Saturation Asset-Debt Macroeconomics: The mathematical case for historical 1982 13/29 year second Rractal Nonlinearity

The case for possible historical second fractal nonlinearity over the next four trading days ... See previous posting for subfractal series of the 1982 13/29 first and second fractal series and in the larger context of a 1807 US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year Great Fractal Series. Does the 20 December 2021 7/18/14/7 of 11 day decay series represent the 29 year second fractal terminal 2-2.5x portion of a 1982-1994/1994 - 2022 first and second fractal subseries :: 13/29 years :: x/2-2.5x? Observing the long term US equities charts from a 1982-onward vantage point, a blow-off from March 2020 related to - 7 trillion dollars of pandemic money printing with base population money distribution, zero interest rate policy favoring equity and commodity speculation, and Federal Reserve purchases of mortgage backed securities resulting in 3 % mortgage rates - is evident. If the 'correct' 1982 terminal fractal grouping for the now 43.9 trillion dollar Wilshire coposite starting from the March 2020 lows is actually 19/43/42 of 43 weeks, the 7/18/14 /7 of 11 day decay fractal series starting on 20 December 2021 and ending on Thursday 24 February 2022 and coinciding with the terminal portion of the third fractal 43 weeks of the Marchlow 2020 19/43/43 week fractal could represent and coincide with terminal nonlinearity for the major 13/29 year 1982 first and second fractal series. From the March 2020 low for the Wilshire: 19 weeks = 3/7/7/5 weeks 43 weeks = sequential series of 3/8/6 weeks; 4/8/9 weeks; and 2/4/5/3 weeks 43 weeks = 6/15/15/8 of 9 weeks On a global scale this would coincide to a Chinese property market collapse represented by Evergrande with a terminal daily fractal sequence of 18/40//8/18/19/12 days

Confirmation of the New Patterned Science of the Global Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System

The Economic Fractalist UPDATED 13 FEBRUARY 2022 CURRENT 70 WEEK SECOND FRACTAL EXPECTED NONLINEAR LOW VALUATION DATE: 24 FEBRUARY 2022 ... THE CURRENT US COMPOSITE WILSHIRE PROXY FOR THE GLOBAL ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING A 10 FEBRUARY TO 24 FEBRUARY 2022 11 DAY NONLINEAR VALUATION DECLINE AS PART COMPLETING A SELF-ORDERED 7/18/14/11 DAYS FRACTAL SERIES STARTING ON THE LOW OF 20 DECEMBER 2021 AND COMPLETING A 70 WEEK SECOND FRACTAL SUBSERIES FROM THE 33 WEEK MARCH 2020 BASE FIRST FRACTAL LOW. THE GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ASSET DEBT SYSTEM IS WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE SECOND FRACTAL NONLINEARITY WINDOW OF A US HEGEMONY 1982 13/29 YEAR FIRST AND SECOND FRACTAL SERIES. THE FINAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN OCTOBER/NOVEMBER OF 2022. THE ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM IS EFFICIENT IN ITS DETERMINISTIC SELF ASSEMBLY GROWTH AND DECAY TO ITS ASSETS' PEAK VALUATION POINT-IN-TIME GROWTH AND TO ITS ASSETS' NADIR VALUATION POINT-IN-TIME MAXIMUM DECAY. THE ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMY FOLLOWS TWO BASIC FRACTAL SELF-ORDERING SELF-ORGANIZING MATHEMATICAL FRACTAL LAWS: A THREE PHASE FRACTAL SERIES: X/2-2.5XY/1.5XY-2.5XY AND A FOUR PHASE FRACTAL SERIES: X/2-2.5XY/1.6-2.5XY/1.5-1.6XY. HERE X =Y = XY AS A BASIC FRACTAL TIME QUANTUM UNIT AND FRACTALLY DENOMINATED IN MINUTES, HOURS, DAYS, WEEKS, MONTHS, AND