An Incipient 3-phase Crash Fractal Series 1929 Replay: 17 Feb 2026 11/26-27/26-27 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y ... Private Credit Collapse or War as the Precipitating Cause?

A 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x major credit/business fractal cycle is ending analogous to the ending of the 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x fractal cycle that peaked on 3 Sept 1929 and nadired in 1932. This 1982 cycle peaked on 25 Feb 2026 for the ACWI global equity composite. Was it the recent ongoing private credit collapse and asset valuation extreme overvaluation or was it the Israeli-Trump war shock that pivoted and inverted the asset valuation growth to asset valuation decay? Unfortunately, and on many levels, the effects of 'an uninitiated needless war' and against the most important of international UN charter regulations will be unknown. The 11 day first decay fractal began on 17 Feb 2026. The Israeli-Trump war was not initiated until 28 Feb 2026 Gold in USD is following the same 17 Feb 2026 3-phase fractal decay pathway as the SPX as the global composite equity ACWI. GBTC, the 5 day a week tradable proxy for crypto, is following a 5 Feb 2026 13/31-32/26-27 day :: y/2.5y/2y 3-phase fractal decay pathway whose 2nd and 3rd fractal decay nadirs align with gold in USD , the SPX, and ACWI.

With collapsing and private debt default denominated in dollars, assets must be sold to repay those debt obligations. From a fractal perspective, private debt default is the primary precipitate of the asset valuation crash, with the Israeli-Trump war a coincidental event causing a perverse escalation of oil and oil byproduct prices, and seriously causing inflation and impacting the world's producers and the world's consumer economy.