The Deterministic Self-ordering Fractal Growth Pathway to the 11 Aug 2025 Global Equity Peak Valuation and the Crash Fractal Pathway to the Initial 10 Sept 2025 Crash Nadir Low

On 3 Sept 1929, the DJIA average reached a peak valuation of 381.17. Ninety-six years later (97 by fractal count) on 23 July 2025, the DJIA reached a peak valuation of 45073.63, about 118 times the previous century’s earlier peak valuation. The average US house in 1929 was about 6000 US dollars and in 2025 about 515000, a comparable 85.5 times fold increase in valuation. The DJIA valuation peak in 1929 was near the close of a US 1807 to 1932 :: 36/90 year first and second fractal series … and the peak valuation in 2025 near the close of a US 1982 to 2026 13/33 year first and second fractal interpolated series, part of the greater US 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x.2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series with a 90 year third fractal peak in Nov 2021, propelled yet higher in valuation in 2024 and 2025 by unprecedented US peacetime deficit to GDP Covid spending of about 15% and 12%, respectively, in 2020 and 2021. Global equity peak valuation, represented by ACWI, which includes Nvidia, the latter now the #1 market cap company at 4.46 trillion, about 15% higher than #2 Microsoft, reached an intraday peak valuation (similar to Nvidia’s ending daily close) on 8 August 2025 with an expected final minutely and hourly gapped peak blow-off valuation on 11 August 2025 for both ACWI and Nvidia. Going into a population-overdebt-burdened-related, asset-highest-ever-valuation-related, highest-consumer-product-cost(except vehicle fuel), tariff-and-US consumer-paid-for-related … recession … Nvidia’s PE ratio is currently about 59 and Microsoft’s 38, both perfectly valued on a daily basis, but grossly overvalued in the long term credit cycle basis. From the 27 Oct 2023 low the Global Equity ACWI propelled by historical deficit to GDP annual credit/money expansion followed a 3 phase x/2.5x/2.5x maximum valuation growth fractal progression of 55/139/136 days followed by a 4 phase 5/13/11/7 day decay fractal series ending 7 April 2025. Since 7 April 2025, valuation growth has occurred in two 3-phase fractal series: a 10/25/20 day :: x/2.5x/2x series ending 23 June 2025. And from this 23 June relative nadir a 7/15/14 of 15 day 3-phase growth fractal series has taken the ACWI to a double top peak valuation on 8 August 2025. The 2nd 15 day 2nd fractal subseries is a curvilinear blow-off of 4/8/5 days :: x/2x/1.5x’. The final 14 of 15 day 3rd fractal subseries was self-assembled into a 3/7/6 of 7 day fractal subseries with a characteristic nonlinear lower low gap between day 6 and 7 of the 7 day 2nd subfractal and starting 1 Aug 2025 a self-ordered 6 day growth series to 8 August ensued. A final 7 day 3rd subfractal blow-off peak valuation on 11 August 2025 will result in a 23 June 2025 to 11 August 7/15/15 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase growth final blow-off fractal series. From Friday 1 August 2025 ACWI has self-ordered into a 6/15/15 hour 3 phase growth series and is followed by a self-assembly 3/7/1 of 5-7 hour blow-off series. A gap higher at the opening on 11 August 2025 with a possible close near the low of the day would confirm this final self-assembly peak series. From the 11 August peak a 4/8/8/5 day 4-phase fractal decay series would take the ACWI to a 10 September 2025 initial crash nadir congruent with a Chinese property crash represented by the Shanghai property index of a April 2025 nadir 4 phase fractal series of 16/36/36-37/22-23 days. Fractal Charts to follow …

25 July 2025 was the 1982 13/32 of 33 year :: x/2.5x Global Equity Peak Valuation ... Now the Initial Nonlinear Crash with an Interim Nadir on 4 Sept 2025 ...

The 60 trillion dollar equivalent Chinese Property market, the total value of crypto proxies, AI proxies, and the ACWI Global index have all reached their maximum valuations for this global macroeconomic asset-debt credit cycle starting in 1982. After the nonlinear crash devaluation of all asset class valuations(except long term debt instruments), the US central bank will rapidly lower interest rates, causing one final lower lower high valuation with a final collapse in Sept to November of 2026. ACWI peak valuation 25 July 2025 with expected nadir 4 Sept 2025.

Chinese Property Fractal Monthly and Daily Decay:

Bitcoin Proxy GBTC Monthly and Daily:

From the 7 April 2025 nadir valuation,the 26 July 2025 Current Lammert Fractal Self-0rdering Observed Progression, the predicted progression, the predicted peak valuation August 2025 date and the predicted Oct 2025 crash valuation low date.

