Sunday, April 27, 2025

Not So Smart .. Occam’s Razor and 1982 to 2025 Terminal Fractal Growth: New Projected Initial First Fractal Decay Nadir: 13-19 June 2025.

The global Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System is undergoing a 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd Fractal nonlinear collapse which will end in late 2026. Even before the Hoover 2.0 tariffs and the resumption of college loan debt payments, average American consumers were tapped out and hard-working Chinese savers were already decimated by collapsing property valuations. The terminal portion of the 1994 SPX 33 year 2nd Fractal began on 27 October 2023 with a self assembly 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x near maximum growth fractal series peaking on the 136th day of the 3rd Fractal: 19 February 2025. The 139 day 2nd fractal shows characteristic 2nd fractal gapped lower low nonlinearity in the extreme terminal time area (2-2.5x)between days 137 and 138 and between days 138 and 139. The natural 4 phase evolution of the 27 Oct 2023 3-phase growth series: x/2.5x/2.5x series is x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x or 55/139/136/82-83 days. The graphs below shows the fractal relationship of the 3 February 2025 sequential 8/19/20 day and 7 April 2025 10/20-22/20-22 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x and the interpolated 80-84 day 19 February 2025 4-phase 5/11/13/8 day fractal decay series sequentially followed by a 7 April 10/20-22/20-22 day 3-phase fractal decay series ending 13 June to 19 June 2025.
With an 18 week 1st decay fractal, an 18/36-38/36-38/22 week 4 phase decay series would place the SPX 3rd fractal low valuation near the end of December 2026. The chances for the America hegemony to have a 32 year resurgence will be greatly improved following the 2026 midterms.

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