YEARS. X DENOTES A GROWTH BASIC TIME UNIT; Y DENOTES A BASIC DECAY DEVALUATION TIME UNIT, AND XY MAY BE EITHER GROWTH OR DECAY TIME UNITS. THESE SIMPLE SELF-ASSEMBLY LAWS CONFER UPON THE ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM THE CHARACTERISTICS AND STATUS OF A PATTERNED SCIENCE THE MARCH 2020 GLOBAL COMPOSITE EQUITY LOW 68 OF 70 WEEK SECOND FRACTAL SUBSERIES NONLINEAR DEVALUATION UPDATE FROM THE COMPOSITE GLOBAL EQUITIES MARCH 2020 LOW, A GLOBAL EQUITY COMPOSITE FIRST AND SECOND FRACTAL SERIES OF 33/68 OF 70 WEEKS CAN BE IDENTIFIED. BASED ON THE FRACTAL GROUPING SELF ASSEMBLY THE EXPECTED NONLINEAR TERMINAL LOW FOR THIS 70 WEEK FRACTAL SUBSERIES AT THE END OF THE THURSDAY 24 FEBRUARY 2022 TRADING DAY. HOW BIG WILL THE FEBRUARY 2022 NONLINEAR DEVALUATION BE? LIKELY BIGGER THAN MOST ANTICIPATE. BESIDES THE US JANUARY 2022 ANNUALIZED 7.5 % INFLATION RATE WITH THE ‘TRANSIENT’ FEDERAL RESERVE BANK'S PLANNED BUT NOT AS OF YET INSTITUTED RESPONSE OF MONEY TIGHTENING AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES. (THE TEN YEAR NOTES TOUCHED 2.O63% ON FRIDAY, 11 FEBRUARY 2022, THE HIGHEST IN 2.5 YEARS.) THE PRIMARY MOST WORRISOME PART OF THE GLOBAL ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIS SYSTEM IS THE CHINESE PROPERTY DEBT BUBBLE WHICH IS IMPLODING AND WILL DESTROY THE AVERAGE CHINESE CITIZEN’S BASIS FOR WEALTH. SINCE NOVEMBER 2021 THE EARLIER 20 MONTHS OF GLOBAL COVID HISTORICALLY UNPARALLED DEFICIT SPENDING AND MONEY CREATION HAS CAUSED MORE INFLATION IN COMMODITY PRICES, AFFECTING THE SYSTEM'S PYRAMID BASE CONSUMER, THAN PRICE ELEVATIONS IN GLOBAL GLODAL EQUITIES. AS OF 12 FEBRUARY 2022 THE PRIMARY OPERATIVE SELF ASSEMBLY DAILY DECAY X/2.5Y/2X/1.6X/ FOUR PHASE SEQUENCE STARTING 20 DECEMBER 2021 FOR THE WILSHIRE 5000 IS 7/18/14/2 OF 11 DAYS. ENDING ON 24 FEBRUARY 2022. CRYPTOCURRENCIES: THE MONTHLY/WEEKLY/DAILY/4 HOUR UNIT/ FRACTAL SERIES MONTHLY: 27/60 MONTH :: A X/2-2.5X FIRST AND SECOND FRACTAL SERIES SEQUENCE. WEEKLY: FROM MARCH 2020 LOW: BITCOIN IN USD: 30/73 OF 75 WEEKS :: A X/2-2.5X FIRST AND SECOND FRACTAL SERIES DAILY: FROM THE 3 DECEMBER 2021 LOW: 17/34/22 OF 34 DAYS :: A Y/2Y/2Y FRACTAL SERIES (EXPECTED 24 FEBRUARY LOW) 4-HOUR UNIT FROM THE 2/3/2022 LOW: 20/48/42-45/27 4-HOURS UNITS :: X/2-2.5XY/2-2.5Y/1.5XY ENDS 24 FEBRUARY 2022 FOR WESTERN GLOBAL EQUITIES USING THE SPX AS REPRESENTIVE: FROM THE MARCH WILSHIRE COMPOSITE 2020 LOW TO 24 FEBRUARY 2022 LOW: A 33/70 WEEK FIRST AND SECOND FRACTAL SERIES IS OBSERVABLE USING NADIR VALUATIONS TO DETERMINE FRACTAL UNITS. THE 33 WEEK FIRST FRACTAL IS SELF ORDERED INTO TWO SUBSERIES: A 3/7/8 WEEK FRACTAL SERIES AND A 4/10/6 WEEK FRACTAL SERIES. THE 70 WEEK SECOND FRACTAL WEEKLY SUBSERIES FROM THE 30 OCTOBER 2020 LOW TO THE TARGETED 24 FEBRUARY 2022 LOW IS SELF-ORGANIZED INTO THREE FRACTAL SUBSERIES UNITS: A 4/8/9 WEEK FRACTAL SERIES ; A 4/8/6 WEEK SERIES AND A 6/12/12/8 OF 10 OR 6/12/13/9 WEEK FRACTAL SERIES ALL THREE FRACTAL SUBSERIES CONFORMING TO THE FRACTAL SELF-ASSEMBLY LAWS ABOVE IN RED. FROM THE 24 JANUARY 2022 LOW AN INTERPOLATED 5/13/8 DAY :: X/2.5XY/1.6 Y FRACTAL SERIES WOULD FIT THE COMPLETION OF A 20 DECEMBER 2021: 7/18/14/11 DAY FOUR PHASE DECAY SERIES. THE NIKKEI PATTERN FROM THE MARCH 2020 LOW IS EASILY DECERNABLE. THE FIRST 33 WEEKS SEQUENCE IS A 6/15/14 WEEK :: X/2.5X/2.5XY FRACTAL SERIES (AND THE CRB 33 WEEK SERIES WITH THE FIRST 6 WEEKS DOWN-GOING). THE 70 WEEK FRACTAL SERIES IS COMPOSED OF A 14/30/26 