The Asset-Debt macroeconomic grows and decays it assets' valuation in a self-assembly well defined fractal manner. From the 1807 low the US hegemony macroeconomic asset-debt system has self-ordered the growth and decay of its asset valuations in a time ordered fractal manner of x/2.5x/2.5x with nadirs in 1842-43 and 1932 and a peak valuation in Nov 2021 following a 36/90/90 year fractal proportionality. The conclusion of a x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase Lammert fractal series would terminate in 2074-2077. Valuation growth has extended beyond the Nov 2021 90 year 2.5x 3rd fractal peak because of the historical debt-GDP % government peacetime spending secondary to Covid. After a 32 year crash low in October 2025, an interpolated 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x US fractal series is expected to conclude in 2026 with 1987-like 1-2 day collapse (%-wise worse than 1987) in asset valuation.

Projected Lammert Fractal Growth and Decay from the ACWI Global Equity ETF 7 April 2025 Nadir

After the 15 July 2025 ACWI Global Equity Valuation Peak or Secondary High Peak, A Crash Devaluation Will Occur Over 18 trading days … The Fractal Progression of a US Real Estate Composite Proxy: VNQ …

The Buffet indicator, total equity market cap to GNP, shows equity valuations are at a historical bubble high at about 208%. This is especially remarkable because of the relatively high ten year US Note interest yields. In April the last reported S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index was 329.608, also a historical high valuation, in spite of relatively high mortgage rates . From its 7 April 2025 nadir valuation, ACWI, the global equity composite proxy, is following a 10/25/20 day :: x/2.5x/2x 3-phase fractal series followed by a 3/8/7 day x/2.5x/2.5x final blow-off ending with a targeted all-time peak (or secondary peak to the current 10 July peak) valuation on 15 July 2025.

From this 15 July 2025 historical global peak or secondary peak valuation, a historical initial crash devaluation will occur over 18 trading days completing a 19 February 2025 prior high 34 day (x) (5/13/12/7day) / /7 April 68 day 15 July 2025 peak (2x) and 85 day 2.5x nadir 34/85 day 1st and 2nd fractal series.

VNQ, a proxy for composite US real estate valuation, shows two series of 3-phase fractal series progressions from the March 2020 low: a 8+/24/14 months :: x/2.5x/1.5x series, followed by a 7/16 of 17/14-17 month :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x series.

On a weekly basis the second 3-phase series 7/16 of 17/14-17 month is a 29//(13/28/28 of 32 )//58-71 week :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x fractal decay series ending near the US 2026 midterm elections.

Fractally, 16 July 2025 is the 1982 13/32 of 33 year ACWI global blow-off (high and lower high) peak valuation for global equities, crypto's, the Bank of Shanghai, and the Shanghai property index.

It’s only math after all. And the Chinese property Index tells it all for a (global) deflationary collapse … For the ACWI from the 7 April 2025 low:10/25/20 days :: X/2.5x/2x and 3/8/8 days:: x/2.5x/2.5x, For Bitcoin’s proxy: GBTC from the 2015 low: 14/28(6/12/12) quarters :: x/2x and from the Dec 2023 low 25/62/50 weeks x/2.5x/2x … For the Bank of Shanghai from the Dec 2023 low: 28/56 weeks :: x/2x … And for the Shanghai property index from the April 2024 low: 16/37/18 days…

The Nikkei Yearly, Monthly, and Daily Fractal Series

The US 1982 13/33 year fractal cycle ending in 2026 is conjoined with the Nikkei's fractal growth which began from post WW2 humble beginnings in 1949 to a 1989/1990 behemoth peak valuation along with Japanese real estate, far above the inflation adjusted recent 2024-2025 peak valuations. Japan's unique six sigma error manufacturing, has created high quality items which have resulted in an about neutral import/export trade balance over 40 years. Number 45-47 president's tariffs on Japanese goods represent an act-of-war accelerant to an inevitable 2026 global economic deflationary collapse. The SPX after a 7 April 10/25/19-20 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal series, extended its growth valuation in a 2/5/5 day manner peaking on 3 July 2025. The 5/13/12/7 day 4-phase decay fractal series from the 19 Feb 2025 previous peak valuation concluded a 27 Oct 2023 4/8/9 month fractal series, part of a 4/6/9/6 month fractal series ending in September 2025. The Nikkei from its 1949 incipient base fractal of 19 years is following a 19/42/37-42/25-27 year series ending synchronistically with the US 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase hegemonic fractal series.

