The Great 2025 Global Equity Crash: Ten Year Notes and Equity Torsades de Points completed 14 February 2025

It is hypothesis of this website that easily tradable assets, both nondebt and debt entities, grow and decay in an optimal and deterministic time-based self-assembly fractal manner; either in a three phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/1.5 to 2.5x or in a four phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. Unraveling of the US hegemony started in the 1990's by career US politicians, lobbied and supported by US corporations who favored greater profits with foreign-based manufacturing and inexpensive labor. The US hegemony is following a 4 phase 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series for equities and commodities after having an incipient 18 year fractal base from 1790 to 1807. Since 1982 US equities are following an interpolated 13/32 of 32-33/32-33/20 year four phase fractal series ending about 2054 . In this four phase series expected is a great 32-33 year second fractal crash occurring in 2025-2026. Since 2000 2-3 % average GDP annual growth has been sustained by an average of 5 % GDP-deficit spending with the US central bank, US citizens and institutions, and the world subsidizing US debt. Until 2020, low-labor cost imported manufactured goods exchanged for US farm goods, US energy, and US debt maintained a low inflationary environment. With the increasing cost of foreign labor - and more recently the US adopting an isolationist posture, the abrupt ice-cold alienation of former allies, and the threatened and real imposition of new tariffs - both support of US debt growth from other than the US sources and the expectation of a low inflationary environment will qua;itatively wither. A March 2020 3-phase 8+/24/14 month :: x/2.5x/1.6x fractal growth series ended on 27 October 2023. On February 14 2025 a new high for ACWI, the 115 trillion dollar ETF proxy, was observed with a tiny blow-off gap opening at the beginning of the trading day with an end trading valuation near the low of the day (see the ten day 15-minute unit ACWI chart at the bottom of the page.) : 14 February completed nested fractal growth series: an 8 December 2024 7/14/18/11 day :: x/2x/2.5x/1.5x inverse growth fractal series: a 5/11/10 day a/2-2.5x/2x growth fractal series: a 5 Aug 2024 24/53/59 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series: and a 27 Oct 2023 55/139/134 day :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series. See below.

TNX, the US Ten Year Note interest rate came within 0.2 % of its 23 week third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline. It is possible for TNX to touch the third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline on Tuesday or Wed, 18 or 19 February 2025 with a final 2/5/4-5 day growth fractal of ACWI completing a 5/11/11-12 day fractal series rather than the current 5/11/10 day series.

Hard Landing Ahead: The 5 August 2024 Final Fractal Growth: 24/53/49 of 49-52 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x

The 2025 Smoot-Hawley 2.0 new tariffs and announced counter tariffs are coming at the precise time of maximum fractal global peak or secondary peak equity valuation with 24 months of declining manufacturing data and re-inversion of long term debt minus short term debt yields after 2 years of steep inversion, greater than 1929.

Smoot-Hawley 2.0 is the last ditch populist response to the 1992 Perot 'Giant Sucking Sound' of American manufacturing jobs going south, west and north. The nationalistic Chinese government has consistently fostered growth of manufacturing jobs for Chinese workers in contrast to the US government who has supported election-donor US corporations (and individuals), the latter primarily interested in profit alone. Both US entities were not focused in a national strategy to maintain and grow America's manufacturing might. The US government has deficit spent at an annual average rate of greater than 5-7% of GDP to maintain a 2.5% GDP growth, while the US central bank printed dollars and sold debt to accommodate the US's growing trade deficits and an enlarging US service-based economy. The container-ship imports were primarily purchased by two American family workers vice one worker. With the debt load of US younger workers and the cost of housing with current interest rates, the average age of US home buyers is now 56. After 30 years of establishing international supply chains and a linked global macroeconomy, the decoupling effect of US tariffs and the counter tariffs will result in a much greater global effect than the early 1930's. With the ongoing Chinese housing bubble still undergoing collapse and a probable further decline in Chinese domestic consumption, a very hard landing global recession is coming.