OF 28 WEEK :: X/2-2.5XY/2Y FRACTAL SERIES FOR THE NIKKEI FROM ITS 19 DECEMBER LOW: A 9/19/11 OF 20 DAYS SERIES WOULD COMPLETE THE 14/30/28 WEEK :: X/2-2.5XY/2Y 70 WEEK SECOND FRACTAL SERIES. FROM THE MARCH 2020 LOW THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IS SELF-ORDERED DIFFERENTLY FROM WESTERN AND NIKKEI EQUITY COMPOSITES. THERE ARE TWO IDENTIFIALE FRACTAL SUBSERIES FROM THE MARH 2020 LOW: A 10/24/25/16 WEEK SERIES AND A 5/11/10/5 OF 7 WEEKS SERIES. BOTH CONFORM TO THE ABOVE FRACTAL SELF-ASSEMBLY LAWS DEFINED IN RED ABOVE. FEBRUARY 24 2022 WOULD COMPLETE A SHANGHAI PROPERTY INDEX AND A SHANGHAI COMPOSITE: 5/11/10/5 OF 7 WEEK SERIES. FROM THE MARCH 2020 LOW THE HANGSENG COMPOSITE ISSELF ASSEMBLED INTO A 29 WEEK FIRST FRACTAL. (THE COUNT IS 20 WEEKS BUT THE FIRST WEEK IS DOUBLE COUNTED BECAUSE IT IS UPGOING-STARTS ON A LOW VALUATION . THE SECOND FRACTAL AND ENDS ON A HIGH) COMPOSED OF A 29/71 OF 73 WEEK SERIES. THE FIRST 29 WEEK FRACTAL SERIES IS COMPOSED OF OF TWO SUBSERIES: 2/5/4/3 WEEKS AND 4/8/8 WEEKS. THE SECOND 73 WEEK FRACTAL IS COMPOSED OF A 16/32/29 OF 31 WEEK SERIES. 24 FEBRUARY 2022 WOULD COMPLETE A HANGSENG 723 WEEK SECOND FRACTAL SERIES AND A 16 DECEMBER 13/33 DAY SERIES; WHERE THE 33 DAY SECOND FRACTAL IS COMPOSED OF A 5/ 13/8 OF 10-11/8-7 DAY FRACTAL SERIES. ALL HANGSENG WEEKLY AND DAILY FRACTAL GROUPINGS CONFORM TO THE ABOVE MATHEMATICAL TIME BASED FRACTAL LAWS. WHAT DOES THE NONLINEARITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TERMINAL 2-2.5X TIME FRAME OF SECOND FRACTALS LOOK LIKE? OBSERVE THE TRANSITION FROM FEBRUARY 3 TO FEBRUARY 4 2022 FOR FACEBOOK (META PLATFORMS) WHICH NONLINEARLY LOST 1/4 TRILLION DOLLARS. PLEASE REVIEW THE BELOW US HEGEMONIC 1807 36/90/90 YEAR :: X/2.5X/2.5X GRAND PEAK GROWTH FRACTAL SERIES AND THE WILSHIRE'S 31/62/62 MONTH GROWTH SERIES FROM ITS NADIR LOW IN MARCH 2009 ITS PEAK VALUATION IN NOVEMBER 2021. IT SHOULD BE EVIDENT FROM THE UBIQIOUS RECURRENT TIME ORDERED FRACTAL PATTERNS THAT THE ASSET DEBT SYSTEM SYSTEM IS A SELF-ORDERING SYSTEM AND HAS THE PATTERNED CHARACTERISTICS OF A HARD SCIENCE. 13 FEBRUARY 2022: IN VIEW OF THE NOV 2022 WILSHIRE 31/62/62 MONTH :: X/2X/2X PEAK VALUATION (FROM ITS MARCH 2009 LOW) IN NOVEMBER 2021 THE 70 WEEK SECOND FRACTAL DEVALUATION OVER THE NEXT NINE TRADING DAYS COULD BE HISTORIC. THIS WEEKLY FIRST AND SECOND FRACTAL SERIES IS INTERPOLATED IN A LARGER SCALE COMPLETION OF A 1982 13/29 YEAR FIRST AND SECOND FRACTAL SERIES FOR THE WILSHIRE. THE WINDOW FOR THE 1082-1994 13 YEAR BASE IS 2-2.5X OR 26-33 YEARS BUT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN IN LATE OCTOBER OR NOVEMBER 2022. THE CRB: UPDATED 13 FEBRUARY 2022 THE SECOND FRACTAL FOR THE CRB IS SELF-ASSEMBLED INTO A 10/25/23/13 OF 15 WEEK FRACTAL SERIES. THE FIRST MARCH 2020 FRACTAL SERIES WAS 33 WEEKS WITH THE FIRST 6 WEEKS DOWNGOING AND FOLLOWS THE NIKKEI 33 WEEK FIRST FRACTAL GROWTH PATTERN FROM ITS MARCH 2020 LOWS. IF THE EXPECTED SECOND FRACTAL NONLINEARITY OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT NINE TRADING DAYS FOR THE CRB AND GLOBAL EQUITIES IS MODEST, I.E., 5-15% DEVALUATION VICE A HISTORICAL 30-50% DEVALUATION, FURTHER THIRD FRACTAL COMMODITY PRICE INCREASES WITH DIRECT INFLATION AT THE CONSUMER LEVEL WILL SERVE AS A PRIMARY ONGOING IMPETUS FOR THE US CENTRAL BANK TO REMOVE LIQUIDITY FROM THE MARKET BY THE MARKET SELLING SOME OF ITS EX NIHILO CREATED AND ACCUMULATED 9 TRILLION OF FEDERAL RESERVE HELD