Friday, January 10, 2025
Final Self-Assembly LAMMERT Fractal Growth: 10 January 2025: Final 27 October 2023 55/139/110 day :: x/2.5x/2x Lower High Equity Growth and 1982 13/32 Year Interpolated First and Second Fractal Lower High Equity Growth
On 9 Dec 2024 the global Equity composite ACWI reached an all high at 123.58. This day of peak valuation growth occurred exactly on a x/2.5x/1.618x 27 Oct 2023 :: 55/139/89 day fractal series. The SPX reached its maximum a trading day earlier, still very close to a third fractal Fibonacci time ratio of its 55 day base first fractal.
Like the Spanish empire of the 16th century, the American hegemony, is burdened with massive unrepayable debt and the accumulated interest on that debt. While short term US treasury rates are controlled somewhat by the Central Bank (and more so by the preceding low inflation environment secondary to 1990’s NAFTA and the 1999 China WTO agreements), long term US rates are controlled more by market forces. With American companies and ultimately consumers expected to pay increasing tariffs, the market is demanding higher interest US rates on long term instruments for anticipated inflation. After more than 760 days, uninversion of the 3 month minus ten year US note occurred on 13 December 2024 with a rising positive value of 0.32 on 8 January 2025.
The European manufacturing economy is crippled with ever high energy cost and the Chinese economy is imploding domestically with its internal property collapse and its dependence on exporting manufactured goods to a world of highly indebted consumers and defensive tariff-proposing governments.
A 1982 13/32 year 50/125 quarter :: x/2.5x nonlinear collapse in global equity valuations would abruptly change inflation expectations with a collapse in long US term interest rates.
This is expected to happen in this quarter and the next quarter.
The US hegemony is following an 1807 36/90/90/54 year x/2.5x/2.5x/2x Fractal pattern expected to end in 2074-75.
Nadirs occurred in 1842/43 and 1932 with a 90 year third fractal peak on 8 November 2021. The SPX is following an interpolated 1982 13/32/32/20 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5 4-phase Lammert self-ordered fractal series.
The valuation fall from the SPX’s 2024 high of 6100 could be as low as 900 or 85% if the SPX nadirs near its 32 year second fractal trend line.
Friday, December 13, 2024
27/67 OF 68 DAYS :: X/2.5X : THE 5 AUGUST 2024 TO 14 DECEMBER 2024 1ST AND TERMINAL 2ND CRASH FRACTAL SERIES
The 27 October 2023 to 5 August 2024 55/139 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series occurred with a nonlinear lower low gap between day 137 and day 138 and again between day 138 and 139, one day beyond the usual maximum 2.5x second fractal time limit with a reversal on day 139 ending near the high of the day.
It is possible a partial extra day could occur for the 5 August 2024 to 14 December 2024 27 day/currently 67 of 68 day first and 2nd fractal series.
For the next 30 years with the immutable central bank remedy of monetization of debt , maximum 2.5x length of second fractals … in the first use of money and debt creation arena, the equity market -and by the advantaged wealthy who can and will readily borrow – will occur and should be expected.
The elan of the December 2024 US Super Equity Bubble is divorced from the underlying realities of the citizens’ economy; manufacturing indicators down for 24 months, full-time jobs decreasing, high consumer debt load, and debt payment delinquencies increasing.
The 68th/69th day of the x/2.5x 27/68-69 day 5 August 2024 will be a nonlinear lower low. How low will the low be? Time will tell.
Is Tri-Continental Corp that dates before and survived 1919 the coal-mine canary? A lower low gap occurred on Friday the 13th.
On an optimistic note: perhaps Elon Musk’s unique abilities can be coordinated to target the production of enough thorium reactors to produce 50% of America’s energy requirements by 2035.
Monday, November 25, 2024
The Great Crash: The 5 August to 13 December 2024 first and second fractal series: x/2.5x :: 27/54 of 68 days: in the window of second fractal nonlinearity
In the US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Great 4 phase fractal series, there are current (4) operating self-ordering first and second fractal series of interest:
series 1: A 1982 to 2025 13/31 of 32 years series
series 2: A March 2020 19/39 of 45 to 46 month series
series 3: A 27 Oct 2023 to 5 Aug 2024 55/139 day completed series and a
series 4: A 5 August 2024 to 13 December 2024 26/54 of 68 day series.
