 3/7/6 day series :: x/2-2.5x/2x peaking 29 October, the terminal day of a 7 April 2025 34/69/42 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.5x' 3-phase fibonacci-like growth fractal series with lesser peaks on days 43, 44,and 45 (1.6x'). The 29 Oct peak growth is then included in a 28 Oct 9 day :: 2/5/4 day :: 55 hour :: 10/22/24 hour :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase decay fractal series ending 7 Nov 2025, which becomes the base First Decay Fractal.

A 28 Oct 2025 9/20/16/12 day :: 54/135/108/81 hour x/2-2.5x/2x'/1.5x' 4 phase x/2x/2x’/1.5x’ 4-phase fractal crash decay series where x’ = 8 days is nearly identical to the 4-phase 1929 8/19/17/12 day fractal decay series with 2 days of fractal overlap in 3rd fractal 6 day terminal peak valuation on 29 Oct 2025 (3/7/6 days) and initial 28 October 2025 9 day crash base first fractal of the 9/20/16/12 day Lammert 4-phase fractal crash decay series. ... added 29 Nov 2025 ... ... 2x to 2.5x Terminal Second Fractal Self-Organized Criticality ... Like major earthquakes, major forest fires, and major solar flares as compared to smaller and very contained quakes, fires, and flares - the smaller time scale empirically observed nonlinear lower low gap 'crash' devaluations in the terminal 2x to 2.5x time frame of Lammert Asset-Debt Macroeconomic  Valuation Equity  2nd Fractals represent 'small contained nonlinear crashes' and also appear to follow a power-law distribution, a characteristic signature of systems in a state of fractal Self-Organized Criticality (SOC). The asset debt system is now in the window of an 1982 major SOC and a major crash.

The 1982-2026 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd Fractal series is temporally far into the 2x-2.5x :: 26-33 year terminal portion of the 33 year 2nd Fractal with a 2009 maximal fractal growth series of x/2.5x/2.5x :: 12/29/29 Quarters with the 3rd 29 quarters represented by 16/32/38 months :: x/2x/2.5x peaking at the 37 month in Oct 2025 with a lower high in the 38th month Nov 2025.  The terminal 38 months is composed of a 13/26 month first and second fractal series starting 13 Oct 2022.

As 28 Nov 2025 the 13/26 month :: x/2x first and second fractals are composed of 55/111 weeks :: x/2x and 262/525 days :: x/2x. After 29 Oct 2025 global peak (SPX/ACWI) equity valuation fractal growth, the 1982 asset-debt macroeconomic system, following a power law distribution, is in the extreme terminal 1982 2x-2.5x - and the terminal 13 Oct 2022 2x-2.5x - Second Fractal window of nonlinearity and major crash SOC (Self-Organized Criticality.)