BONDS. THIS WILL RAISE THE US NOTE AND BOND INTEREST RATES. FOR ZOMBIE COMPANIES AND NEWLY CREATED COMPANIES DEPENDENT ON DEBT CREATION AND CAUSING THE RELATIVELY POORER PERFORMANCE OF THE RUSSEL COMPOSITE, FEBRUARY 2022 THIRD FRACTAL GROWTH (FROM THE MARCH 2020 LOW) AND STARTING FEBRUARY 2022 FOR EQUITIES WILL BE DAMPENED. IF A MAJOR COMMODITY CRASH (30-50%) OCCURS BY 24 FEBRUARY 2022 INTEREST RATES HIKES AND THE SELLING OF HELD FEDERAL RESERVE BONDS MAY BE DELAYED AND MORE QUANTITATIVE EASING AND MONEY CREATION MAY BE NECESSARY. GOING FORWARD DURING THE NEXT 54 YEARS OF THE US HEGEMONIC GRAND FOURTH FRACTAL (36/90/90/54 YEARS) THE GREAT RUB AND CONUNDRUM FOR MONETARY POLICY DECISION MAKERS IS FOUND IN THE CURRENT MICROCOSM OF THE CRB VICE COMPOSITE EQUITIES SINCE EARLY DECEMBER 2021. DURING THIS TIME THE CRB INDEX HAS RISEN BY OVER 15 PERCENT WHILE THE WILSHIRE VALUATION HAS REMAINED ABOUT NEUTRAL AS OF 13 FEBRUARY 2022. KEEPING INTEREST RATES TOO LOW TO CONTROL CRB RELATED INFLATION HAS RESULTED AND WILL RESULT IN FURTHER VALUATION INCREASES OF THE CRB GIRECTLY HURTING CONSUMERS, THE BASE OF THE ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM PYRAMID. ON THE OTHER HAND, JUST THE THREAT OF RAISING RATES HAS DAMPENED COMPOSITE EQUITY PRICES AND WILL NONLINEARLY PRICK THE EQUITY BUBBLE AT THE TERMNAL PORTION OF THE 70 WEEK SECOND FRACTAL FOR WESTERN AND NIKKEI COMPOSITE EQUITIES. THE END GAME FOR THE 2021-2074 54 YEAR FOURTH GRAND FRACTAL FOR THE US HEGEMONY IS THAT FURTHER MONEY CREATION AND NEAR NEGATIVE OR NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO SERVICE THE ACCUMULATED DEBT LOAD AND MAINTAIN SOCIAL PROGRAMS. THIS WILL CAUSE INFLATION AT THE CONSUMER LEVEL FOR THE LARGE BASE OF THE WORKING POPULATION. THOSE COMPETING PARAMETERS WILL BE THE 54 YEAR CONUNDRUM RUB FOR CENTRAL BANKS AND POLITICIANS CONTROLLING FUTURE MONETARY POLICY. THIS CONUNDRUM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE COMPLETE GLOBALIZATION OF AUTHORITARIAN GOVERNMENTS. CHINA'S MASSIVE DEBT AND ITS BASE POPULATION'S WEALTH IN A SUPERBUBBLED DE FACTO PYRAMID REAL ESTATE SCHEME IS ARGUABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FOR A LINEAR CONTINUATION OF THE GLOBAL MACROECONOMY STATUS QUO. AS A REPRESENTATIVE PROXY, THE CHINESE INVESTMENT AND FINANCE GROUP LTD (HK:1226) RECOVERED FROM A LOST OF 99.5% FROM ITS HIGH IN 2010 TO A LOSS OF ONLY ... 99%.(A RELATIVE 100% GAIN FROM ITS LOW). THOSE RELATIVE GAINS IN THE LAST FEW TRADING DAYS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY 40-45%. THE CHINESE REAL ESTATE PROPERTY SUPER BUBBLE IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE. THE PATTERNED AND SELF ORDERED MATHEMATICAL SCIENCE OF THE GLOBAL ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM. 1807-NOVEMBER 2021: THE US HEGEMONY'S 36/90/90 YEAR :: X/2.5X/2.5X MAXIMUM SELF-ASSEMBLY ASSET VALUATION GROWTH (RELATIVE TO ITS MAXIMUM ACCUMMULATION OF BAD DEBT) THE UNITED STATES' 1932-2021 90 YEAR GREAT THIRD FRACTAL PEAK VALUATION AND NONLINEAR CRASH: 1932 FIRST SUBFRACTAL: 11/22/21-22 YEARS WITH A SECOND SUBFRACTAL SERIES OF 13/29 YEARS :: X/2-2.5X STARTING IN 1982. THE WILSHIRE TOTAL US MARKET PEAK VALUATION AT 48,95251 (NEARLY 49)TRILLION DOLLARS OCCURRED ON 8 NOVEMBER 2021. FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOW TO THE NOV 2021 PEAK VALUATION THE ASSET- DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM SELF ASSEMBLED ITS VALUATION GROWTH INTO 3/6/6 