Saturday, January 26, 2008

Decay model E Modified :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x and y/2y/2y

Another 0.25 to 0.75 interbank interest rate cut is expected on Wednesday January 30. This will accompany cuts of 0.5, 0.25, 0.25, and the emergency cut of 0.75 on 18 September, 31 October, 11 December 07, and 22 January 08 respectively. The yield for the ten year note dropped from 4.3 percent on 25 December to 3.3 percent on 23 January. For the same dates treasuries dropped from 3.3 to 1.9 percent. For the Wilshire starting from its 16 August lows, a Lammert four phase 17-18/44/34-35/28 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x day growth and decay fractal appears operative. From 27 December a 6/12-13/12-13 day :: y/2y/2y decay fractal is discernible not only for the Wilshire, but additionally for the FTSE, for the DAX, for the CAC, and for the NIKKEI composite indices with 28 January day 4-5 of a 6/12-13/4-5 of 12-13 day potential y/2y/2y decay fractal sequence. Fourth fractal Day 28 of the 4 phase Lammert fractal series and third fractal day12 of the three phase decay fractal series occur on the same day: 6 February 2008. If this quantum fractal model is correct and there are no trading halts, 6 February 2008 would represent an ideal low with expected nonlinear collapse within the next 8 trading days. The world composite equities are sharing the umbrella influence of a contracting world money supply - contracting under the triple saturation of US consumer asset acquisition, US consumer debt, and global asset overvaluation - all three caused primarily by lending parameters and as well by inadequately-high, non inflation controlling interest rates. From its twenty seven year lows gold is following a 17/34/33 of 33-34 x/2x/2x month growth fractal. From its 16 August 2007 low, gold has made a near perfect Lammert 4 phase fractal sequence of 11/28/22/18 days with the characteristic nonlinear drop in the terminal position of the second growth fractal. In the final 18 days of the final decay fractal, a terminal 9 day base formed serving as a new base with a 9/21-25/14 - 18 of 14 - 21 day growth fractal sequence with a blow off commencing in the early phases of the second fractal. This could be as simple as a 9/21/18 of 18 -21 x/2.5x/2.5x day sequence with day 18 of the third fractal having an opening gap rising to a new US nominal high at 925 US dollars and ending on the low of the day. What are the effects of a 1-1.5 per cent interest rate cut within a two week period? Can the Fed and Congress alter the controlling invisible forces governing the macroeconomy and hence the ideal quantum fractal patterns through historical radical interest rate cuts, 800 US dollar tax rebates, and subprime repayment moratoriums and modifications? The next 8 trading days will provide the answer.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

'Decay Model E' : Oct 1987 and ? Jan 2008: the Terminal 23 July 1987 and 16 August 2007 x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x Lammert Nonstochastic Fractal Sequences

In 1987 the US macroeconomy during and after the rapid Wilshire October equity devolution was in a healthy state. Underpinned by massive percentage GDP deficit cold war military expenditures, by its position as a world creditor nation with high savings, by its NAFTA-less WTO-less role as a net exporting and manufacturing nation, by its role as the foremost innovative technology R and D developer and manufacturer of microcircuits and computer chips - very equivalent to the 1950's transistor revolution- and by the related ongoing explosive marketing of the PC, the 1987 US macroeconomy was a global economic steamroller. The tranisent nonlinear October 1987 equity collapse was quite simply secondary to transient overvaluation and investor saturation; a nonstochastic saturation event that occurred in an otherwise remarkable economic growth period. Over twenty years later, the US macroeconomy suffers from a most severe dysequilibrium, the necessary consequences of 'globalization' of its formerly more nationalistic US corporations. Maximal profit motive drove US corporate CEO's and boards of directors to make business decisions and influence American politicians in the passage of globalization agreements that would maximize corporate profits. Ultimately corporate profit motive has relegated the American consumer to a significantly indebted borrower - with corporations gaining large profits from the financial debt business and the business of importing and distribution of cheap labor produced items to the US consumer market. During this same time low interest rates - politically and economically necessitated by the 32 month or so collapse of the high tech bubble, lending parameters of the financial industry, and artificial transient wealth created from the resulting inflation of the housing bubble synergistically provided the dynamics for the unsustainable debt driven economic growth. Globalized corporations had record profits - reaping benefits from both lending to American consumers and selling cheap-labor imported manufactured goods. First, the saturated and overvalued housing bubble crested and remaining investment money was focused on the equity and commodity markets. As the available investment money further contracted by ongoing debt default and associated restricted lending, the residual was lastly focused on the commodity markets. At the end there will be inadequate amounts of investment money available to support commodities. Without any particular Federal Reserve monetary action, residual investment money, as many times past predicted, has optimally flowed into the US federal debt market driving the ten year note to a four year low. The 2008 US macroeconomy is triply saturated: saturated with a large supply of overvalued assets, saturated with asset over-ownership, and saturated with debt - all three supported by a contracting number of disproportionally service-related US jobs. 2.6 trillion dollars has undergone devolution from the Wilshire's 11 October 2007predicted high. January 2008 is not October 1987. It likely represents the nonlinear devolution area of a major generational consumer saturation time phase predicted in The Economic Fractlist. Near ideal Lammert x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal progression may soon occur. For the 1987 Wilshire it was 9-10/24-25/20/15 days and for the 2008 Wilshire it may likely be 17-18/44/34/25-27 days.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Lammert Quantum Macroeconomics: 16-17/43 of 43/43 days or Decay Model E