Today, 25 November was the 2x or 54th day of the 4th series cited above: the 27/68 day :: x/2.5x series. Tomorrow the asset-debt macroeconomic system will enter the period of second fractal nonlinearity , i.e., between 2x and 2.5x, or day 55 and day 68. (See 2005 website introduction)
A logical completion of series 3 above would be a x/2.5x/2x/1.6x series which would complete series 1: 13/32 years and series 2: 19/45-46 months. The final 3rd and 4th fractal of series 3 of time length 3.6x would about 198 days. A 5 August 2024 interpolated fractal series of x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x composing the third and fourth fractal would equal 198 days. This would equate to a 5 August 27/68/67-68/40 day 4-phase fractal series.
All global composite equities, cryptocurrencies, gold, and commodities will under similar devaluation during this time period.
Below is the 5 Aug to 13 Dec 2024 27/54 of 68 day :: x/2.5x ACWI 100 + trillion dollar global equivalent proxy and its expected decay pathway.
Thursday, November 21, 2024
THE 31 OCTOBER TO 10 TO 13 DECEMBER 2024 ACWI X/2.5X/2.5X :: 5/13/13 DAY 3-PHASE CRASH FRACTAL SERIES OR 4-PHASE X/2.5X/2X/1.5X :: 5/13/10/7 DAY CRASH FRACTAL SERIES
The 5 August ACWI’s first fractal has a length of 24 to 27 days, composed of respectively 5/10/11 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x and 6/13/10 day :: x/2-2.5x/1.6x 3-phase fractal series. The Nikkei favors the later series with a first fractal of 27 days with the European stock composites having 25 and 28 day first fractals (The US holiday Labor day not celebrated).
Mathematically integrating and sharing 4 days between the 23 day and 27 day first fractals results in a 27/68 day :: x/2.5x ACWI first and second fractal series.
An ACWI 11 Sept 6/12/12/10 day ::x/2x/2x/1.6x 4- phase fractal series ending on 31 October would be followed by a 5/13/13 day crash 3-phase fractal decay series ending 10 December 2024. (below)
Alternatively a 31 October 5/13/10/7 4 phase series would exactly complete a 5 August 27/68 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series (without the sharing of the 4 days) and end on Friday 13 December 2024. (below). This is the more likely of the two 31 October 2024 crash fractal pathways.
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
The STOXX 600 31 Oct to 5-6 December 2024 5/10 of 11-12/12 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase CRASH Fractal Decay Series
The universe operates by patterned self assembly of its smallest units on the smallest scale to the largest scale with mathematical fractal self-ordering and self-assembly of its subunits, units, and interactive connecting structures.
With energy vibration, the smallest tetrarhedrons of planck side length 1.616 10-35 M may have an averaged bowing length of 1.618: the fibonacci ratio.
Fibonnaci ratio curved (and ... with respect to anti leptons and antiquarks - anticurved and ... with respect to photons, reciprocating curved-anticurved) self-assembled adjacent tetrahedron groupings form the basis of the universe’s leptons, antileptons, quarks, antiquarks, transfer bosons and - gravity. By fractal matrix math and tetrahedron composite structure, the strange world of quantum mechanics is linked to relativity’s macroscopic gravity.
The STOXX 600 does not observe the US (ACWI) Labor Day Holiday and has a 5 August 20241st fractal base length 'X' of 25 days. Because 5 Aug starts on the low and ends on the high it is twice counted fractally for a total of 26 days. The expected second fractal 2.5x length is 65 days ending 5-6 December 2024.
The STOXX 600 Fractal Graph is shown below: note the alternating 4-phase and 3-phase Lammert Fractal series that compose the fractal subunits of the 5 August 26/65 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series. A 65-66 day crash nadir low is expected 5-6 December 2024.