YEARS :: 31/62/62 MONTHS :: A X/2X/2X FRACTAL SERIES. THIS ELEGANTLY SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM'S EFFICIENT SELF ASSEMBLY GROWTH LAWS. THE GREAT NONLINEAR 90 YEAR CRASH DEVALUATION IS ANTICIPATED ON WEEK 70 OF A 33/70 WEEK FIRST AND SECOND FRACTAL SERIES SEE BELOW THE 1807 215 YEAR UNITED STATES MAXIMAL X/2.5X/2.5X :: 36/90/90 YEAR THREE PHASE GREAT FRACTAL GROWTH MATHEMATICAL SELF ASSEMBLY SERIES FOR THE ASSET DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM. MODIFIED FROM THE 2005 ORIGINAL 'THE ECONOMIC FRACTALIST' WEBSITE. WELCOME TO THE SMALL ALCOVE FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF DETERMINISTIC CAUSE-AND-EFFECT ASSET-DEBT SATURATION MACROECONOMICS. THIS SITE PURSUES THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE NATURE OF MARKET VALUATIONS AND MACROECONOMIC CYCLES IS BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND QUANTITATIVE. ASSET VALUATIONS GROW AND DECAY IN A SELF-ASSEMBLY, SELF-ORGANIZING FASHION CONFORMING TO QUANTITATIVE AND ELEGANTLY SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL FRACTAL PATTERNS WHICH CAN BE RECOGNIZED, INTERPRETED IN CONJUNCTION WITH DATA FROM THE MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM, AND USED WITH SHORT TERM AND LONG-TERM PREDICATIVE POWER. THIS SITE IS NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AS AN INVESTMENT TOOL. VALUATIONS OF ASSETS ARE CONTROLLED CHIEFLY BY THE EXPANSION OF DEBT. SINCE 1982 THE US, THE CURRENT GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC HEGEMONY, HAS USED THE TOOL OF CASCADINGLY LOWERING OF INTEREST RATES TO MAINTAIN THE ILLUSION OF BALANCE BETWEEN OUTSTANDING DEBT AND SOCIAL CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND ITS ABILITY TO PAY THOSE DEBTS FROM ITS RELATIVELY WEAKENING GDP PERCENTAGE-WISE TAX BASE. LOWERING NOMINAL INTEREST RATES BELOW ASSET INFLATION CONTROLLING RATES LEADS TO MACRO ECONOMICAL DISEQUILIBRIA WITH EXCESSIVE MONEY EXPANSION THROUGH INCREASED BORROWING. THIS EXPANSION ENGENDERS FORWARD CONSUMPTION, OVERPRODUCTION, OVEROWNERSHIP, ASSET OVERVALUATION AND FINALLY CONSUMER SATURATION AT PEAK ASSET VALUATIONS. WITH THE ADDITION OF ONGOING WAGES AND TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OF THE CONSUMER MASSES, THESE OPPOSITIONAL ELEMENTS ARE COUNTERVAILING, AND PERIODIC MACROECONOMIC ASSET OVERVALUATION, BAD DEBT LIQUIDATION, AND EXCESSIVE WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS RELATIVE TO ASSET DEVALUATION AND COMSUMPTION WILL SELF CORRECT. YEARS OF US HISTORICAL PEAK SATURATION VALUATIONS - FOLLOWED BY NONLINEAR VALUATION COLLAPSES AND NADIRS: 1807-09; 1837-43; 1857-58; 1873-77; 1893-97; 1907-09; 1920-21; 1929 -JUNE 1932; 1973-74; 2000-2003; 2007-MARCH 2009; FEB 2020-MARCH 2020; JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2022 AND OCT-NOV 2022. IN THE EARLY 2000'S UNREGULATED FINANCIAL ENGINEERING IN THE WESTERN SPHERE AND EASY CREDIT IN THE EASTERN SPHERE ENGENDERED GLOBAL HISTORICAL REAL ESTATE OVERVALUATION. THE CHINESE SHANGHAI HAS NOT RECOVERED TO ITS 2008 REAL-ESTATE BASED AND OVERVALUED PEAK. A RECENT 2020-21 80-90 % COLLAPSE OF MUCH OF THE CHINESE REAL ESTATE EQUITY SECTOR SHOWS THE RESIDUAL FRAGILTY AND CONTINUED CORRECTION OF THE 2008 OVERVALUATION AND OVERPRODUCED PEAK. SINCE LATE 2008 NOVEL MONEY CREATION IN THE WEST HAS BEEN NECESSARY TO SUPPORT THAT GLOBAL 2007-2009 CONSUMER-HELD ASSET VALUATION