The Great December 2025 Incipient Crash: 12 Aug 1982, 13 Oct 2022, 7 April 2025 1st and 2nd Fractal Series - Synergistic - 2x to 2.5x Time Frame Incipient Second Fractal Nonlinearity12 Aug 1982, 13 Oct 2022, 7 April 2025 1st and 2nd Fractal Series - Synergistic - Self-Assembly 2x to 2.5x Time Frame Icipient Second Fractal Nonlinearity

From the Economic Fractalist 15 May 2005 Mainpage Re: 2nd Fractals (Cycles): : "A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle." ..."This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x." In the Window of Power Law Distribution 2nd Fractal Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System Self-Organized Criticality:

The original 7 April 2025 53/133-134 day :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series ending 30-31 December 2025 is the correct fractal model with the incipient 1982 13/32 0f 33 year :: x/2-2.5x crash in the final trading days of December 2025. On 20 November 2025 the asset debt system self-ordered a SPX 5/12 of 12-13/13-12 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series to initiate the terminal portion of the 12 Aug 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series; the terminal portion of a 13 Oct 2022 55/113 of 138 week :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series, and the terminal portion of a 7 April 2025 53/122 of 133-134 day :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series. The nonlinear crash will be during the last trading days of the December 2025 12-13 day 3rd fractal.

The incipient end December global equity crash will be an affirmation for those economists interpreting the copious data as showing extreme weakness of the American consumer, the American consumer-based economy, and the world economy. It will be a wake-up call for those who measure the economy primarily by equity market performance. The 10 Oct to 20 November 2025 day subfractal series is now observed as a 6/13/13 day ::x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series with trend lines better seen on SPX futures. While the SPX has not exceeded its 29 Oct 2025 peak valuation, the Wilshire 5000 and the global ACWI, propelled by rotation of money into the 'safer stocks of the DJIA' had valuation peaks on 11 and 12 Dec 2025. Will the end December 2025 initial lower low nonlinearity reach below the 7 April 2025 valuations? This nonlinearity is the beginning of about a 45 week progression to a final lower low valuation with an expected 80-90 % loss of equity valuation. There will be sharp valuation counter growth periods within this overall decay time frame.

An Alternative Model : A 7 April 2025 to 5 Dec 34/69/68 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x Final High or Secondary High

Below is an alternative model with a 4 phase 7 April 2025 34/69/68/50-51 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal series with a 3rd fractal 68 day final high or secondary high on 5 December 2025. The characteristic nonlinear lower gap between day 68 and 69 (2x and 2.5x) identifies the 2nd fractal.

Fine Tuning: Peak Equity Valuation 1929 verses 2025: The Elegantly Simple Self-Ordering Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Daily, and Hourly Time-based Quantum Fractal Growth and Decay of Composite Equities In The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System

Is there an underlying time-based self-assembly fractal order to the growth and decay of equity valuations in the asset-debt macroeconomic system? It is the 2005 hypothesis of this website that the asset-debt system self-orders equity valuation growth and decay by two simple time-unit based fractal equations : a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x with respective units termed the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Fractal, and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x with respective units termed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Fractals. In the 4-phase fractal series, the 3rd 2-2.5x fractal represents peak valuation growth, all other end points in the 4-phase series and all end points the 3 phase fractal series represent nadir valuations. Fractal groupings are defined by underlying trendlines from the beginning to the end of the grouping. 2nd Fractals of both 3 and 4 phase fractals are characterized by a nonlinear lower low gap valuation in the terminal 2x to 2.5x portion of the 2nd fractal. The inception of fractal valuation decay is conjoined and interpolated with end fractal peak growth and vice versa. In terminal blow-off valuation growth, the first fractal can end on an aberrant additional unit high above the slope line and in terminal blow-off series, the 3rd fractal peak of a 4 phase series can end at a near fibonacci 1.5-1.6x time range. After the Buttonwood agreement in 1792 and an initiating 4 phase fractal series of 16years, an 1807 4-phase US hegemonic fractal series of 36/90/90/54-57 years commenced with lows in 1842-43, 1932, a 90 year high in 2021, and an expected low in 2074-77. The 90 year 3rd and the 54-57 year 4th Fractals of this series starting in 1932, are composed of two fractal series: a 3-phase 10-11/20-21/20-21 years:: x/2x/2x series ending in 1982 and a 1982 13/currently 32 of 33/33/20 year series :: x/2.5x/2.5x/15-1.6x ending in 2076. The 90 year 3rd fractal peaking Nov 2021 is interpolated in the 1982 13/33 :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series as shown below.