A Nikkei 2008 4/8/9 year 19 year crash nadir in Sept-Oct 2026 will be followed by a 18-23 year peak valuation supported by global use of MMT expansion of individual sovereign currency providing support for global retirees and causing historical, albeit, measured inflation. The monthly Nikkei fractal projections from the March 2020 Covid nadir low is shown below.

The daily projections from the 7 April 2025 low in completing the 24 month second fractal of a terminal 11/24/14-15 month :: x/2-2.5x/1.5-1,6xi fractal series is shown below.

Lammert Fractal Self-Similarities of Near Maximal Valuation Fractal Growth, Peak Valuation, and Subsequent Fractal Decay

The above daily SPX chart is from midday trading on 27 June 2025 where the SPX gapped to an opening new high valuation exceeding the previous 19 Feb 2025 high, completing a 10/25/24 day x/2.5x/2.5x near maximum growth fractal series. the terminal 4th subfractal of 7 days of the 5/11/10/7 days series would form the base for a 7/15-18/15-17/11 day decay fractal series similar to the 5/13/12/7 days 4-phase decay series from the 19 Feb 2025 previous peak valuation. From The 27 October 2023 SPX low the current fractal model is 4/8/9/3 of 6 months. The above daily 4-phase decay fractal series will complete the 6 month 4th fractal. The fractal model for the Nikkei from its Dec 2022 low is 11/21 of 24/13-14 months following a self similar x/2-2.5x/1.5x' series of March 2020 low of 8/17/11 months. Interestingly GBTC, Bitcoin's proxy, is following the Nikkei latter fractal pathway. The global macroecomomy is, de facto, following collaborative central bank MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, dynamics where central banks can create money and credit via digital computerized manipulation. This activity in the remote past would have been considered fraud, but no more. After a moderate to severe recession with real personal bankruptcies, caused by excessive debt load of private citizens, who, unlike central banks and their first credit user-partners cannot manipulate/create/borrow money, the system will reboot itself with ever higher inflation and wealth disparity.

The Crash 24 June 2025 Nadir : A 23 Oct 2023 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x :: 55/139/135/87 day 4-Phase ACWI Terminal Growth and Initial Crash Fractal Sequence.

An ACWI total global equity 7 April 2025 3 phase fractal series 10/25/12 of 20 days :: x/2.5x/2x completes the 27 October 2023 55/139/135/87 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x 4-phase fractal series.

The 135 day 3rd fractal peak for ACWI occurred on 18 Feb 2025 initiating the 87 day :: 1.6x 4th fractal with decay fractal series of a 3-phase of 4/8/6 days :: x/2.5x/1.5x followed by a 3/7/8/5 day 4-phase fractal series :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x reaching an initial nadir on 7 April 2025, or day 35 from the 18 February 2025 peak. The 7 April 2025 10/25/20 day fractal series, contributing 53 days to the 87 day 4th fractal contains both the 2025 peak valuation blow-off at 1256.575 on day 12, namely 10 June 2025 of the 20 day 3rd fractal and will proceed to include the nonlinear lower low 3rd fractal day 20 crash nadir on 24 June 2025.

A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Self-Assembly Lammert Fractal Growth and Decay of Valuations of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x and 1982 13/32 of 33/32-33/20 years x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself. On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above. Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the ACWI/SPX 27 October 2023 55/139/135-136 day (SPX-ACWI respectively) :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 18/19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 20 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series. With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.

Lammert Fractals: 27 October 2023 to 13-16 June 2025: ACWI: The Total Global Equity Index 4-phase 55/139/135/82-83 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Terminal Growth and Crash Fractal Series

The final 4-phase fractal series for the world equity index ACWI and completing a 4-phase 27 Oct 2023 to 13-16 June 2025 55/139/135/82-83 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series started on 6 May 2025 after a 3/8/8/5 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x 4-phase growth and decay fractal series starting from the nadir on 7 April 2025. On 6 May 2025 ACWI self-assembled in a 3-phase 5/10/10 day :: x/2x/2x blow-off gap higher valuation fashion with 6 June 2025, the 10th day of the 3rd fractal, reaching a high of 126.00, higher than the 18 Feb 2025 peak of about 124.3. The 6 May 2025 fractal series is expected to terminate nonlinearly with a nadir on 13 -16 June 2025, completing a 4-phase 5/10/10/6-7 day :: x/2x/2x/1.5x(1.5x')fractal series.