COLLAPSE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAILING AND UNBALANCED ASSET-DEBT MACROECNOMIC SYSTEM. IN AUGUST 2019 AND BEFORE THE PANDEMIC GERMAN 30 YEAR BONDS IN A TALE-TELL FASHION YIELDED FOR THE FIRST TIME NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES. SINCE THE COLLAPSE OF PROPERTY AND EQUITY VALUATIONS IN 2009, AN EASILY RECOGNIZABLE BLOW-OFF PATTERN IN THE GROWTH OF EQUITY ASSET VALUATIONS (AND IN 2021 REAL ESTATE) HAS BEEN GENERATED BY THE EX-NIHILO MONEY CREATION BY THE US CENTRAL BANK TO BUY US DEBT AND MORTAGAGE BACKED SECURITES TO SHORE-UP THE UNBALANCED ASSET-DEBT SYSTEM. THIS MONEY CREATION IS DIVORCED FROM HISTORICAL MONEY BORROWING BASED ON THE EXISTING WEALTH OF PRIVATE SOURCES. THIS IS BEYOND FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANK LENDING. THE EXCESS MONEY CREATION HAS DIRECTLY CAUSED THE INFLATION OF COMMODITIES. COMMODITY VALUATIONS HAVE TEMPORARILY RISEN ABOVE THE THE 2008-2019 CRB FALLING TRENDLINE, CAUSING REAL PAIN FOR THE WORKER BASE POPULATION. AS WELL, INSTEAD OF INCENTIVIZING AMERICAN CORPORATIONS TO USE PROFITS FACILITATED BY THAT NOVELLY MANUFACTURED MONEY AND LOWERED INTEREST RATES TO RECLAIM AMERICAN MANFACTURING AND INDUSTRIES REPRESENTED BY THE CONTENTS OF TRANSOCEANIC CONTAINERS, AMERICAN CORPORTATIONS HAVE BEEN PERVERSELY INCENTIVIZED TO USE PROFITS, FURTHER INCREASED BY LOWERED AND HISTORICALLY LOW CORPORATE TAXES, FOR STOCK BUY BACKS, FURTHER INFLATING EQUITY VALUATIONS AND THE PAPER ASSET WEALTH OF INDIVIDUAL CORPORATE BOARD MEMBERS. IN A SCALAR FRACTAL MANNER MARKET ASSETS GROW TO AN OVERVALUATION SATURATION AREA AND THEREAFTER DECAY IN A NONLINEAR FASHION AND CORRECT TO LOWER SATURATION POINTS. TIME UNIT CYCLICAL SELF-SIMILAR FRACTAL PATTERNS CAN READILY BE IDENTIFIED IN VALUATION CHARTS DENOMINATED IN MINUTELY, HOURLY, DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY, AND YEARLY UNITS. THE SHORTER TIME UNIT FRACTAL PATTERNS CORRESPOND TO THE LARGEST YEARLY SCALE THAT REPRESENTS THE UNDERLYING MATHEMATICAL GROWTH AND DECAY QUANTITATIVE FRACTAL ORDER OF THE ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM. TRANSITIONAL ASYMPTOTES OF OVERVALUATION SATURATION CURVES ARE FOLLOWED BY DECAY CURVES, OFTEN NONLINEAR IN NATURE, WHICH BRING MARKET VALUATIONS TO NADIR LEVELS WHERE NET BUYERS REENTER THE MARKET AND NET GROWTH BEGINS. THE ASSET DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM'S TWO COMPOSITE SIMPLE GROWTH AND DECAY ASSET VALUATION MATHEMATICAL ORDERED FRACTAL PATTERNS ARE: X/2-2.5X/2-2.5XY/1.5-1.6Y : A FOUR PHASE FRACTAL SERIES AND X/2-2.5XY/1.5 -2.5XY : A THREE PHASE FRACTAL SERIES X = Y = XY AS FRACTAL TIME UNIT (HOURS, DAYS, WEEKS ET. AL.) X REPRESENTS GROWTH Y REPRESENTS DECAY XY REPRESENTS PEAK GROWTH AND/OR (NONLINEAR)DECAY FROM THE 2005 THE ECONMIC FRACTALIST WEBSITE: THE IDEAL GROWTH FRACTAL TIME SEQUENCE IS X, 2.5X, 2X AND 1.5-1.6X. THE FIRST TWO CYCLES INCLUDE A SATURATION TRANSITIONAL POINT AND DECAY PROCESS IN THE TERMINAL PORTION OF THE CYCLES. A SUDDEN NONLINEAR DROP IN THE LAST 0.5X TIME PERIOD OF THE 2.5X IS THE HALLMARK OF A SECOND CYCLE AND CHARACTERIZES THIS MOST RECOGNIZABLE CYCLE. AFTER THE NONLINEAR GAP DROP, THE THIRD CYCLE BEGINS. THIS MEANS THAT THE SECOND CYCLE CAN LAST ANYWHERE IN LENGTH FROM 2X TO 2.5X. THE THIRD CYCLE 2X IS PRIMARILY A GROWTH CYCLE WITH A LOWER SATURATION POINT AND DECAY PROCESS FOLLOWED BY A HIGHER SATURATION POINT. THE LAST 1.5-1.6X CYCLE IS PRIMARILY A DECAY CYCLE INTERRUPTED WITH