The Economic Fractalist THE ORDERED MATHEMATICAL SCIENCE OF THE GLOBAL ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM (UPDATED FROM 2005: 1-OCTOBER-2021) THE UNITED STATES' 90 YEAR GREAT THIRD FRACTAL PEAK AND CRASH: THE END OF THE UNITED STATES' GREAT 90 YEAR THIRD FRACTAL HEGEMOMY: 1932 TO 2021. THE US ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM CONFORMS TO A X/2.5X/2.5X GREAT FRACTAL MAXIMUM GROWTH PATTERN OR 36/91/90 YEARS STARTING IN 1807 WITH NADIRS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND ASSET VALUATIONS IN 1842 AND 1932 AND FINAL ASSET PEAK VALUATIONS IN 2021. THE 2009 13 YEAR BLOW-OFF PEAK VALUATION OCCURRING IN 2021 HAS BEEN PRINCIPALLY CAUSED, AND OF NECESSITY, BY UNPRECEDENTED MONEY EXPANSION BY CONTRIVED LOW-INTEREST-RATES MADE POSSIBLE BY, AND IN ADDITION TO, THE INFUSION OF EX-NIHILO-MONEY CREATION BY GOLBAL CENTRAL BANKS. THIS MONEY CREATION WAS, LIKEWISE, OF NECESSITY, DIVORCED FROM THE HISTORICAL SOURCES OF PRIVATE AND SOVEREIGN FUNDED LENDING. THE CYCLICAL FRACTAL HISTORY OF THE RISE AND FALL OF THE US HEGEMONY US INIATING FRACTAL 1790-1807. 18 YEARS US FIRST GREAT FRACTAL. 1807-1842 36 YEARS US SECOND GREAT FRACTAL 1842-1932 91 YEARS US THIRD GREAT FRACTAL 1932-2021 90 YEARS US THIRD 1ST SUBFRACTAL 1932-1982 51 YEARS 11-/21/21 YEARS US THIRD 2ND SUBFRACTAL 1982-2021 40 YEARS 9/20/13 EXPECTED US 4TH DECAY FRACTAL 2021-2074 54 YEARS FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOW: THE 13 YEAR THIRD SUBFRACTAL OF THE US THIRD 40 YEAR 2ND SUBFRACTAL FIRST SUBFRACTAL: A AND B TOTAL 45 MONTHS A 5/13/10/7 32 MONTHS B 3/7/6 14 MONTHS SECOND SUBFRACTAL: A AND B1/B2 TOTAL 108 MONTHS A 8/17/17 40 MONTHS B1A 2/4/4/3 10 MONTHS B1B 2/4/5/3 11 MONTHS SUM B1 20 MONTHS B2A 5/12/10/7 31 MONTHS B2B 4/10/8 20 MONTHS SUM B2 50 MONTHS WELCOME TO THE SMALL ALCOVE FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF CAUSE-AND-EFFECT ASSET-DEBT SATURATION MACROECONOMICS. THIS SITE PURSUES THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE NATURE OF MARKET VALUATIONS AND MACROECONOMIC CYCLES ARE BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND QUANTITATIVE. ASSET VALUATIONS GROW AND DECAY IN A SELF-ASSEMBLY FASHION CONFORMING TO QUANTITATIVE FRACTAL CYCLICAL PATTERNS THAT CAN BE RECOGNIZED, INTERPRETED IN CONJUNCTION WITH DATA FROM THE MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM, AND USED WITH SHORT TERM AND LONG-TERM PREDICATIVE POWER. THIS SITE IS NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS AN INVESTMENT TOOL. VALUATIONS OF ASSETS ARE CONTROLLED CHIEFLY BY THE EXPANSION OF DEBT, SINCE 1982, DEPENDENT UPON THE CASCADINGLY LOWERING OF INTEREST RATES, AND SINCE ABOUT THE EARLY 1990'S, BY FINANCIAL DEBT AND DERIVATIVE ENGINEERING. AND SINCE 2009, THE BLOW-OFF GROWTH OF ASSET VALUATIONS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY MONEY CREATION EX-NIHILO BY CENTRAL BANKS, DETACHED FROM MONEY HISTORICALLY BORROWED FROM PRIVATE AND SOVERIGN LEADING. THIS NOVEL MONEY CREATION HAS BEEN NECESSARY TO SUPPORT A FAILING AND UNBALANCED ASSET-DEBT MACROECNOMIC SYSTEM. LOWERING NOMINAL INTEREST RATES BELOW ASSET INFLATION CONTROLLING RATES LEADS TO MACRO ECONOMICAL DISEQUILIBRIA WITH EXCESSIVE MONEY EXPANSION THROUGH INCREASED BORROWING. THIS EXPANSION ENGENDERS FORWARD CONSUMPTION, OVERPRODUCTION, OVEROWNERSHIP, ASSET OVERVALUATION AND FINALLY CONSUMER SATURATION. WITH THE ADDITION OF ONGOING WAGES AND TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OF THE CONSUMER MASSES, THESE OPPOSITIONAL ELEMENTS ARE COUNTERVAILING, AND PERIODIC MACROECONOMIC ASSET OVERVALUATION, BAD DEBT LIQUIDATION, AND WAGE IMBALANCES WILL SELF CORRECT. IN A SCALAR FRACTAL MANNER MARKET ASSETS GROW TO AN OVERVALUATION SATURATION AREAS AND THEREAFTER DECAY AND CORRECT TO LOWER SATURATION POINTS. TIME UNIT CYCLICAL SELF-SIMILAR PATTERNS CAN READILY BE IDENTIFIED IN VALUATION CHARTS DENOMINATED IN MINUTELY, HOURLY, DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY, AND YEARLY UNITS. THE SHORTER TIME UNIT FRACTAL PATTERNS CORRESPOND TO THE LARGEST YEARLY SCALE THAT REPRESENTS THE UNDERLYING MATHEMATICAL GROWTH AND DECAY QUANTITATIVE FRACTAL ORDER OF THE ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM. TRANSITIONAL ASYMPTOTES OF OVERVALUATION SATURATION CURVES ARE FOLLOWED BY DECAY CURVES, OFTEN NONLINEAR IN NATURE, WHICH BRING MARKET VALUATIONS TO LOWERED LEVELS WHERE BUYERS DETERMINISTICALLY REENTER THE MARKET. THE ASSET DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM'S TWO COMPOSITE SIMPLE GROWTH AND DECAY ASSET VALUATION MATHEMATICAL ORDERED FRACTAL PATTERNS ARE: X/2-2.5X/2-2.5XY/1.5-1.6Y AND X/2-2.5XY/1.5 -2.5XY. X REPRESENTS GROWTH Y REPRESENTS DECAY XY REPRESENTS PEAK GROWTH AND/OR (NONLINEAR)DECAY THESE REGULAR, SIMPLE, AND ORDERED MATHEMATHICAL FRACTAL PATTERNS CONFER THE STATUS OF A SCIENCE ON THE US AND GLOBAL ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM G. LAMMERT THIS PAGE WAS UPDATED ON 1-OCTOBER-2021 FROM THE ORIGINAL BELOW. (THIS PAGE WAS LAST UPDATED ON 15-MAY-2005 01:21:59 PM )