THE 3 FEBRUARY 2025 SPX PRIMARY CRASH FRACTAL SEQUENCE

The incipient crash fractal sequence of the 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series which includes the terminal 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x 19 February 2025 SPX peak valuation is a 3 February 14/32/26-32/20 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x’-2.5x’/1.5x’ 4-phase Lammert Fractal Series.

The Case for a Mathematical Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System: 27 October 2023 to 17 June 2025: A 55/139/136/83 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase Lammert Fractal Series

The Case for a Self-Assembly Mathematical Asset-Debt System The purpose of this website for the last 20 years has been to demonstrate that the asset-debt macroeconomic system is self-ordered by deterministic elegantly simple mathematical laws of time-based fractal growth and decay of its easily tradable assets. This fractal self assembly process is included as a primer at the end of the post.

The 1807 US hegemony commodity and equity valuations are self-ordered in a series of mostly nadirs and a 3rd fractal peak in a 4-phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 year fractal series with lows in 1807/1842-43/1932, a projected low in 2074, and a 90 year 3rd Fractal peak in November 2021. The 2020 US government 3.13 trillion dollar deficit spending that combated Covid represented 14.7 % deficit to GDP spending which was followed by a 2.78 trillion deficit spending or a 11.7% deficit to GDP spending in 2021. This historically high peacetime deficit spending (by comparison 1942 was 12.2%) resulted in a 90 year US 3rd fractal composite equity high in Nov 2021 and a subsequent higher high on 19 Feb 2025.. After an interim low on 27 October 2023, the SPX has followed a 3-phase maximum growth series of 55/139/136 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x with a peak valuation on 19 February 2025 and a secondary lower high peak on day 138 or 2.5x on 21 February 2025. If the SPX follows a similar fractal pattern as the US 1807 4-phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal pattern ending in 2074, the 27 Oct 2023 SPX pattern will end with a interim low on 17 June 2025 or 55/139/136/83 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x.

This is an interim low of a interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series ending in 2026.

The 139 day 2nd fractal in yellow below shows the characteristic 2nd nonlinear gapped lower lows between days 137 and 138 and between days 138 and 139 of its terminal portion just as described 20 years ago in the main page of the Economic Fractalist.

The 3rd (orange) and 4th(red) fractals are shown in more detail below. After a 3-phase 5 August 2024 18+/48/47 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x growth fractal series, the final blow-off for the SPX occurred in two sequential smaller 3-phase series: a 3/8/6 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal growth series and a final 3/6/5 day :: x/2x/1.6x series ending with a peak valuation on 19 February 2025.

The 4th fractal is shown below is a composite of 4 sequential fractal series: One: a 19 February 5/13/11/7 day 4-phase decay fractal series with an 11 day interim counter trend growth 3rd fractal and a 7 day 4th decay fractal with gapped lower low nonlinearity between days 4 and 5 and 5 and 6 ending with a nadir on day 7 and 7 April. Two and Three are counter-trend growth series of 2/4/4/3 days and 3/6/8 days ending on 9 May 2025. Four is expected to be similar to the 19 February 2025 4 phase series: a 9 May 4/10/10/6 days series with counter trend growth on the 3rd 10 day fractal and a crash 6 day 4th fractal ending 17 June 2024. See below.

Two interpolated three phase y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y fractal decay series are shown below:

A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Fractal Growth and Decay of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years and 1982 13/32 of 33/32/-33/20 years) credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself. On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above. Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 14-15 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series. With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.

AN ELEGANTLY SIMPLE 3 FEBRUARY 2025 FRACTAL REPLAY OF 1929?

The primary fractal decay series in August 1929 was a 12/29/27 day :: 3-phase x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series with a 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation on the 6th day of the 29 day 2nd fractal. (Below the 1929 12/29/27 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase Lammert decay series)

It is possible that a similar x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x decay series started on 3 February 2025 with the peak SPX valuation on 19 February 2025, day 12 of the 14 day 1st Fractal. The analogous 1929 3-phase fractal decay series is 14/32/31-33 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x.