The American economy - and hence with its weighted value, the global macroeconomy - is contracting. The American economy that has been so heavily dependent on massive debt growth with primary gains over the last 5 years in the real estate and financial debt industry sectors came to a net worth climax likely on July 19, 2007 when the combined commodity, real estate, bond, and equity markets' worth reached a zenith composite valuation level. Perhaps aided with the lowered interbank interest rates by the Federal Reserve and perhaps of its own 20/50/40 day intrinsic maximum growth process, the 15 trillion dollar Wilshire made a final predicted high on 11 October 2007. Equity asset values unsupported by further debt expansion at the consumer level are undergoing devolution. Job numbers related to real estate, durable good production, disposable income driven entertainment, financial transactions, sales, et. al. - are all contracting in a macroeconomy defined by limited wage growth, consumer saturation, debt saturation, asset overvaluation,and bad loans undergoing default. How does this asset overvaluation - consumer saturation macroeconomy compare to 1929 and 2000? The country and the world are about to find out. How severe will the devolution be and how effective will a sub one percent Fed Fund rate and less than 1 per cent treasury rate be in propping up the equity markets? By the US 1930's experience with T-bills approaching 0 per cent and the more recent Japanese experience, it is not likely the Federal Reserve will have a determining influence. The value of surviving US dollars will increase relative to assets undergoing devolution. Gold which has undergone a recent blow-off has completed a 7/17/14 year fractal starting about 1970. The mid portion of the 14 year third fractal has shown this collectible's substantial weakness and is harbinger of future valuation.
For the Wilshire December 2007 concluded a 11/27/27 month maximum saturation growth fractal x/2.5x/2.5x starting in October 2002. The Wilshire's weekly count 'borrowed' 2 weeks from the concluding portion of a three phase decay fractal starting in 1999 for a 46/115/92 week fractal with week 92 of the third fractal within a few days of the 19 July 2007 averaged daily high. Week 115 (2.5x) of the maximum saturation area of the third fractal rests between the two final weekly highs at weeks 114 and 116 correlating to the final daily lower highs on 12 and 26 December 2007, respectively. So what is the necessary quantitative fractal decay pattern? Model D from this site is still viable at 16-17/42 of 43/43 days as of 11 January with Monday 14 January (vice 12 January,a nontrading day) as the possible nonlinear break point day. At the close of 11 January 2008 and on a 15 minute fractal basis the Wilshire has recently followed a perfect 12/30/25 :: x/2.5x/2x 15 minute unit pattern - the base borrowing (3) 15 minute units from the preceding decay fractal. The 24th 15 minute unit of the third fractal was higher than the 25th unit. Will Monday 14 January day 43 of a potential 16-17/43 of 43/43 day decay fractal represent a nonlinear break point day - or is it the beginning of a few day growth area and consistent with Model E?

Model E for the Wilshire: From the 16 August low a 17-18/44/34/25-26 x/2.5x/2x/1.5x completed fractal with day 25-26 of the 4th (decay) fractal representing an interim low, prior to yet another deteriorating growth and much lower low decay sequence of perhaps 41 weeks in length. Interestingly the 17-18/44/34/26 model matches the duration of an averaged 20/50/50 day decay sequence starting on 16 August with a second fractal low on 21 November(still slight higher than the 26 November low)

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Decay Fractal Model D 16/40/40 or 16-17/40-43/40-43 days?

Because 22 October 2007 the first day of first decay fractal was upgoing, the window for the conclusion of the second fractal for model D is extended to 11-12 January 2008.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Lammert Fractal Decay Model D Still Operative

The potential science of Lammert quantum macroeconomic fractal analysis has predicted the 19 July 2007 and 11 October 2007, secondary nominal high and final nominal high, respectively, and more recently, the 26 December 2007 lower high saturation tops. From this alcove site, decay model D:: 16/40/40 days :: y/2.5y/2.5y is still operative with a count of 16/37 of 40/40 days as of 6 January 08. If this quantum decay model is correct a devolution of at least 7-10 percent of the Wilshire should occur over the next three trading days taking the Wilshire to a minimum of a 12-16 month low during the trading day of 9 January 2008. In this decay model, the absolute decline and underlying slope line for the 40 day second decay fractal are important because they will yield telling information regarding the macroeconomy's ability for another possible short debt cycle, fueled by sub one percent Fed Fund's rates and 1- 2 percent ten year notes. On the other hand, a more profound devolution is possible (consistent with the terminal portion of the 150 year US equity second fractal) with a completion of the 1.6x decay portion of the 17-18/44/34/1.6x or 27-28 day fractal starting 16 August 2007.