The 3 Feb 2025 Lammert 4-phase Fractal Incipient Growth and CRASH Decay Series

Add 1.6y or 13 days to the previous post's predicted SPX incipient 3 February 2025 3-phase y/2-2.5y/2.5y :: 8/19/20 day fractal decay series, and a 3 February 2025 4-phase y/2-2.5y/2.5y/1.6y :: 8/19/20/13 day fractal decay series is the newly predicted incipient fractal crash series. From Sunday March 30, there are 18 more trading days until an initial primary low valuation. It is the opinion of this observer, that the timing of this initial 4-phase crash fractal series is at the end a major asset-debt credit cycle and near the end of maximum SPX timed-based fractal growth, i.e. from 27 October 2023 to the peak SPX valuation on 19 February 2025, a 55/139/136 day :: {x/2.5x/(nearly 2.5x)} was completed. The interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year :: 1st and 2nd fractal series is expected to have a nonlinear ending with a nadir in 2025 or 2026. See below. The incipient crash will likely - with wide-spread market experts' post hoc ergo propter hoc logic - be attributed to the new administration's radical and chaotic policy changes with regard to long-standing alliances, new interest in colonialism, new tariffs, habeas corpus suspensions, non merit-based cabinet selections, use of DOJ in vendetta prosecutions, non-congressional authorized governmental and institutional budget and personnel cuts, et. al.

The previous 3 February 2025 3-phase Crash decay fractal is shown below:

The 3 February 4-phase growth and decay fractal series : 8/19/20/13 days with peak valuation on 19 February and in the 19 day second fractal is shown below.

Please review the previous posting for a primer on the time-based fractal self-assembly laws of global asset-debt system.

THE INCIPIENT 3-PHASE LAMMERT 2025 CRASH FRACTAL DECAY SERIES

The diversity in the respective evolutions of quantitative fractal valuation growth and decay of the European(STOXX 600), United States, Chinese including HangSeng, Japanese and Indian composite equities, which account for more than 85% percent of total global market equity share, allows the pinpointing the US composite equities primary incipient daily decay crash fractal series. Over the last several weeks, this web site has presented several different incipient primary fractal decay models similar to the 12/29/27 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal series in 1929 with the 3 Sept (DJIA) 1929 peak valuation contained in the 29 day 2nd fractal. The 1929 crash occurred near the terminal portion of an 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with nadir valuations in 1842-43 and 1932. 2nd fractals are characterized (as noted in the 2005 opening page) by nonlinear gapped lower lows. There was a 90% devaluation in the terminal portion of the 90 year 2nd fractal from its 1929 peak to its 1932 nadir valuation.

The 2025 crash will occur in an interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with lows in 1994 and a 2nd nonlinear low expected in 2025-2026 near the terminal portion of its 32-33 year 2nd fractal and after its 19 Feb 2025 high valuation. This 1982 interpolated fractal sequence is occurring in a 1807 36/90/90/54 year fractal series which is expected to end in 2074. Below is a primer review of the fractal time-based laws of the self ordering asset-debt macroeconomy’s growth and decay valuations of its composite assets. Credit expands, assets are produced and over-produced and overvalued and over-consumed; composite asset valuations reach a singular peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay, recessions occur, excess debt undergoes default and restructuring, and composite asset valuations reach a nadir. The cycle repeats itself. Empirically the cycles occur in 2 mathematical time- ordered and self-organizing fractal series manners: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped lower lows between the 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped lower lows can be seen in weekly units between 1929 and 1932 of the US 90 year 2nd fractal, before the 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low and can be expected within last few months of the 32-33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.) With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with intervening valuation above the connecting nadir trend-line. The recent incipient crash fractal series decay models provided over the last several week have all lacked the requirements defining fractal groupings as described above. The final SPX growth series started on 27 October 2023 and was a 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth series peaking on 19 February 2025 akin to 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation.

The incipient crash 3-phase fractal decay series for the SPX is a 3 February 8/19/12 of 20 day :: y/2-2.5y/2.5y fractal decay series. Like 1929 the peak valuation on 19 February 2025 is contained in the (19 day) 2nd fractal. Trend lines defining fractal groupings are consistent with this model.

A FRIDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2025 5/13/9 OF 13 DAY 3-PHASE :: Y/2.5Y/2.5Y FRACTAL DECAY SERIES AS THE INITIAL DAILY CRASH 1ST FRACTAL

All composite global equities suggest a major crash during the next 4 trading days. A review of the SPX 55/139/136 day fractal growth series spanning the 27 October 2023 low to the 19 February 2025 peak valuation with the characteristic 139 day 2nd fractal terminal gapped nonlinear lower low valuations ending in the 5 Aug 2024 nadir suggests yet another quantitative 3-phase incipient daily decay pattern. A 19 Feb 2025 peak valuation 5/11/9 of 13 day decay fractal series pattern or alternatively a 14 Feb 5/13/13 day decay fractal series sets 27 or 29 days as the 1st decay fractal equally 6-7 weeks for a 6-7/12-15/10-14 weekly decay fractal series ending in Sept 2025 with a possible lower low in 2026.

The SPX 12 February 2025 9/23/18-23 day CRASH 3-Phase y/2.5y/2-2.5y Fractal Decay Series

The asset-debt macroeconomic system operates in a deterministic self-ordering self-assembly fashion, following quantitative time based elegantly-simple fractal progression.

The 1929 DJIA crash was self-organized a 3-phase 12/29/27 day :: time-based y/2-2.5y/2-2.5 fractal series. After a 23 October 2023 self assembly near maximum growth of 55/139/136 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x; the 1st decay fractal of 9 days occurred in an interpolated fashion in the terminal portion of the a self-ordering 13 January 5/11/10/7 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series, which contained the 136 day 3rd fractal SPX high valuation on 19 Feb 2025. The 2025 SPX CRASH y/2.5y/2-2.5y 3-phase decay series started on 12 Feb 2025 and is composed of 9/23/18-23 days. The 1st 9 day fractal is composed of a 2/5/4 day fractal sub-series. The 23 day 2nd fractal is composed of two fractal sub-series a 2/5/4/3 day or 11 day sub-series and a 13 day 3/6/6 day sub-series. The SPX Crash is part of a global crash of asset overvaluation, asset over-supply, and excessive corporate, governmental, and personal debt related to respectively tax revenues, sustainable corporate profits, falling wages and jobs relative to consumer cost.

19 Feb 2025 SPX Peak Valuation and the Initial 2025 Global Equity CRASH Fractal Series Model

The US asset-debt macroeconomic hegemony's composite equity class peaked in November 2021 completing a x/2.5x/2.5x 1807, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractal 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum peak valuation. What propelled it to its new 27 October 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x SPX 19 Feb 2025 and 21 Feb 2025 peak and secondary valuation - about 30% higher than the Nov 2021 peak?

The answer is US federal deficit to GDP % spending which in 2020 was nearly 14.7% and greater than that % in 1942, America's first year in WW2. Deficit spending was 11.7% in 2021 and has continued to be historically high at 5.3 to 6.3% in subsequent years. Even frozen with the CR at last year's level, recession will place the % at a higher level than 2024. The current fractal decay model takes in consideration the fractal evolution of the HangSeng, Shanghai, European, and Nikkei markets.

Within this model a prior interpolated Feb 19 2025 3/8/8 day decay series model predicted and posted on 28 Feb 2025 is observable. This prior model that does not meet the underlying trend line requirement that defines fractals. See old model below:

The Wilshire has already lost over 5 trillion of its worth since its Feb 2025 peak. The current 4 phase SPX decay fractal series model of 7/14 of 16-17/17/11 days :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y matches the weekly Wilshire 4 phase decay series shown below. Decay starts on week 29(or technically week 30 noting that the first week of 5 August 2024 was upgoing) of the 3rd growth fractal of a 13-/30/30 week :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3- phase fractal growth series. A 2/3 of 4/4/3 week :: y/2y/2y/1.5y 4-phase decay fractal is observable. Note that the 27 Oct 2023 to 5 Aug 2024 trend line has been breached and already there is a nonlinear gapped lower low ON A WEEKLY chart. The gapped lower low so early in the fractal series and on a weekly time unit basis portends severe devaluation near term.

As a reminder, the interpolated primary series is a 1982 13/32-33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series.