The global macroeconomy is near the end of a 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x asset-debt credit (fractal) cycle ending in 2026. This is analogous to the 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x Asset Debt 1st and 2nd fractal cycle with a DJIA peak on 3 September 1929 and final nadir on 8 July 1932. On a long term scale the 1842-43 90 year 1929 to 1932 peak to nadir DJIA 90% devaluation has the characteristics of a 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse. The current 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x cycle with 32 of 33 years of its 2nd fractal completed and its ongoing 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse is interpolated within the larger US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal series ending in 2074 – 2077 with the 1932 90 year 3rd fractal peaking on 8 November 2021. (see primer below)

After the 2026 nadir, the follwing 33 years will be characterized by further US financialization of debt, new money, and new credit creation and development of new financial instruments such as 50 year loans. While the current administration’s policies will promote a departure from the dollar to other possible exchange items, America’s prior defense spending, role as a nuclear superpower, and AI and robotics capabilities, will likely carry the fraying US hegemony for another two or three decades.  The peak for the SPX of the 1982 13/33 year cycle occurred on 19 Feb 2025 with the final lower high on 21 February or day 138 of a 27 October 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum 3-phase growth series.

A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Fractal Growth and Decay of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years and 1982 13/32 of 33/32/-33/20 years) credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself. On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above. Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 14-15 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series. With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.

The SPX 27 October 2023 to 19 Feb 2025 Final Peak Valuation Growth: x/2.5x/2.5x :: 55/139/136 days; The Interpolated 12 Feb 2025 11/28/28/16-18 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-Phase Decay/Decay/Reflexic Growth/ Crash Decay Fractal Series Ending 6-10 June 2025

The global macroeconomy is near the end of a 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x asset-debt credit (fractal) cycle ending in 2026. This is analogous to the 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x Asset Debt 1st and 2nd fractal cycle with a DJIA peak on 3 September 1929 and final nadir on 8 July 1932. On a long term scale the 1842-43 90 year 1929 to 1932 peak to nadir DJIA 90% devaluation has the characteristics of a 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse. The current 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x cycle with 32 of 33 years of its 2nd fractal completed and its ongoing 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse is interpolated within the larger US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal series ending in 2074 - 2077 with the 1932 90 year 3rd fractal peaking on 8 November 2021. (see primer below) After the 2026 nadir, the follwing 33 years will be characterized by further US financialization of debt, new money, and new credit creation and development of new financial instruments such as 50 year loans. While the current administration's policies will promote a departure from the dollar to other possible exchange items, America's prior defense spending, role as a nuclear superpower, and AI and robotics capabilities, will likely carry the fraying US hegemony for another two or three decades. The peak for the SPX of the 1982 13/33 year cycle occurred on 19 Feb 2025 with the final lower high on 21 February or day 138 of a 27 October 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum 3-phase growth series. A logical conclusion to this series would be a 1.5x 4th decay fractal of 82-83 days or 1.5 times the 27 Oct 2023 1st fractal base of 55 days.

The final fractal series from 12 Feb 2025 is a 11/28/28/16-18 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4 phase fractal series. The 1st and 2nd series are deteriorating decay fractals(as denoted by the red horizontal bars), the 28 3rd fractal is a countertrend growth fractal peaking on day 28 and the 4th 1.5-1.6x fractal of 16-18 days is a decay fractal with the crash devaluation in the terminal final days. This would put the nadir of the 11/28/28/16-18 day series on 6,9, or 10 June 2025.

The final 16-18 day 4th decay fractal may start as the concluding part of the 3rd fractal blow-off, both represented by a 3-phase 5/3 of 10-11/10-11 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series with the first 7 days representing the terminal portion of the 28 day 3rd fractal and the last 16-18 days of the fractal series representing the 4th decay fractal. This 3-phase series could also be configured 5/12-13/7-8 days :: x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. With money being repatriated from the US equity markets and with new deficit spending for NATO military hardware and expansion, it is possible that the German DAX will blow-off to valuations near to or exceeding its prior high. The total SPX 80-82 day fractal series is about 17 weeks in length with an expected final low(equivalent to 8 July 1932) in about 17/34/34/ 20-25 weeks :: x/2x/2x/1.5x'. Below is a primer on deterministic self-assembly asset-debt time based quantitative fractal macroeconomics copied from a previous posting. A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Fractal Growth and Decay of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years and 1982 13/32 of 33/32/-33/20 years) credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself. On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above. Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 14-15 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series. With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuationsWhy does the asset-debt macroeconomic system self-organize to the maximum length x/2.5x/2.5x fractal time-based growth length? It is because equities represent the system’s best available investment with the highest return with superiority over other held assets in terms of possible dividends, valuation growth, tradability, tax-advantaged capital gains, corporate advantaged debt acquisition, and corporate advantaged buy-back legislation above the connecting nadir trend-line.