The 90 year 2.5x Nov 2021 valuation peak was later exceeded because of average annual US deficit to GDP governmental spending from 2020-2025 of 8.4%. This deficit to GDP spending compares to the long average from 1948 to 2020 of 2.6%. The 2020-2025 deficit spending generated an average GDP growth of 2.9% vice a long term 3.15% which includes a negative 7% in 2009 of the great recession. Covid 2020 and 2021 15% and 12% deficit to GDP spending , supply chain disruptions, build back better spending , and the recent tax breaks for billionaires have contributed to the peacetime massive deficit spending. US Equity (and the global equity composite) valuations peaked on 28/29 Oct 2025 at over 220% of US GDP – an all time historical high. What causes the timing of peak equity valuation? Equities are the most taxed advantaged asset within the asset debt system and their valuations grow to the longest possible fractal growth. Accompanying this tax advantage, fractal length to peak is ultimately determined by ongoing credit expansion produced by a residual sufficient population of governmental, corporate, and consumers, willing and able to go into further debt – given the cost of ongoing ADL’s (activities of daily living including insurance premiums), job and wage expectations, payments on accumulated debt, perceived business opportunities, and concurrent asset valuation prices and expectations of asset future valuations. The October 2025 peak valuation ended the 12/29/29 Quarterly :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth of the 3-phase fractal series starting March 2009. (This was preceded by a 10/25/25 Quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3 phase series starting 1994. (see above graph)

The 3rd 29 Quarter Fractal of the SPX ‘s current 2009 12/29/29 quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal growth series -started with a nadir in December 2018 and is composed of a 6/12/13 quarter :: 16/32/38 month :: x/2x/2.5x fractal subseries (as of Nov 2025). The Global Covid shock anomaly with unemployment spiking from 3.9% in late 2019 to 14.7% in April 2020 produced an anomaly in fractal equity valuation with Q6 of the 1st Fractal 6Q subseries having a lower valuation nadir than Q1. A lower valuation fits with the associated credit contraction, offset in April 2020 with stimulus checks and later MBS credit expansion. The final 13Q 3rd Fractal of the 2018 6/12/13 Q 3-phase series is composed of a 2/4/5/3 :: x/2x/2,5x/1.5x or 11 Q 4-phase series and 3 quarter fragment starting 7 April 2025. The 7 April 3Q fragment is either composed of a 53/111 day :: x/2-2.5x First and 2nd Fractal series ...

... or alternatively, this is an interpolated 2-phase fractal series within the actual terminal 3- phase fractal series of 34/69/42-44 days :: x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x' as depicted below. A nonlinear lower low gap exist between day 68 and 69 of the 69 day second fractal, which was noted in the 2005 original web page, to be the terminal hallmark of a second fractal. The 1.5 to 1.6x represents a near fibonacci terminal maximum growth ratio of the 28 day ideal base x' (69 days divided by 2.5x).

