Sunday, October 20, 2024

The October Crash of 2024: Fractal self-similarities: 1987 and 2024 (21 Sept to 26-27 Oct 1987 and 11 Oct to 7 Nov 2024)

Equity valuations for Toyota, GM, Ford and Tesla represent basic daily, weekly, and monthly transactional weather vane markers aligned with the real needs of the population base of the pyramid of the asset-debt macroeconomic system. New net quality jobs creation or loss and ongoing debt load create the demand for vehicles, the companies' profits, and stock valuations. Trending vehicle manufacturer stock valuations are a reflection of the health of the net purchasing power of the population base. All manufacturers are following similar monthly, weekly, and daily fractal patterns since March of 2020, a time of Covid demand collapse and low equity valuations. Elon Musk, who has an 11K dollar Tesla EV set to roll out in the summer of 2025 and who is providing 75 million dollars to the Trump campaign, has a vested interest in having leverage against the mighty ICE’s oil and gas industries and vehicle manufacturing industries and in having political capital for the development of an ‘efficient’ massive electrical outlet infrastructure. If the democrats win, he then plays the ‘green’ card to support his tech and business goals Tesla’s operative self ordered monthly, weekly, and daily fractal patterns since March 2020 low are as follows: Monthly: 8/17/11 months :: x/2-2.5x/1.5x’ and 5/10/10 months :: x/2x/2x with the crash expected i the last week of Oct 2024.
Weeky: the weekly correlate of the 6 Jan 2023 5/10/10 month 3 phase fractal series is 17/40/39 of 40-42 weeks:. The terminal 40-42 weeks are composed of a 13/27 of 28-30 week 1st and 2nd fractal series:: x/2-2.5x . The terminal 27 of 28-30 weeks are composed of a 9/19 of 20-22 week 1st and 2nd fractal series x/2-2.5x. The 19 of 20 -22 weeks are composed of two weekly series: a 2/5/4 week :: x/2.5x/2x or 9 week fractal series and a 14 week: 5/7 of 8-10 fractal series: x/2x
Daily: The final 14 weeks starting 5 August are composed of a 5 week series: two subseries: 3/6/7/5 days and 2/4/5 days and a 10 week series: 7/14/currently 12 of 17/9-10 day series ending 6-7 November 2024.
The 1987 and the 2024 SPX 4 phase x/2-2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x crash fractal series’ similarities: 4/9/10/6-7 days verses 6/14/15/9-20 days, respectively. 1987 had a SPX 21 September to 26-27 October 4/9/10/6-7 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x 4 phase crash fractal sequence with the 19 Oct crash day representing day 10 of the 3rd fractal. This occurred relatively early in the incipient growth valuation phase of a 1982 to 2025 13/32 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series. As such the 26-27 Oct 1987 lows, technically representing double bottoms, were slightly higher lows than the 19 Oct 1987 crash low.
Because in November 2024 asset-debt macroeconomic system is now within a year of the terminal 2025 nadir of the 1982 13/32 year 1st and 2nd fractal series, the 2024 SPX 11 October to 7 November 2024 6/14/15/9-10 day 4-phase crash fractal sequence will likely have a lower low on 7 November 2024 (day 10 of the 4th fractal) than the 25 October 2024 crash low(day 15 of the 3rd fractal).
Precise 2.5X maximum time length 27 Oct 2023 base first fractal interpolated second fractals. 7 Nov 2024 is exactly a 2.5x time ratio to its 27 Oct 2023 to 13 February 2024first fractal less than 74 day base. (13 Feb 2024 starts on a low and ends on a high). The time frame of its second fractal from13 Feb is 184 days or precisely 2.5X. This matches the precise x/2.5x ratio of the interpolated 27 Oct 2023 to 17 Jan 2024 55 day first fractal and its 17 an 2024 to 5 August 2024 138 day second fractal. The nonlinear lower low daily gaps are the characteristic feature of the terminal portion of a second fractal. (See 2005 initial Economic Fractalist website page.)

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