Final Self-Assembly LAMMERT Fractal Growth: 10 January 2025: Final 27 October 2023 55/139/110 day :: x/2.5x/2x Lower High Equity Growth and 1982 13/32 Year Interpolated First and Second Fractal Lower High Equity Growth

On 9 Dec 2024 the global Equity composite ACWI reached an all high at 123.58. This day of peak valuation growth occurred exactly on a x/2.5x/1.618x 27 Oct 2023 :: 55/139/89 day fractal series. The SPX reached its maximum a trading day earlier, still very close to a third fractal Fibonacci time ratio of its 55 day base first fractal.

Like the Spanish empire of the 16th century, the American hegemony, is burdened with massive unrepayable debt and the accumulated interest on that debt. While short term US treasury rates are controlled somewhat by the Central Bank (and more so by the preceding low inflation environment secondary to 1990’s NAFTA and the 1999 China WTO agreements), long term US rates are controlled more by market forces. With American companies and ultimately consumers expected to pay increasing tariffs, the market is demanding higher interest US rates on long term instruments for anticipated inflation. After more than 760 days, uninversion of the 3 month minus ten year US note occurred on 13 December 2024 with a rising positive value of 0.32 on 8 January 2025. The European manufacturing economy is crippled with ever high energy cost and the Chinese economy is imploding domestically with its internal property collapse and its dependence on exporting manufactured goods to a world of highly indebted consumers and defensive tariff-proposing governments. A 1982 13/32 year 50/125 quarter :: x/2.5x nonlinear collapse in global equity valuations would abruptly change inflation expectations with a collapse in long US term interest rates. This is expected to happen in this quarter and the next quarter. The US hegemony is following an 1807 36/90/90/54 year x/2.5x/2.5x/2x Fractal pattern expected to end in 2074-75. Nadirs occurred in 1842/43 and 1932 with a 90 year third fractal peak on 8 November 2021. The SPX is following an interpolated 1982 13/32/32/20 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5 4-phase Lammert self-ordered fractal series. The valuation fall from the SPX’s 2024 high of 6100 could be as low as 900 or 85% if the SPX nadirs near its 32 year second fractal trend line.

27/67 OF 68 DAYS :: X/2.5X : THE 5 AUGUST 2024 TO 14 DECEMBER 2024 1ST AND TERMINAL 2ND CRASH FRACTAL SERIES

The 27 October 2023 to 5 August 2024 55/139 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series occurred with a nonlinear lower low gap between day 137 and day 138 and again between day 138 and 139, one day beyond the usual maximum 2.5x second fractal time limit with a reversal on day 139 ending near the high of the day. It is possible a partial extra day could occur for the 5 August 2024 to 14 December 2024 27 day/currently 67 of 68 day first and 2nd fractal series. For the next 30 years with the immutable central bank remedy of monetization of debt , maximum 2.5x length of second fractals … in the first use of money and debt creation arena, the equity market -and by the advantaged wealthy who can and will readily borrow – will occur and should be expected. The elan of the December 2024 US Super Equity Bubble is divorced from the underlying realities of the citizens’ economy; manufacturing indicators down for 24 months, full-time jobs decreasing, high consumer debt load, and debt payment delinquencies increasing. The 68th/69th day of the x/2.5x 27/68-69 day 5 August 2024 will be a nonlinear lower low. How low will the low be? Time will tell. Is Tri-Continental Corp that dates before and survived 1919 the coal-mine canary? A lower low gap occurred on Friday the 13th.

On an optimistic note: perhaps Elon Musk’s unique abilities can be coordinated to target the production of enough thorium reactors to produce 50% of America’s energy requirements by 2035.