Fractal subseries self-ordering growth of both the likely interpolated 53/111day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series and the more probable and actual 3-phase terminal fractal growth series reside in terminal portion of the 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2-2.5x first and second fractal growth series and have exquisitely followed the above cited 3-phase and 4-phase fractal growth self-assembly laws. 1929 and 2025 Initial Crash Decay ... 1932 concluded an 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series; 2026 will conclude a 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series. In 1932 the peak to nadir devaluation of 90% occurred over 32 months with a definable pattern of fractal decay, fractal counter rally growth and further fractal decay. In 1929 peak growth on 3 Sept 1929 which transpired during the 8 day 3rd fractal of a 5/11/8 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.6x 3 phase terminal fractal growth series. The 8 day 3rd fractal containing the 3 Sept 1929 peak growth the became the interpolated incipient 1st fractal of a 8/19/16/12 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x day 4-phase decay fractal series taking the DJIA to its initial Nov 1929 low with a loss of 50% of its value. The 1982 13/32 of 33 year terminal Oct 2025 growth fractal series for the SPX is a 3-phase 10 Oct 3/7/6 day series :: x/2-2.5x/2x peaking 29 October, the terminal day of a 7 April 2025 34/69/42 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.5x' 3-phase fibonacci-like growth fractal series with lesser peaks on days 43, 44,and 45 (1.6x'). The 29 Oct peak growth is then included in a 28 Oct 9 day :: 2/5/4 day :: 55 hour :: 10/22/24 hour :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase decay fractal series ending 7 Nov 2025, which becomes the base First Decay Fractal.

A 28 Oct 2025 9/20/16/12 day :: 54/135/108/81 hour x/2-2.5x/2x'/1.5x' 4 phase x/2x/2x’/1.5x’ 4-phase fractal crash decay series where x’ = 8 days is nearly identical to the 4-phase 1929 8/19/17/12 day fractal decay series with 2 days of fractal overlap in 3rd fractal 6 day terminal peak valuation on 29 Oct 2025 (3/7/6 days) and initial 28 October 2025 9 day crash base first fractal of the 9/20/16/12 day Lammert 4-phase fractal crash decay series. ... added 29 Nov 2025 ... ... 2x to 2.5x Terminal Second Fractal Self-Organized Criticality ... Like major earthquakes, major forest fires, and major solar flares as compared to smaller and very contained quakes, fires, and flares - the smaller time scale empirically observed nonlinear lower low gap 'crash' devaluations in the terminal 2x to 2.5x time frame of Lammert Asset-Debt Macroeconomic  Valuation Equity  2nd Fractals represent 'small contained nonlinear crashes' and also appear to follow a power-law distribution, a characteristic signature of systems in a state of fractal Self-Organized Criticality (SOC). The asset debt system is now in the window of an 1982 major SOC and a major crash.

The 1982-2026 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd Fractal series is temporally far into the 2x-2.5x :: 26-33 year terminal portion of the 33 year 2nd Fractal with a 2009 maximal fractal growth series of x/2.5x/2.5x :: 12/29/29 Quarters with the 3rd 29 quarters represented by 16/32/38 months :: x/2x/2.5x peaking at the 37 month in Oct 2025 with a lower high in the 38th month Nov 2025.  The terminal 38 months is composed of a 13/26 month first and second fractal series starting 13 Oct 2022.

As 28 Nov 2025 the 13/26 month :: x/2x first and second fractals are composed of 55/111 weeks :: x/2x and 262/525 days :: x/2x. After 29 Oct 2025 global peak (SPX/ACWI) equity valuation fractal growth, the 1982 asset-debt macroeconomic system, following a power law distribution, is in the extreme terminal 1982 2x-2.5x - and the terminal 13 Oct 2022 2x-2.5x - Second Fractal window of nonlinearity and major crash SOC (Self-Organized Criticality.)

Peak Equity Valuation 1929 verses 2025: The Elegantly Simple Self-Ordering Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Daily, and Hourly Time-based Quantum Fractal Growth and Decay of Composite Equities In The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System

Is there an underlying time-based self-assembly fractal order to the growth and decay of equity valuations in the asset-debt macroeconomic system? It is the hypothesis of this website that the asset-debt system self-orders equity valuation growth and decay by two simple time-unit based fractal equations : a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x with respective units termed the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Fractal, and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x with respective units termed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Fractals. In the 4-phase fractal series, the 3rd 2-2.5x fractal represents peak valuation growth, all other end points in the 4-phase series and all end points the 3 phase fractal series represent nadir valuations. Fractal groupings are defined by underlying trendlines from the beginning to the end of the grouping. 2nd Fractals of both 3 and 4 phase fractals are characterized by a nonlinear lower low gap valuation in the terminal 2x to 2.5x portion of the 2nd fractal. The inception of fractal valuation decay is conjoined and interpolated with end fractal peak growth and vice versa. After the Buttonwood agreement in 1792 and an initiating 4 phase fractal series of 16years, an 1807 4-phase US hegemonic fractal series of 36/90/90/54-57 years commenced with lows in 1842-43, 1932, a 90 year high in 2021, and an expected low in 2074-77. The 90 year 3rd and the 54-57 year 4th Fractals of this series starting in 1932, are composed of two fractal series: a 3-phase 10-11/20-21/20-21 :: x/2x/2x series ending in 1982 and a 1982 13/currently 32 of 33/33/20 year series ending in 2076. The 90 year 3rd fractal peaking Nov 2021 is interpolated in the 1982 13/33 :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series as shown below.