Saturday, November 9, 2024
The November 7 2024 Peak Global Equity Valuation and the 0.36 Fractal Proportionality Peak to Nadir Timing for the Re-calibration of Asset Overvaluation and Bad Debt Liquidation in 1929 verses 2024
The length of time of the fractal pathway from the asset-debt macroeconomy’s peak asset valuation to its nadir valuation in 1929 vice 2024 may well be 0.36 , which is the ratio of the length of the 13 year 1982 to 1994 interpolated first fractal to the length of the 36 year 1807 to 1842-43 first fractal of the US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year great fractal series ending 2074.
November 7 2024 marked the global equity peak for the 32 year second fractal of 1982’s 13 year interpolated first fractal just as 3 September 1929 represented the 90 year second fractal peak for the 1807 36 year first fractal.
The higher high gap for ACWI, the 100 + trillion dollar global ETF equity index on 7 November, 2024 has been observed only once before on 27 Sept 2024 and not even on the 90 year third fractal (of the 36/90/90/54 year series) inflation adjusted high average valuation on 8 November 2021.
By fractal count the time duration between the 3 Sept 1929 high and the 8 July 1932 low was 35 months. 35 months times 0.36 is 12.6 months which would put the crash asset low (by fractal time count) to be in late October- Novemder 2025.
Conservative US fiscal policy by the new conservative majority in the executive and legislative branches will likely oppose any further deficit spending - very much akin to the Hoover administration in 1929 to 1931 with deficit to GDP spending of -0.7, -0.8 and 0.6%, even as GDP fell by 10 % a year.
QE monetary policy by the Fed and central banks will benefit primarily financial institutions with their first use of money making even greater wealth disparities between those with assets and without assets.
Of all countries China is perhaps in the worst position because of their real estate gross overproduction, overvaluation, and gross over-ownership by their citizens as a primary wealth holding vehicle.
For the Shanghai Property index the current weekly fractal projection from the Jan 2024 low is 14/30 of 34 weeks. The daily series from the 11 September 2024 low is 9/21/8 of 24 days with an expected crash low on 1 December 2024. The normal fractal progression of a 14/34/28-34/21 week progression would place the nadir low in Oct-Nov 2025 the same as the 0.36 ratio as above. The 28-34/21 week 3rd and 4th fractals will not follow the standard grow and decay model but will follow a proportionality decay fractal model observable in the 1929 peak to nadir progression.
The ACWI correct fractal 5 Aug 2024 to 1 December 2024 24(+)/62 day :: x/2.5x progression is shown below and matches the Shanghai property index 1 December 2024 nadir date and the 5 week base decay fractal equivalent to 1929’s 13 week fractal decay base.
Sunday, October 27, 2024
A 5 NOVEMBER 2024 ELECTION DAY CRASH: THE 11 SEPT 6/12/15/10 DAY :: X/2X/2.5X/1.6X 4-PHASE LAMMERT CRASH FRACTAL SERIES
Within the US hegemonic 1807 great 4-phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5 fractal series of 36/90/90/54 years (with nadirs in 1842, 1932, and 2074) is the interpolated 1982 1st and 2nd fractal series of 13/32 years ending in approximately October 2025. A 14 week fractal series from 5 August to 5 November 2024 will form the incipient crash first fractal base for the weekly decay series ending in about Oct 2025.
Since 1982 the US GDP has expanded from 3.3 trillion to 29 trillion, a 9 fold increase, while US debt has expanded from 1.1 trillion to 35 trillion, a 32 fold increase. Excess dollars created by governmental fiscal policy and facilitated by central bank monetary policy have flowed preferentially into equities aided with 20 years of corporate-lobbied legislative buy-back laws while US middle class manufacturing jobs have been expatriated in support of corporate financial goals over national security goals.
US % GDP-deficit spending in 2020 was 14.66, the highest since WW2 with persistent 11.7, 5.3, 6.1, and 6.7 % deficit spending in subsequent years yielding a 4 year average of 2-3% annual GDP growth, touted to be the envy of G7 countries.
Below is current fractal model of the 5 August 2024 to the 5 November 2024 crash which consists of two daily fractal subseries. This will complete a 16/40 week 1st and 2nd fractal series starting 27 October 2023.
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