Mayday ... Yet Another 3-Phase Lammert Primary Fractal Crash Decay Series Model ... 3 Feb 2025 to 12 June 2025

3 Feb 2025 to 12 June 2025 21/42 of 45/27 days :: x/2-2.5x/1.5x'

What is the SPX 1982 to 2026 13/33 Year Primary 1st Fractal Decay Series?

The 1982 to 2026 13/33 year :: x/2.5x fractal series will end in a nonlinear slow fashion like the 1807 36/90 year fractal series ended in 1932. The DJIA peaked on 3 September 1929 and had its nadir valuation on 8 July 1932. The final fractal growth series for the 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x fractal series started on 27 Oct 2023 and was a 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase growth series peaking on 19 February 2025. An alternative primary decay fractal series to the preceding post must be considered as more likely and is a 3-phase 19/35 of 40/24 day :: x/2x/1.6x' fractal decay series starting on 12 February 2025 . See below.

In this fractal series decay model, a large nonlinear drop will occur during the final day or two of a 5 day 4th fractal of a 7 April 2025 21 day 3/8/7 of 7-8/5 day 4-phase fractal series which follows a preceding subseries of a 20 day 4-phase 3/7/8/5 days starting on 11 March 2025.

Not So Smart .. Occam’s Razor and 1982 to 2025 Terminal Fractal Growth: New Projected Initial First Fractal Decay Nadir: 13-19 June 2025.

The global Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System is undergoing a 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd Fractal nonlinear collapse which will end in late 2026. Even before the Hoover 2.0 tariffs and the resumption of college loan debt payments, average American consumers were tapped out and hard-working Chinese savers were already decimated by collapsing property valuations. The terminal portion of the 1994 SPX 33 year 2nd Fractal began on 27 October 2023 with a self assembly 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x near maximum growth fractal series peaking on the 136th day of the 3rd Fractal: 19 February 2025. The 139 day 2nd fractal shows characteristic 2nd fractal gapped lower low nonlinearity in the extreme terminal time area (2-2.5x)between days 137 and 138 and between days 138 and 139. The natural 4 phase evolution of the 27 Oct 2023 3-phase growth series: x/2.5x/2.5x series is x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x or 55/139/136/82-83 days. The graphs below shows the fractal relationship of the 3 February 2025 sequential 8/19/20 day and 7 April 2025 10/20-22/20-22 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x and the interpolated 80-84 day 19 February 2025 4-phase 5/11/13/8 day fractal decay series sequentially followed by a 7 April 10/20-22/20-22 day 3-phase fractal decay series ending 13 June to 19 June 2025.

With an 18 week 1st decay fractal, an 18/36-38/36-38/22 week 4 phase decay series would place the SPX 3rd fractal low valuation near the end of December 2026. The chances for the America hegemony to have a 32 year resurgence will be greatly improved following the 2026 midterms.

The SPX/QQQ/Shanghai-Composite 4-Phase Terminal Growth and Incipient Crash Fractal Series Starting on 13 January 2025 and ending 27 May 2025 - Vice 3 February 2025 and 24 April 2025

The SPX/QQQ identified 4-phase 3 February 2025 8/19/20/13 day :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.6x terminal growth and crash decay fractal series model failed to coincide with the asset-debt system's deterministic self assembly valuation growth and decline pathway. On further review the 3 February 2025 fractal model is interpolated within a larger SPX/QQQ 13 January 2025 13/30/31 of 33/20 day 4-phase terminal growth and initial crash fractal decay series. The 33 day 3rd fractal ends on a lower high on Tuesday 29 April 2025 with a 20 day 4th crash fractal ending on 27 May 2025 and an expected final low in December 2026. The 2nd 30 day fractal contains the 1982 SPX 13/32 year peak valuation high on 19 February 2025 and the 21 February 2025 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x lower high valuation from a terminal fractal growth series starting on 27 October 2023. For the Shanghai composite the 13 January 2025 4 phase fractal series is 12-13/26-33/26-33/18 days with 8 days of the terminal 2nd and the initial 3rd fractal mathematically shared for an average 1st, 2nd, and lower high 3rd fractal of 12-13/29.5-30/29.5-30 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x The 4th crash decay fractal with a 2nd fractal of 30 days length and an ideal 1st fractal base of 12 days would have a 1.5x length of 18 days which balances the Shanghai Composite's 3 days of stock holidays in early May with the SPX's Memorial day on 26 May 2025 ending with a low on 27 May 2025. The Shanghai Composite is following a 4-phase December 2018 16/32/31 of 32/20 month :: x/2x/2x/1.5x' Lammert fractal series with an expected low in December 2026. The timing of the expected lows will have a serious impact on the United States midterm elections of 2026.