The Chinese Property Bubble nonlinear collapse The Chinese property market has about 100% excess capacity; at the height of the 2008 US housing bubble there was about a 5% US excess capacity. The Shanghai property index (and HangSeng and Shanghai Composite) have paralleled the SPX since Oct 2023 in a declining 3 phase weekly fractal growth progression of 13+/34/27 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x concluding a perfect declining growth fractal series and at the fractal timing for 4th fractal 1.5x devaluation. The 27 week 3rd fractal growth was propelled by a huge injection of CCP credit/capital into the banking system. This was a you-tube that was posted on 14 March 2025; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrEULvhIw_s

THE US SPX: FRACTAL DECAY BEGINS IN TERMINAL FRACTAL GROWTH: A SHARED 7-DAY 12 TO 24 FEBRUARY END GROWTH AND INCIPIENT DECAY FRACTAL SERIES.

The US Hegemonic Asset-Debt System is following a 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-6x self-assembly 4-phase growth and decay fractal series. Credit expands, assets are produced and over-produced and overvalued and over-consumed; composite asset valuations reach a peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay, recessions occur, excess debt undergoes default and restructuring, and composite asset valuations reach a nadir. The cycle repeats itself. Empirically the cycles occur in 2 mathematical time-ordered and self-organizing fractal series manners: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped lower lows between the 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped lower lows can be seen in weekly units between 1929 and 1932 of the US 90 year 2nd fractal, before the 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low and can be expected within last few months of the 32-33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.) With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series with is determined by its peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line. For 1807 36/90/90/54 year fractal series, nadirs occurred in 1807, 1842-43, and July 1932 defining the 1st and 2nd fractals with a 3rd fractal 90 year peak valuation in Nov 2021. World War 2 and post Breton Woods American dominant manufacturing growth and dominant currency disrupted equity composite nadir valuations from 1932 to 1982 with a resultant 11/21/21 year :: approximate x/2x/2x 3-phase fractal growth series.

To complete the 1807 36/90/90/54 year US 4-phase fractal series, an interpolated 1982 13/32-33/32-33/20 year x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-6x 4-phase fractal series is expected. Credit growth from 1982 has been propelled by cascadingly lower US fed fund interest rates, a 2000 speculative internet bubble and a 2008 housing bubble, post event recession corporate and Covid citizen bailouts, massive governmental deficit spending and credit/money growth accommodation from the US central bank which has allowed low US unemployment levels to purchase foreign goods made with 10-25% of US labor cost. The massive citizen Covid bailout propelled the SPX to its 90 year 3rd fractal high in Nov 2021 which was contained within a March 2020 8+/24/14 :: x/2.5x/1.6x 3 phase fractal growth series followed by a 27 Oct 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum peak valuation growth fractal series The last 7 days of the 138 day 3rd fractal contains the SPX 19 Feb 2025 peak valuation which forms a 7 day base for a 7/18/18 day 3-phase crash decay fractal series.

The Great 2025 Global Equity Crash: Ten Year Notes and Equity Torsades de Points completed 14 February 2025

It is hypothesis of this website that easily tradable assets, both nondebt and debt entities, grow and decay in an optimal and deterministic time-based self-assembly fractal manner; either in a three phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/1.5 to 2.5x or in a four phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. Unraveling of the US hegemony started in the 1990's by career US politicians, lobbied and supported by US corporations who favored greater profits with foreign-based manufacturing and inexpensive labor. The US hegemony is following a 4 phase 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series for equities and commodities after having an incipient 18 year fractal base from 1790 to 1807. Since 1982 US equities are following an interpolated 13/32 of 32-33/32-33/20 year four phase fractal series ending about 2054 . In this four phase series expected is a great 32-33 year second fractal crash occurring in 2025-2026. Since 2000 2-3 % average GDP annual growth has been sustained by an average of 5 % GDP-deficit spending with the US central bank, US citizens and institutions, and the world subsidizing US debt. Until 2020, low-labor cost imported manufactured goods exchanged for US farm goods, US energy, and US debt maintained a low inflationary environment. With the increasing cost of foreign labor - and more recently the US adopting an isolationist posture, the abrupt ice-cold alienation of former allies, and the threatened and real imposition of new tariffs - both support of US debt growth from other than the US sources and the expectation of a low inflationary environment will qua;itatively wither. A March 2020 3-phase 8+/24/14 month :: x/2.5x/1.6x fractal growth series ended on 27 October 2023. On February 14 2025 a new high for ACWI, the 115 trillion dollar ETF proxy, was observed with a tiny blow-off gap opening at the beginning of the trading day with an end trading valuation near the low of the day (see the ten day 15-minute unit ACWI chart at the bottom of the page.) : 14 February completed nested fractal growth series: an 8 December 2024 7/14/18/11 day :: x/2x/2.5x/1.5x inverse growth fractal series: a 5/11/10 day a/2-2.5x/2x growth fractal series: a 5 Aug 2024 24/53/59 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series: and a 27 Oct 2023 55/139/134 day :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series. See below.