The 90 year 2.5x Nov 2021 valuation peak was later exceeded because of average annual US deficit to GDP governmental spending from 2020-2025 of 8.4%. This deficit to GDP spending compares to the long average from 1948 to 2020 of 2.6%. The 2020-2025 deficit spending generated an average GDP growth of 2.9% vice a long term 3.15% which includes a negative 7% in 2009 of the great recession. Covid 2020 and 2021 15% and 12% deficit to GDP spending , supply chain disruptions, build back better spending , and the recent tax breaks for billionaires have contributed to the peacetime massive deficit spending. US Equity (and the global equity composite) valuations peaked on 28/29 Oct 2025 at over 220% of US GDP - an all time historical high. What causes the timing of peak equity valuation? Equities are the most taxed advantaged asset within the asset debt system and their valuations grow to the longest possible fractal growth. Accompanying this tax advantage, fractal length to peak is ultimately determined by ongoing credit expansion produced by a residual sufficient population of governmental, corporate, and consumers, willing and able to go into further debt - given the cost of ongoing ADL’s (activities of daily living including insurance premiums), job and wage expectations, payments on accumulated debt, perceived business opportunities, and concurrent asset valuation prices and expectations of asset future valuations. The October 2025 peak valuation ended the 12/29/29 Quarterly :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth of the 3-phase fractal series starting March 2009. (This was preceded by a 10/25/25 Quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3 phase series starting 1994. (see above graph)

The 3rd 29 Quarter Fractal of the SPX 's current 2009 12/29/29 quarter :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal growth series -started with a nadir in December 2018 and is composed of a 6/12/13 quarter :: 16/32/37 month :: x/2x/2.5 fractal subseries (as of Nov 2025). The Global Covid shock anomaly with unemployment spiking from 3.9% in late 2019 to 14.7% in April 2020 produced an anomaly in fractal equity valuation with Q6 of the 1st Fractal 6Q subseries having a lower valuation nadir than Q1. A lower valuation fits with the associated credit contraction, offset in April 2020 with stimulus checks and later MBS credit expansion. The final 13Q 3rd Fractal of the 2018 6/12/13 Q 3-phase series is composed of a 2/4/5/3 or 11 Q 4-phase series and 3 quarter fragment starting 7 April 2025. It is composed of a 53 /111 day :: x/2- 2.5x First and 2nd Fractal series.

1929 and 2025 Initial Crash Decay 1932 concluded an 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series; 2026 will conclude a. 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series. In 1932 the peak to nadir devaluation of 90% occurred over 32 months with a definable pattern of fractal decay, fractal counter rally growth and further fractal decay. In 1929 peak growth on 3 Sept 1929 occurred in the 8 day 3rd fractal of a 5/11/8 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.6x 3 phase fractal series. The 8 day 3rd fractal containing peak growth became the interpolated incipient 1st fractal of a 8/19/16/12 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x day 4-phase series taking the DJIA to its initial Nov low with a loss of 50% of its value. The final Oct 2025 growth fractal series for the SPX is a 10 Oct 3/7/6/5 day series :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.6x ending 4 Nov 2025. A prior 27 October 7/17-18/14/10 day incipient crash fractal series was postulated. Friday is day 18 of this possible fractal solution. Another possibility is a 22 Oct 2025 9-10/17 of 18-20/16-18/12-13 day 4 phase x/2x/2x'/1.5x' fractal crash decay series where x' = 8 days. The SPX 10 Oct 2025 3/7/6 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x blow-off series to the 29 Oct intraday peak and the completed 3/7/6/5 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.6x 4-phase fractal series has an equivalent 15-16/39-40/38/24 hour :: x/2-25x/2-2.5x/1.5x 4 phase series.