A MID AREA GROWTH PERIOD. NEAR IDEAL FRACTAL CYCLES CAN BE SEEN IN THE TRADING VALUATIONS OF MANY COMMODITIES AND INDIVIDUAL STOCKS. MOST OF THE CYCLES ARE CARICATURES OF THE IDEAL AND CONFORM TO GOMPERTZ MATHEMATICAL TYPE SATURATION AND DECAY CURVES. THESE REGULAR, SIMPLE, AND ORDERED MATHEMATHICAL FRACTAL PATTERNS CONFER THE STATUS OF A SCIENCE ON THE SELF-ASSEMBLY ORDERED US AND GLOBAL ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM THE US ASSET-DEBT MACROECONOMIC SYSTEM IS SELF ORGANIZING AND CONFORMING TO A X/2.5X/2.5X/1.5X GREAT FRACTAL SERIES. A MAXIMUM GROWTH PATTERN OF 36/90/90 YEARS COMMENCED IN 1807 WITH GREAT NADIRS OF ASSET VALUATIONS IN 1842/43 AND 1932 AND A FINAL 90 YEAR EQUITY ASSET PEAK VALUATION IN NOVEMBER 2021. FOR THE LARGEST US EQUITY WILSHIRE WORTH 48- 49 TRILLION DOLLARS. THIS OCCURED 8 NOVEMBER 2021 WITH A PEAK VALUATION OF 48.95251 TRILLION. FOR THE NASDAQ PEAK VALUATION OCCURRED AT 16,212.2288 ON 22 NOVEMBER 2021. THE SPX PEAKED ON 4 JAN 2022 WITH A THREE DAY AVERAGE PEAK AT THE END OF DECEMBER 2021. THE 13 YEAR BLOW-OFF PEAK EQUITY ASSET VALUATION OCCURRING FROM 2009 TO 2021 HAS BEEN PRINCIPALLY CAUSED BY UNPRECEDENTED MONEY EXPANSION BY NECESSARY MANUFACTURED LOW-INTEREST-RATES MADE POSSIBLE BY THE INFUSION OF EX-NIHILO-MONEY CREATION BY GOLBAL CENTRAL BANKS AND SUPPORTED BY SOVEREIGNS. THIS MONEY CREATION AND EXTREME LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT WAS REQUIRED TO SUSTAIN A SYSTEM WHERE THE ACCUMULATED DEBT AND ACCUMULATED SOCIAL CONTRACT SPENDING WERE PROGRESSIVELY DISCONNECTED FROM THE ECONOMIC BASE GNP AND WORKER MASSES ONGOING WAGES. THE ANAMOLOUS LOW INTEREST RATES (AND IN FACT NEGATIVE GERMAN INTEREST RATES) HAVE CAUSED A HISTORICAL CUMULATIVE EQUITY. PROPERTY, AND COMMODITY ASSET BUBBLE. IN FEBRUARY 2020 THE BUBBLE TEMPORARILY DEVALUATED IN A 6/15/15 DAY :: X/2.5Y/2.5Y DAY DECAY FRACTAL SERIES. IN 2021 THE BUBBLE, REINFLATED IN A HISTORICALLY SHORT TIME INTERVAL TO EVEN TO A GREATER OVERVALUATION LEVEL WITH MASSIVE CENTRAL BANK MONEY CREATION AND COVID RELATED POLITICAL DEFICIT SPENDING, REACHED ITS AN EQUITY/COMMODITY BLOW-OFF VALUATION. AS OF THE CLOSE OF 22 NOVEMBER, 2021, THE NASDAQ'S FINAL BLOW-OFF SEQUENCE STARTING ON 4 OCTOBER 2021 WAS AN INTERPOLATED X/2.5X/2X/1.5 FOUR PHASE FRACTAL SERIES OF 7/17/14/10 DAYS. WITH THE NASDAQ'S HIGHEST EVER VALUATION ON DAY 14 OF THE 3RD FRACTAL 22 NOVEMBER 2021 AT 16,212.2288. THIS 4 PHASE SERIES WAS INTERPOLATED WITHIN A LARGER INTERMEDIATE LOW THREE PHASE DECAY SERIES STARTING ON 20 SEPT 2021 : 17-18(CURVILINEAR)/37/45 DAYS ENDING ON MONDAY 7 FEBRUARY 2022 (ASSUMING NO TRADING HALTS). THE 1807 CYCLICAL THREE PHASE MAXIMUM GROWTH FRACTAL SERIES HISTORY OF THE X/2.5X/2.5X :: 36/90/90 YEAR RISE TO THE NOVEMBER 2021 48.95 TRILLION DOLLAR WILSHIRE 5000 PEAK ASSET VALUATION REPRESENTING THE US HEGEMONY US INIATING FRACTAL 1790-1807 18 YEARS US FIRST GREAT FRACTAL. 1807-1842/43 36-37 YEARS US SECOND GREAT FRACTAL 1842/43-1932 90 YEARS US THIRD GREAT FRACTAL 1932- NOV 2021 90 YEARS (WILSHIRE PEAK) US FOUR GREAT FRACTAL 2021-2074 54 YEARS US THIRD 1ST SUBFRACTAL 1932-1982 51 YEARS 11-/21-22/21 YEARS US THIRD 2ND SUBFRACTAL TO WILSHIRE 2021 PEAK 40 YEARS 13/28 YEARS TO 202`1 PEAK VALUATION 40 YEARS EXPECTED US 4TH XY DECAY FRACTAL NOV 2021-2074 54 YEARS (FROM 8 NOVEMBER 2021 49 TRILLION WILSHIRE PEAK VALUATION) COMPLETE 1807 US GREAT FOUR PHASE FRACTAL SERIES : 36/90/90/54 YEARS. A POSSIBLE INTERPOLATED FRACTAL SEQUENCE FROM 1982: 13//28 TO 29 OF 29-33 // 33//20} YEARS FOR THE COMPLETION OF THE EXPECTED US 54 YEAR 4TH GREAT FRACTAL. THE 1982 13 YEAR SEQUENCE IS COMPOSED OF A 3/7/5 YEAR FRACTAL SERIES FROM 1982 TO 1994. THE 1994 CURRENT 29 YEAR SECOND FRACTAL SERIES WITH THE 1982 13 YEAR FIRST FRACTAL BASE IS COMPOSED OF TWO SUBFRACTLS: 3/7/8 YEARS ENDING IN 2009 AND A 3/6/7 YEAR SERIES WITH A PEAK WILSHIRE VALUATION IN 3/6/6 YEARS NOVEMBER 2021. THE COMPLETED 3/6/7 YEAR FRACTAL SERIES MAY BE 3/6/7/(4) YEARS. 