TNX, the US Ten Year Note interest rate came within 0.2 % of its 23 week third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline. It is possible for TNX to touch the third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline on Tuesday or Wed, 18 or 19 February 2025 with a final 2/5/4-5 day growth fractal of ACWI completing a 5/11/11-12 day fractal series rather than the current 5/11/10 day series.

Hard Landing Ahead: The 5 August 2024 Final Fractal Growth: 24/53/49 of 49-52 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x

The 2025 Smoot-Hawley 2.0 new tariffs and announced counter tariffs are coming at the precise time of maximum fractal global peak or secondary peak equity valuation with 24 months of declining manufacturing data and re-inversion of long term debt minus short term debt yields after 2 years of steep inversion, greater than 1929.

Smoot-Hawley 2.0 is the last ditch populist response to the 1992 Perot 'Giant Sucking Sound' of American manufacturing jobs going south, west and north. The nationalistic Chinese government has consistently fostered growth of manufacturing jobs for Chinese workers in contrast to the US government who has supported election-donor US corporations (and individuals), the latter primarily interested in profit alone. Both US entities were not focused in a national strategy to maintain and grow America's manufacturing might. The US government has deficit spent at an annual average rate of greater than 5-7% of GDP to maintain a 2.5% GDP growth, while the US central bank printed dollars and sold debt to accommodate the US's growing trade deficits and an enlarging US service-based economy. The container-ship imports were primarily purchased by two American family workers vice one worker. With the debt load of US younger workers and the cost of housing with current interest rates, the average age of US home buyers is now 56. After 30 years of establishing international supply chains and a linked global macroeconomy, the decoupling effect of US tariffs and the counter tariffs will result in a much greater global effect than the early 1930's. With the ongoing Chinese housing bubble still undergoing collapse and a probable further decline in Chinese domestic consumption, a very hard landing global recession is coming.

Final Self-Assembly LAMMERT Fractal Growth: 10 January 2025: Final 27 October 2023 55/139/110 day :: x/2.5x/2x Lower High Equity Growth and 1982 13/32 Year Interpolated First and Second Fractal Lower High Equity Growth

On 9 Dec 2024 the global Equity composite ACWI reached an all high at 123.58. This day of peak valuation growth occurred exactly on a x/2.5x/1.618x 27 Oct 2023 :: 55/139/89 day fractal series. The SPX reached its maximum a trading day earlier, still very close to a third fractal Fibonacci time ratio of its 55 day base first fractal.

Like the Spanish empire of the 16th century, the American hegemony, is burdened with massive unrepayable debt and the accumulated interest on that debt. While short term US treasury rates are controlled somewhat by the Central Bank (and more so by the preceding low inflation environment secondary to 1990’s NAFTA and the 1999 China WTO agreements), long term US rates are controlled more by market forces. With American companies and ultimately consumers expected to pay increasing tariffs, the market is demanding higher interest US rates on long term instruments for anticipated inflation. After more than 760 days, uninversion of the 3 month minus ten year US note occurred on 13 December 2024 with a rising positive value of 0.32 on 8 January 2025. The European manufacturing economy is crippled with ever high energy cost and the Chinese economy is imploding domestically with its internal property collapse and its dependence on exporting manufactured goods to a world of highly indebted consumers and defensive tariff-proposing governments. A 1982 13/32 year 50/125 quarter :: x/2.5x nonlinear collapse in global equity valuations would abruptly change inflation expectations with a collapse in long US term interest rates. This is expected to happen in this quarter and the next quarter. The US hegemony is following an 1807 36/90/90/54 year x/2.5x/2.5x/2x Fractal pattern expected to end in 2074-75. Nadirs occurred in 1842/43 and 1932 with a 90 year third fractal peak on 8 November 2021. The SPX is following an interpolated 1982 13/32/32/20 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5 4-phase Lammert self-ordered fractal series. The valuation fall from the SPX’s 2024 high of 6100 could be as low as 900 or 85% if the SPX nadirs near its 32 year second fractal trend line.