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1920-30's Irving Fisher and Lammert Quantum Fractal Saturation Asset Debt Macroeconomics

Looking at the valuation fractal growth patterns for the valid proxy of world's composite equity system, the SPX, since 7 April, 2025, (see previous post) it is probable that an observant and analyzing AI program, would acknowledge that the 4-phase and 3-phase fractal patterns identified the 2009 title page of 'Lammert Saturation Macroeconomics' have been validated. On 15 October 1929, in the midst of a 30 August to 13 Nov 1929 DJIA peak valuation to initial decay 8/19/16/12 day :: 4-phase y/2-2.5y/2xy/1.5y Lammert fractal incipient crash decay series (where xy = y in daily time units and represents a lower lower high) collapse, Irving Fishing infamously stated "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau". He redeemed himself in 1933 by qualitatively identifying the reason for the ongoing 1930's depression and the shorter 2026 one to come ): too great an unsustainable amount of accumulated private and corporate debt relative to GDP (vice asset prices). Paying that debt down led to a synergistic progressive collapse in employment and asset prices, where un-defaulted residual debt became even a greater burden to repay. The US hegemonic empire is a new entity to the old world order, following a 4-phase 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-16x Lammert equity-valuation-equivalent fractal series pattern ending in about 2074-2077. The US equity- equivalent valuation 90 year 2nd fractal nadir in 1932 was followed by an interpolated 51 year x/2x/2x fractal growth pattern of 10-11/20-21/20-21 years ending in 1982 with the Volcker early 1980's Fed US debt instrument interest rate increases to curb inflation. An interpolated 1982 : 13/33/33/20 year fractal series will conclude the 'great'1807 36/90/9/54-57 year 4-phase Lammert Fractal series. Looking at the (Fischer) US private/corporate debt to GDP accumulation (FRED data) acceleration (accumulated debt/dt2) ratios in the 1982 to 2026 13/33 :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series (Chinese ratios are much worse), private citizen/GDP debt ratios have been negative for the last 5 Quarters and corporation ratios have been realtively flat even with new AI debt accumulation. Eventually it is the private citizens (and their accumulated debt load) who will have to buy the products of the debt laden-ed corporations. With AI reducing jobs among citizens, how is this mathematically possible? Irving Fischer was qualitatively correct as proven by the 1930's depression and the 2009 great recession. And the asset-debt macroeconomy's deterministic fractal self-assembly empirical, observable self-ordering patterns for growth and decay of composite asset valuations have spoke and will speak for themselves.

New Fractal Model: A 1929-like 4-Phase Fractal Decay Series Crash at the conclusion of a 7 April 2025 to 31 December 2025 53/133 day :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd Fractal Series

The Current 1929-like 4-phase Lammert Fractal Decay Model with a Transient Nadir Ending 31 December 2025 (see red blocks above) Within the 7 April 2025 to 31 December 2025 53/132-133 day :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd Fractal Series rest the two average high valuation days and the intraday SPX/ACWI peak valuation on days on 28 and 29 Oct, and 29 Oct respectively ... The potential interpolated 27 October 7/17-18/14/10 day 4 phase Lammert crash decay fractal series would be very similar to the 30 Aug 1929 to 13 Nov 8/19/16/12 day 4 phase fractal decay crash series with 2025 lows on day 7 day of the first fractal, day 17-18 of the 2nd fractal and day 10 of the 4th fractal and a lower lower final high on day 14 of the 3rd fractal. The fractal annotation to show a deteriorating 4 phase decay series would be y/2-2.5y/2xy/1.5y, where y =xy in unit time length and the 2xy of the 3rd fractal represents lower lower high growth. For 1929 the respective lows occurred on day 8, day 19, and day 12 of the respective 1st, 2nd, and 4th fractals and a lower lower high on day 16 of the 3rd fractal.