The 3 Feb 2025 Lammert 4-phase Fractal Incipient Growth and CRASH Decay Series

Add 1.6y or 13 days to the previous post's predicted SPX incipient 3 February 2025 3-phase y/2-2.5y/2.5y :: 8/19/20 day fractal decay series, and a 3 February 2025 4-phase y/2-2.5y/2.5y/1.6y :: 8/19/20/13 day fractal decay series is the newly predicted incipient fractal crash series. From Sunday March 30, there are 18 more trading days until an initial primary low valuation. It is the opinion of this observer, that the timing of this initial 4-phase crash fractal series is at the end a major asset-debt credit cycle and near the end of maximum SPX timed-based fractal growth, i.e. from 27 October 2023 to the peak SPX valuation on 19 February 2025, a 55/139/136 day :: {x/2.5x/(nearly 2.5x)} was completed. The interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year :: 1st and 2nd fractal series is expected to have a nonlinear ending with a nadir in 2025 or 2026. See below. The incipient crash will likely - with wide-spread market experts' post hoc ergo propter hoc logic - be attributed to the new administration's radical and chaotic policy changes with regard to long-standing alliances, new interest in colonialism, new tariffs, habeas corpus suspensions, non merit-based cabinet selections, use of DOJ in vendetta prosecutions, non-congressional authorized governmental and institutional budget and personnel cuts, et. al.

The previous 3 February 2025 3-phase Crash decay fractal is shown below:

The 3 February 4-phase growth and decay fractal series : 8/19/20/13 days with peak valuation on 19 February and in the 19 day second fractal is shown below.

Please review the previous posting for a primer on the time-based fractal self-assembly laws of global asset-debt system.

THE INCIPIENT 3-PHASE LAMMERT 2025 CRASH FRACTAL DECAY SERIES

The diversity in the respective evolutions of quantitative fractal valuation growth and decay of the European(STOXX 600), United States, Chinese including HangSeng, Japanese and Indian composite equities, which account for more than 85% percent of total global market equity share, allows the pinpointing the US composite equities primary incipient daily decay crash fractal series. Over the last several weeks, this web site has presented several different incipient primary fractal decay models similar to the 12/29/27 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal series in 1929 with the 3 Sept (DJIA) 1929 peak valuation contained in the 29 day 2nd fractal. The 1929 crash occurred near the terminal portion of an 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with nadir valuations in 1842-43 and 1932. 2nd fractals are characterized (as noted in the 2005 opening page) by nonlinear gapped lower lows. There was a 90% devaluation in the terminal portion of the 90 year 2nd fractal from its 1929 peak to its 1932 nadir valuation.

The 2025 crash will occur in an interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with lows in 1994 and a 2nd nonlinear low expected in 2025-2026 near the terminal portion of its 32-33 year 2nd fractal and after its 19 Feb 2025 high valuation. This 1982 interpolated fractal sequence is occurring in a 1807 36/90/90/54 year fractal series which is expected to end in 2074. Below is a primer review of the fractal time-based laws of the self ordering asset-debt macroeconomy’s growth and decay valuations of its composite assets. Credit expands, assets are produced and over-produced and overvalued and over-consumed; composite asset valuations reach a singular peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay, recessions occur, excess debt undergoes default and restructuring, and composite asset valuations reach a nadir. The cycle repeats itself. Empirically the cycles occur in 2 mathematical time- ordered and self-organizing fractal series manners: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped lower lows between the 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped lower lows can be seen in weekly units between 1929 and 1932 of the US 90 year 2nd fractal, before the 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low and can be expected within last few months of the 32-33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.) With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with intervening valuation above the connecting nadir trend-line. The recent incipient crash fractal series decay models provided over the last several week have all lacked the requirements defining fractal groupings as described above. The final SPX growth series started on 27 October 2023 and was a 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth series peaking on 19 February 2025 akin to 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation.

The incipient crash 3-phase fractal decay series for the SPX is a 3 February 8/19/12 of 20 day :: y/2-2.5y/2.5y fractal decay series. Like 1929 the peak valuation on 19 February 2025 is contained in the (19 day) 2nd fractal. Trend lines defining fractal groupings are consistent with this model.

A FRIDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2025 5/13/9 OF 13 DAY 3-PHASE :: Y/2.5Y/2.5Y FRACTAL DECAY SERIES AS THE INITIAL DAILY CRASH 1ST FRACTAL

All composite global equities suggest a major crash during the next 4 trading days. A review of the SPX 55/139/136 day fractal growth series spanning the 27 October 2023 low to the 19 February 2025 peak valuation with the characteristic 139 day 2nd fractal terminal gapped nonlinear lower low valuations ending in the 5 Aug 2024 nadir suggests yet another quantitative 3-phase incipient daily decay pattern. A 19 Feb 2025 peak valuation 5/11/9 of 13 day decay fractal series pattern or alternatively a 14 Feb 5/13/13 day decay fractal series sets 27 or 29 days as the 1st decay fractal equally 6-7 weeks for a 6-7/12-15/10-14 weekly decay fractal series ending in Sept 2025 with a possible lower low in 2026.

The SPX 12 February 2025 9/23/18-23 day CRASH 3-Phase y/2.5y/2-2.5y Fractal Decay Series

The asset-debt macroeconomic system operates in a deterministic self-ordering self-assembly fashion, following quantitative time based elegantly-simple fractal progression.

The 1929 DJIA crash was self-organized a 3-phase 12/29/27 day :: time-based y/2-2.5y/2-2.5 fractal series. After a 23 October 2023 self assembly near maximum growth of 55/139/136 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x; the 1st decay fractal of 9 days occurred in an interpolated fashion in the terminal portion of the a self-ordering 13 January 5/11/10/7 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series, which contained the 136 day 3rd fractal SPX high valuation on 19 Feb 2025. The 2025 SPX CRASH y/2.5y/2-2.5y 3-phase decay series started on 12 Feb 2025 and is composed of 9/23/18-23 days. The 1st 9 day fractal is composed of a 2/5/4 day fractal sub-series. The 23 day 2nd fractal is composed of two fractal sub-series a 2/5/4/3 day or 11 day sub-series and a 13 day 3/6/6 day sub-series. The SPX Crash is part of a global crash of asset overvaluation, asset over-supply, and excessive corporate, governmental, and personal debt related to respectively tax revenues, sustainable corporate profits, falling wages and jobs relative to consumer cost.

19 Feb 2025 SPX Peak Valuation and the Initial 2025 Global Equity CRASH Fractal Series Model

The US asset-debt macroeconomic hegemony's composite equity class peaked in November 2021 completing a x/2.5x/2.5x 1807, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractal 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum peak valuation. What propelled it to its new 27 October 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x SPX 19 Feb 2025 and 21 Feb 2025 peak and secondary valuation - about 30% higher than the Nov 2021 peak?

The answer is US federal deficit to GDP % spending which in 2020 was nearly 14.7% and greater than that % in 1942, America's first year in WW2. Deficit spending was 11.7% in 2021 and has continued to be historically high at 5.3 to 6.3% in subsequent years. Even frozen with the CR at last year's level, recession will place the % at a higher level than 2024. The current fractal decay model takes in consideration the fractal evolution of the HangSeng, Shanghai, European, and Nikkei markets.

Within this model a prior interpolated Feb 19 2025 3/8/8 day decay series model predicted and posted on 28 Feb 2025 is observable. This prior model that does not meet the underlying trend line requirement that defines fractals. See old model below:

The Wilshire has already lost over 5 trillion of its worth since its Feb 2025 peak. The current 4 phase SPX decay fractal series model of 7/14 of 16-17/17/11 days :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y matches the weekly Wilshire 4 phase decay series shown below. Decay starts on week 29(or technically week 30 noting that the first week of 5 August 2024 was upgoing) of the 3rd growth fractal of a 13-/30/30 week :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3- phase fractal growth series. A 2/3 of 4/4/3 week :: y/2y/2y/1.5y 4-phase decay fractal is observable. Note that the 27 Oct 2023 to 5 Aug 2024 trend line has been breached and already there is a nonlinear gapped lower low ON A WEEKLY chart. The gapped lower low so early in the fractal series and on a weekly time unit basis portends severe devaluation near term.

As a reminder, the interpolated primary series is a 1982 13/32-33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series.

The Chinese Property Bubble nonlinear collapse The Chinese property market has about 100% excess capacity; at the height of the 2008 US housing bubble there was about a 5% US excess capacity. The Shanghai property index (and HangSeng and Shanghai Composite) have paralleled the SPX since Oct 2023 in a declining 3 phase weekly fractal growth progression of 13+/34/27 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x concluding a perfect declining growth fractal series and at the fractal timing for 4th fractal 1.5x devaluation. The 27 week 3rd fractal growth was propelled by a huge injection of CCP credit/capital into the banking system. This was a you-tube that was posted on 14 March 2025; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrEULvhIw_s