The Great Crash: The 5 August to 13 December 2024 first and second fractal series: x/2.5x :: 27/54 of 68 days: in the window of second fractal nonlinearity

In the US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Great 4 phase fractal series, there are current (4) operating self-ordering first and second fractal series of interest: series 1: A 1982 to 2025 13/31 of 32 years series series 2: A March 2020 19/39 of 45 to 46 month series series 3: A 27 Oct 2023 to 5 Aug 2024 55/139 day completed series and a series 4: A 5 August 2024 to 13 December 2024 26/54 of 68 day series. Today, 25 November was the 2x or 54th day of the 4th series cited above: the 27/68 day :: x/2.5x series. Tomorrow the asset-debt macroeconomic system will enter the period of second fractal nonlinearity , i.e., between 2x and 2.5x, or day 55 and day 68. (See 2005 website introduction) A logical completion of series 3 above would be a x/2.5x/2x/1.6x series which would complete series 1: 13/32 years and series 2: 19/45-46 months. The final 3rd and 4th fractal of series 3 of time length 3.6x would about 198 days. A 5 August 2024 interpolated fractal series of x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x composing the third and fourth fractal would equal 198 days. This would equate to a 5 August 27/68/67-68/40 day 4-phase fractal series. All global composite equities, cryptocurrencies, gold, and commodities will under similar devaluation during this time period. Below is the 5 Aug to 13 Dec 2024 27/54 of 68 day :: x/2.5x ACWI 100 + trillion dollar global equivalent proxy and its expected decay pathway.

THE 31 OCTOBER TO 10 TO 13 DECEMBER 2024 ACWI X/2.5X/2.5X :: 5/13/13 DAY 3-PHASE CRASH FRACTAL SERIES OR 4-PHASE X/2.5X/2X/1.5X :: 5/13/10/7 DAY CRASH FRACTAL SERIES

The 5 August ACWI’s first fractal has a length of 24 to 27 days, composed of respectively 5/10/11 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x and 6/13/10 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.6x 3-phase fractal series. The Nikkei favors the later series with a first fractal of 27 days with the European stock composites having 25 and 28 day first fractals (The US holiday Labor day not celebrated). Mathematically integrating and sharing 4 days between the 23 day and 27 day first fractals results in a 27/68 day :: x/2.5x ACWI first and second fractal series. An ACWI 11 Sept 6/12/12/10 day ::x/2x/2x/1.6x 4- phase fractal series ending on 31 October would be followed by a 5/13/13 day crash 3-phase fractal decay series ending 10 December 2024. (below)

Alternatively a 31 October 5/13/10/7 4 phase series would exactly complete a 5 August 27/68 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series (without the sharing of the 4 days) and end on Friday 13 December 2024. (below). This is the more likely of the two 31 October 2024 crash fractal pathways.

The STOXX 600 31 Oct to 5-6 December 2024 5/10 of 11-12/12 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase CRASH Fractal Decay Series

The universe operates by patterned self assembly of its smallest units on the smallest scale to the largest scale with mathematical fractal self-ordering and self-assembly of its subunits, units, and interactive connecting structures. With energy vibration, the smallest tetrarhedrons of planck side length 1.616 10-35 M may have an averaged bowing length of 1.618: the fibonacci ratio. Fibonnaci ratio curved (and ... with respect to anti leptons and antiquarks - anticurved and ... with respect to photons, reciprocating curved-anticurved) self-assembled adjacent tetrahedron groupings form the basis of the universe’s leptons, antileptons, quarks, antiquarks, transfer bosons and - gravity. By fractal matrix math and tetrahedron composite structure, the strange world of quantum mechanics is linked to relativity’s macroscopic gravity. The STOXX 600 does not observe the US (ACWI) Labor Day Holiday and has a 5 August 20241st fractal base length 'X' of 25 days. Because 5 Aug starts on the low and ends on the high it is twice counted fractally for a total of 26 days. The expected second fractal 2.5x length is 65 days ending 5-6 December 2024. The STOXX 600 Fractal Graph is shown below: note the alternating 4-phase and 3-phase Lammert Fractal series that compose the fractal subunits of the 5 August 26/65 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series. A 65-66 day crash nadir low is expected 5-6 December 2024.