4/8 =11 YEAR FIRST FRACTAL BASE: 11/22/22 YEARS = 53 YEARS (54 YEARS FROM THE WILSHIRE NOV 2021 PEAK VALUATION) FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOW: THE THIRD SUBFRACTAL OF THE US THIRD 40 YEAR 2ND SUBFRACTAL FOR THE US SPX: FIRST SUBFRACTAL 'A' SERIES A 5/12/10/7 31 MONTHS SECOND SUBFRACTAL B SERIES: B1 3/8/6 15 MONTHS B2 8/17/16/(10) 48 MONTHS (10 MONTH UPGOING) THE ECB POURED 2.6 TRILLION EURO IN THE EURO ECONOMY 2015-2018 WITH A SURGE AFTER THE ANNOUNCED PLAN AND OF THE BREXIT VOTE AND AGAIN AFTER THE ACTUAL VOT. B FRACTAL SERIES 62 MONTHS LATE 2015 ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED 2016 BREXIT REFERENDUM THIRD SUBFRACTAL SERIES C1 8/20/16 42 MONTHS . C2A 2/4/4 8 MONTHS C2B1/2 6/12 MONTHS OR 17 MONTHS: THE 12 MONTHSECOND SUBFRACTAL IS COMPOSED OF A 3/6/5 MONTH SERIES WITH NOB 2021, THE WILSHIRE'S PEAK AT MONTH 2 OF THE FINAL 5 MONTH SERIES. C2B3 = C3 10 MONTHS PART OF C2B {(6/12)/10}} SERIES AND C2 8/17/10 SERIES C FRACTAL SERIES TO NOVEMBER 2021 PEAK 62 MONTHS C2 SERIES 8/17/10 MONTHS TOTAL SERIES SINCE MARCH 2009: 31/62-63/62 (PEAK) 0F 65/65 TO 74 MONTHS. :: X/2X/2-2.5XY FRACTAL SERIES (WILSHIRE PEAK VALUATION AT MONTH 62 ON NOV 8 2021 FOR THE THIRD 2XY FRACTAL WITH A 1982 13/29 YEAR :: X/2-2.5X MASSIVE NONLINEAR 29 YEAR SECOND FRACTAL DECLINE ON 17 FEBRUARY 2022 2022 AND WITH AN EXPECTED FINAL LOW OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2022) CHINA'S SHANGHAI COMPOSITE: THE 1994 29 YEAR SECOND FRACTAL FOR THE NASCENT SHANGHAI COMPOSITE SECOND FRACTAL IS COMPOSED OF TWO FRACTAL SUBSERIES OF 3/7/4 YEARS STARTING 1994 AND 3/7/6/5 YEARS THE LATTER STARTING IN 2005. ON 16 OCTOBER 2007 THE SHANGHAI REACHED A VALUATION OF NEARLY 6100, DEPENDENT ON FACILITATED MASSIVE DEBT EXPANSION BY THE CHINESE CENTRAL BANK, OVERPRODUCTION AND OVERVALUATION IN THE REAL ESTATE SECTOR AND IN THE HIGH SPEED RAIL SECTOR. DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 14 YEARS THAT PEAK 6100 VALUATION HAS NOT BEEN EXCEEDED WITH A SHANGHAI COMP JAN 2022 AVERAGE VALUATION OF ABOUT 3500. IN THE LAST YEAR BAD DEBT, NEW CONSTRUCTION RESTRICTIONS, AND PREVIOUS OVERPRODUCTION AND OVERVALUATION IN THE CHINESE PROPERTY SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN A 90 PERCENT DEVALUATION IN SOME ITS MAJOR PROPERTY EQUITIES, EG, EVERGRANDE. ON 9 DECEMBER, 2021 FITCH STATED THAT EVERGRANDE HAD MISSED ITS INTEREST PAYMENTS (AFTER THE MONTH GRACE PERIOD) AND OFFICIALLY DEFAULTED ON ITS DEBT. THE COMING NONLINEAR FALL IN THE US HEGEMONY EQUITY VALUATIONS WILL BE MIRRORED THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN AND WESTERN WORLD'S EQUITIES. MORE THAN ANY OTHER TIME IN HISTORY, THE ASSET DEBT MACROECONOMY IS GLOBALLY LINKED AND INTERDEPENDENT. G. LAMMERT. UPDATED 13 FEBRUARY 2022 From the 2005 TEF Website ... The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves. G. Lammert This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .