Lammert Fractal Self-Similarities of Near Maximal Valuation Fractal Growth, Peak Valuation, and Subsequent Fractal Decay

The above daily SPX chart is from midday trading on 27 June 2025 where the SPX gapped to an opening new high valuation exceeding the previous 19 Feb 2025 high, completing a 10/25/24 day x/2.5x/2.5x near maximum growth fractal series. the terminal 4th subfractal of 7 days of the 5/11/10/7 days series would form the base for a 7/15-18/15-17/11 day decay fractal series similar to the 5/13/12/7 days 4-phase decay series from the 19 Feb 2025 previous peak valuation. From The 27 October 2023 SPX low the current fractal model is 4/8/9/3 of 6 months. The above daily 4-phase decay fractal series will complete the 6 month 4th fractal. The fractal model for the Nikkei from its Dec 2022 low is 11/21 of 24/13-14 months following a self similar x/2-2.5x/1.5x' series of March 2020 low of 8/17/11 months. Interestingly GBTC, Bitcoin's proxy, is following the Nikkei latter fractal pathway. The global macroecomomy is, de facto, following collaborative central bank MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, dynamics where central banks can create money and credit via digital computerized manipulation. This activity in the remote past would have been considered fraud, but no more. After a moderate to severe recession with real personal bankruptcies, caused by excessive debt load of private citizens, who, unlike central banks and their first credit user-partners cannot manipulate/create/borrow money, the system will reboot itself with ever higher inflation and wealth disparity.

The Crash 24 June 2025 Nadir : A 23 Oct 2023 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x :: 55/139/135/87 day 4-Phase ACWI Terminal Growth and Initial Crash Fractal Sequence.

An ACWI total global equity 7 April 2025 3 phase fractal series 10/25/12 of 20 days :: x/2.5x/2x completes the 27 October 2023 55/139/135/87 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x 4-phase fractal series.

The 135 day 3rd fractal peak for ACWI occurred on 18 Feb 2025 initiating the 87 day :: 1.6x 4th fractal with decay fractal series of a 3-phase of 4/8/6 days :: x/2.5x/1.5x followed by a 3/7/8/5 day 4-phase fractal series :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x reaching an initial nadir on 7 April 2025, or day 35 from the 18 February 2025 peak. The 7 April 2025 10/25/20 day fractal series, contributing 53 days to the 87 day 4th fractal contains both the 2025 peak valuation blow-off at 1256.575 on day 12, namely 10 June 2025 of the 20 day 3rd fractal and will proceed to include the nonlinear lower low 3rd fractal day 20 crash nadir on 24 June 2025.

A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Self-Assembly Lammert Fractal Growth and Decay of Valuations of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x and 1982 13/32 of 33/32-33/20 years x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself. On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above. Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the ACWI/SPX 27 October 2023 55/139/135-136 day (SPX-ACWI respectively) :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 18/19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 20 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series. With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.

Lammert Fractals: 27 October 2023 to 13-16 June 2025: ACWI: The Total Global Equity Index 4-phase 55/139/135/82-83 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Terminal Growth and Crash Fractal Series

The final 4-phase fractal series for the world equity index ACWI and completing a 4-phase 27 Oct 2023 to 13-16 June 2025 55/139/135/82-83 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series started on 6 May 2025 after a 3/8/8/5 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.6x 4-phase growth and decay fractal series starting from the nadir on 7 April 2025. On 6 May 2025 ACWI self-assembled in a 3-phase 5/10/10 day :: x/2x/2x blow-off gap higher valuation fashion with 6 June 2025, the 10th day of the 3rd fractal, reaching a high of 126.00, higher than the 18 Feb 2025 peak of about 124.3. The 6 May 2025 fractal series is expected to terminate nonlinearly with a nadir on 13 -16 June 2025, completing a 4-phase 5/10/10/6-7 day :: x/2x/2x/1.5x(1.5x')fractal series.

THE 3 FEBRUARY 2025 SPX PRIMARY CRASH FRACTAL SEQUENCE

The incipient crash fractal sequence of the 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series which includes the terminal 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x 19 February 2025 SPX peak valuation is a 3 February 14/32/26-32/20 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x’-2.5x’/1.5x’ 4-phase Lammert Fractal Series.

The Case for a Mathematical Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System: 27 October 2023 to 17 June 2025: A 55/139/136/83 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase Lammert Fractal Series

The Case for a Self-Assembly Mathematical Asset-Debt System The purpose of this website for the last 20 years has been to demonstrate that the asset-debt macroeconomic system is self-ordered by deterministic elegantly simple mathematical laws of time-based fractal growth and decay of its easily tradable assets. This fractal self assembly process is included as a primer at the end of the post.

The 1807 US hegemony commodity and equity valuations are self-ordered in a series of mostly nadirs and a 3rd fractal peak in a 4-phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 year fractal series with lows in 1807/1842-43/1932, a projected low in 2074, and a 90 year 3rd Fractal peak in November 2021. The 2020 US government 3.13 trillion dollar deficit spending that combated Covid represented 14.7 % deficit to GDP spending which was followed by a 2.78 trillion deficit spending or a 11.7% deficit to GDP spending in 2021. This historically high peacetime deficit spending (by comparison 1942 was 12.2%) resulted in a 90 year US 3rd fractal composite equity high in Nov 2021 and a subsequent higher high on 19 Feb 2025.. After an interim low on 27 October 2023, the SPX has followed a 3-phase maximum growth series of 55/139/136 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x with a peak valuation on 19 February 2025 and a secondary lower high peak on day 138 or 2.5x on 21 February 2025. If the SPX follows a similar fractal pattern as the US 1807 4-phase x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal pattern ending in 2074, the 27 Oct 2023 SPX pattern will end with a interim low on 17 June 2025 or 55/139/136/83 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x.

This is an interim low of a interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series ending in 2026.

The 139 day 2nd fractal in yellow below shows the characteristic 2nd nonlinear gapped lower lows between days 137 and 138 and between days 138 and 139 of its terminal portion just as described 20 years ago in the main page of the Economic Fractalist.

The 3rd (orange) and 4th(red) fractals are shown in more detail below. After a 3-phase 5 August 2024 18+/48/47 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x growth fractal series, the final blow-off for the SPX occurred in two sequential smaller 3-phase series: a 3/8/6 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal growth series and a final 3/6/5 day :: x/2x/1.6x series ending with a peak valuation on 19 February 2025.

The 4th fractal is shown below is a composite of 4 sequential fractal series: One: a 19 February 5/13/11/7 day 4-phase decay fractal series with an 11 day interim counter trend growth 3rd fractal and a 7 day 4th decay fractal with gapped lower low nonlinearity between days 4 and 5 and 5 and 6 ending with a nadir on day 7 and 7 April. Two and Three are counter-trend growth series of 2/4/4/3 days and 3/6/8 days ending on 9 May 2025. Four is expected to be similar to the 19 February 2025 4 phase series: a 9 May 4/10/10/6 days series with counter trend growth on the 3rd 10 day fractal and a crash 6 day 4th fractal ending 17 June 2024. See below.

Two interpolated three phase y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y fractal decay series are shown below:

A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Fractal Growth and Decay of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years and 1982 13/32 of 33/32/-33/20 years) credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself. On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above. Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 14-15 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series. With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.

AN ELEGANTLY SIMPLE 3 FEBRUARY 2025 FRACTAL REPLAY OF 1929?

The primary fractal decay series in August 1929 was a 12/29/27 day :: 3-phase x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series with a 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation on the 6th day of the 29 day 2nd fractal. (Below the 1929 12/29/27 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase Lammert decay series)

It is possible that a similar x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x decay series started on 3 February 2025 with the peak SPX valuation on 19 February 2025, day 12 of the 14 day 1st Fractal. The analogous 1929 3-phase fractal decay series is 14/32/31-33 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x.

The global macroeconomy is near the end of a 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x asset-debt credit (fractal) cycle ending in 2026. This is analogous to the 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x Asset Debt 1st and 2nd fractal cycle with a DJIA peak on 3 September 1929 and final nadir on 8 July 1932. On a long term scale the 1842-43 90 year 1929 to 1932 peak to nadir DJIA 90% devaluation has the characteristics of a 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse. The current 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x cycle with 32 of 33 years of its 2nd fractal completed and its ongoing 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse is interpolated within the larger US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal series ending in 2074 – 2077 with the 1932 90 year 3rd fractal peaking on 8 November 2021. (see primer below)

After the 2026 nadir, the follwing 33 years will be characterized by further US financialization of debt, new money, and new credit creation and development of new financial instruments such as 50 year loans. While the current administration’s policies will promote a departure from the dollar to other possible exchange items, America’s prior defense spending, role as a nuclear superpower, and AI and robotics capabilities, will likely carry the fraying US hegemony for another two or three decades.  The peak for the SPX of the 1982 13/33 year cycle occurred on 19 Feb 2025 with the final lower high on 21 February or day 138 of a 27 October 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum 3-phase growth series.

A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Fractal Growth and Decay of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years and 1982 13/32 of 33/32/-33/20 years) credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself. On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above. Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 14-15 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series. With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line.

The SPX 27 October 2023 to 19 Feb 2025 Final Peak Valuation Growth: x/2.5x/2.5x :: 55/139/136 days; The Interpolated 12 Feb 2025 11/28/28/16-18 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-Phase Decay/Decay/Reflexic Growth/ Crash Decay Fractal Series Ending 6-10 June 2025

The global macroeconomy is near the end of a 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x asset-debt credit (fractal) cycle ending in 2026. This is analogous to the 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x Asset Debt 1st and 2nd fractal cycle with a DJIA peak on 3 September 1929 and final nadir on 8 July 1932. On a long term scale the 1842-43 90 year 1929 to 1932 peak to nadir DJIA 90% devaluation has the characteristics of a 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse. The current 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x cycle with 32 of 33 years of its 2nd fractal completed and its ongoing 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse is interpolated within the larger US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal series ending in 2074 - 2077 with the 1932 90 year 3rd fractal peaking on 8 November 2021. (see primer below) After the 2026 nadir, the follwing 33 years will be characterized by further US financialization of debt, new money, and new credit creation and development of new financial instruments such as 50 year loans. While the current administration's policies will promote a departure from the dollar to other possible exchange items, America's prior defense spending, role as a nuclear superpower, and AI and robotics capabilities, will likely carry the fraying US hegemony for another two or three decades. The peak for the SPX of the 1982 13/33 year cycle occurred on 19 Feb 2025 with the final lower high on 21 February or day 138 of a 27 October 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum 3-phase growth series. A logical conclusion to this series would be a 1.5x 4th decay fractal of 82-83 days or 1.5 times the 27 Oct 2023 1st fractal base of 55 days.

The final fractal series from 12 Feb 2025 is a 11/28/28/16-18 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4 phase fractal series. The 1st and 2nd series are deteriorating decay fractals(as denoted by the red horizontal bars), the 28 3rd fractal is a countertrend growth fractal peaking on day 28 and the 4th 1.5-1.6x fractal of 16-18 days is a decay fractal with the crash devaluation in the terminal final days. This would put the nadir of the 11/28/28/16-18 day series on 6,9, or 10 June 2025.

The final 16-18 day 4th decay fractal may start as the concluding part of the 3rd fractal blow-off, both represented by a 3-phase 5/3 of 10-11/10-11 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal series with the first 7 days representing the terminal portion of the 28 day 3rd fractal and the last 16-18 days of the fractal series representing the 4th decay fractal. This 3-phase series could also be configured 5/12-13/7-8 days :: x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. With money being repatriated from the US equity markets and with new deficit spending for NATO military hardware and expansion, it is possible that the German DAX will blow-off to valuations near to or exceeding its prior high. The total SPX 80-82 day fractal series is about 17 weeks in length with an expected final low(equivalent to 8 July 1932) in about 17/34/34/ 20-25 weeks :: x/2x/2x/1.5x'. Below is a primer on deterministic self-assembly asset-debt time based quantitative fractal macroeconomics copied from a previous posting. A Primer on Quantitative Time-based Fractal Growth and Decay of The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System’s Composite Equities Qualitatively …on the longest time-unit cycles (years) (e.g. 1807 36/90/90/54-57 years and 1982 13/32 of 33/32/-33/20 years) credit expands via governmental, corporate, and citizen debt; assets are produced and over-produced , overvalued and over-consumed; consumers reach maximum debt loads; the population of possible traders/invested are fully invested and composite equity asset valuations reach a singular fractal time-unit (minute, hour, day, week, month) peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay; recessions occur with weakening demand, interest rates fall; excess debt undergoes default and restructuring; individual and corporate bankruptcies occur; and composite equity (and commodity) asset valuations eventually reach a singular fractal time-unit nadir. The cycle thereafter repeats itself. On smaller time-unit fractal cycles (quarters, months, weeks, days, hours, 15-minute/ 5 and 1-minute) : trader/investor population saturation of asset buying occurs ending in a transient peak valuation .. followed by trader/investor population saturation end selling resulting in a transient nadir valuation. These peaks and nadirs occur in one of the two quantitative fractal patterns as above. Empirically composite equity asset valuation growth and decay cycles occur in 2 modes(laws) of mathematical self-organizing, self-assembly time-based fractal series: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped nonlinear lower lows between the 2nd fractal’s terminal 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped nonlinear lower lows can be observed in weekly valuation units for the DJIA between 1929 and 1932, the terminal portion of the US 90 year 2nd fractal; within the last three day before the terminal 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low occurring in the 27 October 2023 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x valuation maximum growth series ending 19 February 2025: and can be expected within last 14-15 months on a daily and weekly basis of the current 32 of 33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series. With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal high or final lower high peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with all intervening valuationsWhy does the asset-debt macroeconomic system self-organize to the maximum length x/2.5x/2.5x fractal time-based growth length? It is because equities represent the system’s best available investment with the highest return with superiority over other held assets in terms of possible dividends, valuation growth, tradability, tax-advantaged capital gains, corporate advantaged debt acquisition, and corporate advantaged buy-back legislation above the connecting nadir trend-line.

Mayday ... Yet Another 3-Phase Lammert Primary Fractal Crash Decay Series Model ... 3 Feb 2025 to 12 June 2025

3 Feb 2025 to 12 June 2025 21/42 of 45/27 days :: x/2-2.5x/1.5x'

What is the SPX 1982 to 2026 13/33 Year Primary 1st Fractal Decay Series?

The 1982 to 2026 13/33 year :: x/2.5x fractal series will end in a nonlinear slow fashion like the 1807 36/90 year fractal series ended in 1932. The DJIA peaked on 3 September 1929 and had its nadir valuation on 8 July 1932. The final fractal growth series for the 1982 13/33 year :: x/2.5x fractal series started on 27 Oct 2023 and was a 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase growth series peaking on 19 February 2025. An alternative primary decay fractal series to the preceding post must be considered as more likely and is a 3-phase 19/35 of 40/24 day :: x/2x/1.6x' fractal decay series starting on 12 February 2025 . See below.

In this fractal series decay model, a large nonlinear drop will occur during the final day or two of a 5 day 4th fractal of a 7 April 2025 21 day 3/8/7 of 7-8/5 day 4-phase fractal series which follows a preceding subseries of a 20 day 4-phase 3/7/8/5 days starting on 11 March 2025.

Not So Smart .. Occam’s Razor and 1982 to 2025 Terminal Fractal Growth: New Projected Initial First Fractal Decay Nadir: 13-19 June 2025.

The global Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System is undergoing a 1982 13/32 of 33 year 1st and 2nd Fractal nonlinear collapse which will end in late 2026. Even before the Hoover 2.0 tariffs and the resumption of college loan debt payments, average American consumers were tapped out and hard-working Chinese savers were already decimated by collapsing property valuations. The terminal portion of the 1994 SPX 33 year 2nd Fractal began on 27 October 2023 with a self assembly 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x near maximum growth fractal series peaking on the 136th day of the 3rd Fractal: 19 February 2025. The 139 day 2nd fractal shows characteristic 2nd fractal gapped lower low nonlinearity in the extreme terminal time area (2-2.5x)between days 137 and 138 and between days 138 and 139. The natural 4 phase evolution of the 27 Oct 2023 3-phase growth series: x/2.5x/2.5x series is x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x or 55/139/136/82-83 days. The graphs below shows the fractal relationship of the 3 February 2025 sequential 8/19/20 day and 7 April 2025 10/20-22/20-22 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x and the interpolated 80-84 day 19 February 2025 4-phase 5/11/13/8 day fractal decay series sequentially followed by a 7 April 10/20-22/20-22 day 3-phase fractal decay series ending 13 June to 19 June 2025.

With an 18 week 1st decay fractal, an 18/36-38/36-38/22 week 4 phase decay series would place the SPX 3rd fractal low valuation near the end of December 2026. The chances for the America hegemony to have a 32 year resurgence will be greatly improved following the 2026 midterms.

The SPX/QQQ/Shanghai-Composite 4-Phase Terminal Growth and Incipient Crash Fractal Series Starting on 13 January 2025 and ending 27 May 2025 - Vice 3 February 2025 and 24 April 2025

The SPX/QQQ identified 4-phase 3 February 2025 8/19/20/13 day :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.6x terminal growth and crash decay fractal series model failed to coincide with the asset-debt system's deterministic self assembly valuation growth and decline pathway. On further review the 3 February 2025 fractal model is interpolated within a larger SPX/QQQ 13 January 2025 13/30/31 of 33/20 day 4-phase terminal growth and initial crash fractal decay series. The 33 day 3rd fractal ends on a lower high on Tuesday 29 April 2025 with a 20 day 4th crash fractal ending on 27 May 2025 and an expected final low in December 2026. The 2nd 30 day fractal contains the 1982 SPX 13/32 year peak valuation high on 19 February 2025 and the 21 February 2025 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x lower high valuation from a terminal fractal growth series starting on 27 October 2023. For the Shanghai composite the 13 January 2025 4 phase fractal series is 12-13/26-33/26-33/18 days with 8 days of the terminal 2nd and the initial 3rd fractal mathematically shared for an average 1st, 2nd, and lower high 3rd fractal of 12-13/29.5-30/29.5-30 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x The 4th crash decay fractal with a 2nd fractal of 30 days length and an ideal 1st fractal base of 12 days would have a 1.5x length of 18 days which balances the Shanghai Composite's 3 days of stock holidays in early May with the SPX's Memorial day on 26 May 2025 ending with a low on 27 May 2025. The Shanghai Composite is following a 4-phase December 2018 16/32/31 of 32/20 month :: x/2x/2x/1.5x' Lammert fractal series with an expected low in December 2026. The timing of the expected lows will have a serious impact on the United States midterm elections of 2026.

The 3 Feb 2025 Lammert 4-phase Fractal Incipient Growth and CRASH Decay Series

Add 1.6y or 13 days to the previous post's predicted SPX incipient 3 February 2025 3-phase y/2-2.5y/2.5y :: 8/19/20 day fractal decay series, and a 3 February 2025 4-phase y/2-2.5y/2.5y/1.6y :: 8/19/20/13 day fractal decay series is the newly predicted incipient fractal crash series. From Sunday March 30, there are 18 more trading days until an initial primary low valuation. It is the opinion of this observer, that the timing of this initial 4-phase crash fractal series is at the end a major asset-debt credit cycle and near the end of maximum SPX timed-based fractal growth, i.e. from 27 October 2023 to the peak SPX valuation on 19 February 2025, a 55/139/136 day :: {x/2.5x/(nearly 2.5x)} was completed. The interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year :: 1st and 2nd fractal series is expected to have a nonlinear ending with a nadir in 2025 or 2026. See below. The incipient crash will likely - with wide-spread market experts' post hoc ergo propter hoc logic - be attributed to the new administration's radical and chaotic policy changes with regard to long-standing alliances, new interest in colonialism, new tariffs, habeas corpus suspensions, non merit-based cabinet selections, use of DOJ in vendetta prosecutions, non-congressional authorized governmental and institutional budget and personnel cuts, et. al.

The previous 3 February 2025 3-phase Crash decay fractal is shown below:

The 3 February 4-phase growth and decay fractal series : 8/19/20/13 days with peak valuation on 19 February and in the 19 day second fractal is shown below.

Please review the previous posting for a primer on the time-based fractal self-assembly laws of global asset-debt system.

THE INCIPIENT 3-PHASE LAMMERT 2025 CRASH FRACTAL DECAY SERIES

The diversity in the respective evolutions of quantitative fractal valuation growth and decay of the European(STOXX 600), United States, Chinese including HangSeng, Japanese and Indian composite equities, which account for more than 85% percent of total global market equity share, allows the pinpointing the US composite equities primary incipient daily decay crash fractal series. Over the last several weeks, this web site has presented several different incipient primary fractal decay models similar to the 12/29/27 day :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y decay fractal series in 1929 with the 3 Sept (DJIA) 1929 peak valuation contained in the 29 day 2nd fractal. The 1929 crash occurred near the terminal portion of an 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with nadir valuations in 1842-43 and 1932. 2nd fractals are characterized (as noted in the 2005 opening page) by nonlinear gapped lower lows. There was a 90% devaluation in the terminal portion of the 90 year 2nd fractal from its 1929 peak to its 1932 nadir valuation.

The 2025 crash will occur in an interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series with lows in 1994 and a 2nd nonlinear low expected in 2025-2026 near the terminal portion of its 32-33 year 2nd fractal and after its 19 Feb 2025 high valuation. This 1982 interpolated fractal sequence is occurring in a 1807 36/90/90/54 year fractal series which is expected to end in 2074. Below is a primer review of the fractal time-based laws of the self ordering asset-debt macroeconomy’s growth and decay valuations of its composite assets. Credit expands, assets are produced and over-produced and overvalued and over-consumed; composite asset valuations reach a singular peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay, recessions occur, excess debt undergoes default and restructuring, and composite asset valuations reach a nadir. The cycle repeats itself. Empirically the cycles occur in 2 mathematical time- ordered and self-organizing fractal series manners: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-6x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped lower lows between the 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped lower lows can be seen in weekly units between 1929 and 1932 of the US 90 year 2nd fractal, before the 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low and can be expected within last few months of the 32-33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.) With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series whose fractal grouping is determined by its terminal peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with intervening valuation above the connecting nadir trend-line. The recent incipient crash fractal series decay models provided over the last several week have all lacked the requirements defining fractal groupings as described above. The final SPX growth series started on 27 October 2023 and was a 55/139/136 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum growth series peaking on 19 February 2025 akin to 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation.

The incipient crash 3-phase fractal decay series for the SPX is a 3 February 8/19/12 of 20 day :: y/2-2.5y/2.5y fractal decay series. Like 1929 the peak valuation on 19 February 2025 is contained in the (19 day) 2nd fractal. Trend lines defining fractal groupings are consistent with this model.

A FRIDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2025 5/13/9 OF 13 DAY 3-PHASE :: Y/2.5Y/2.5Y FRACTAL DECAY SERIES AS THE INITIAL DAILY CRASH 1ST FRACTAL

All composite global equities suggest a major crash during the next 4 trading days. A review of the SPX 55/139/136 day fractal growth series spanning the 27 October 2023 low to the 19 February 2025 peak valuation with the characteristic 139 day 2nd fractal terminal gapped nonlinear lower low valuations ending in the 5 Aug 2024 nadir suggests yet another quantitative 3-phase incipient daily decay pattern. A 19 Feb 2025 peak valuation 5/11/9 of 13 day decay fractal series pattern or alternatively a 14 Feb 5/13/13 day decay fractal series sets 27 or 29 days as the 1st decay fractal equally 6-7 weeks for a 6-7/12-15/10-14 weekly decay fractal series ending in Sept 2025 with a possible lower low in 2026.

The SPX 12 February 2025 9/23/18-23 day CRASH 3-Phase y/2.5y/2-2.5y Fractal Decay Series

The asset-debt macroeconomic system operates in a deterministic self-ordering self-assembly fashion, following quantitative time based elegantly-simple fractal progression.

The 1929 DJIA crash was self-organized a 3-phase 12/29/27 day :: time-based y/2-2.5y/2-2.5 fractal series. After a 23 October 2023 self assembly near maximum growth of 55/139/136 days :: x/2.5x/2.5x; the 1st decay fractal of 9 days occurred in an interpolated fashion in the terminal portion of the a self-ordering 13 January 5/11/10/7 day :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series, which contained the 136 day 3rd fractal SPX high valuation on 19 Feb 2025. The 2025 SPX CRASH y/2.5y/2-2.5y 3-phase decay series started on 12 Feb 2025 and is composed of 9/23/18-23 days. The 1st 9 day fractal is composed of a 2/5/4 day fractal sub-series. The 23 day 2nd fractal is composed of two fractal sub-series a 2/5/4/3 day or 11 day sub-series and a 13 day 3/6/6 day sub-series. The SPX Crash is part of a global crash of asset overvaluation, asset over-supply, and excessive corporate, governmental, and personal debt related to respectively tax revenues, sustainable corporate profits, falling wages and jobs relative to consumer cost.

19 Feb 2025 SPX Peak Valuation and the Initial 2025 Global Equity CRASH Fractal Series Model

The US asset-debt macroeconomic hegemony's composite equity class peaked in November 2021 completing a x/2.5x/2.5x 1807, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractal 36/90/90 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum peak valuation. What propelled it to its new 27 October 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x SPX 19 Feb 2025 and 21 Feb 2025 peak and secondary valuation - about 30% higher than the Nov 2021 peak?

The answer is US federal deficit to GDP % spending which in 2020 was nearly 14.7% and greater than that % in 1942, America's first year in WW2. Deficit spending was 11.7% in 2021 and has continued to be historically high at 5.3 to 6.3% in subsequent years. Even frozen with the CR at last year's level, recession will place the % at a higher level than 2024. The current fractal decay model takes in consideration the fractal evolution of the HangSeng, Shanghai, European, and Nikkei markets.

Within this model a prior interpolated Feb 19 2025 3/8/8 day decay series model predicted and posted on 28 Feb 2025 is observable. This prior model that does not meet the underlying trend line requirement that defines fractals. See old model below:

The Wilshire has already lost over 5 trillion of its worth since its Feb 2025 peak. The current 4 phase SPX decay fractal series model of 7/14 of 16-17/17/11 days :: y/2-2.5y/2-2.5y/1.5y matches the weekly Wilshire 4 phase decay series shown below. Decay starts on week 29(or technically week 30 noting that the first week of 5 August 2024 was upgoing) of the 3rd growth fractal of a 13-/30/30 week :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3- phase fractal growth series. A 2/3 of 4/4/3 week :: y/2y/2y/1.5y 4-phase decay fractal is observable. Note that the 27 Oct 2023 to 5 Aug 2024 trend line has been breached and already there is a nonlinear gapped lower low ON A WEEKLY chart. The gapped lower low so early in the fractal series and on a weekly time unit basis portends severe devaluation near term.

As a reminder, the interpolated primary series is a 1982 13/32-33 year :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series.

The Chinese Property Bubble nonlinear collapse The Chinese property market has about 100% excess capacity; at the height of the 2008 US housing bubble there was about a 5% US excess capacity. The Shanghai property index (and HangSeng and Shanghai Composite) have paralleled the SPX since Oct 2023 in a declining 3 phase weekly fractal growth progression of 13+/34/27 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x concluding a perfect declining growth fractal series and at the fractal timing for 4th fractal 1.5x devaluation. The 27 week 3rd fractal growth was propelled by a huge injection of CCP credit/capital into the banking system. This was a you-tube that was posted on 14 March 2025; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrEULvhIw_s

THE US SPX: FRACTAL DECAY BEGINS IN TERMINAL FRACTAL GROWTH: A SHARED 7-DAY 12 TO 24 FEBRUARY END GROWTH AND INCIPIENT DECAY FRACTAL SERIES.

The US Hegemonic Asset-Debt System is following a 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-6x self-assembly 4-phase growth and decay fractal series. Credit expands, assets are produced and over-produced and overvalued and over-consumed; composite asset valuations reach a peak valuation and thereafter undergo decay, recessions occur, excess debt undergoes default and restructuring, and composite asset valuations reach a nadir. The cycle repeats itself. Empirically the cycles occur in 2 mathematical time-ordered and self-organizing fractal series manners: a 4-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x and a 3-phase fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x In the 4-phase fractal series sequential elements are termed: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th fractals and in the 3-phase fractal series: the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fractals. The 2nd fractal is characterized by terminal gapped lower lows between the 2x and 2.5x time period. (These gapped lower lows can be seen in weekly units between 1929 and 1932 of the US 90 year 2nd fractal, before the 5 August 2024 139 day 2nd fractal low and can be expected within last few months of the 32-33 year 2nd fractal of the interpolated 1982 13/32-33 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.) With the exception of the 3rd fractal in the 4-phase series with is determined by its peak valuation, fractals (fractal groupings) are determined by the nadirs of the first and last time unit in the grouping with intervening valuations above the connecting nadir trend-line. For 1807 36/90/90/54 year fractal series, nadirs occurred in 1807, 1842-43, and July 1932 defining the 1st and 2nd fractals with a 3rd fractal 90 year peak valuation in Nov 2021. World War 2 and post Breton Woods American dominant manufacturing growth and dominant currency disrupted equity composite nadir valuations from 1932 to 1982 with a resultant 11/21/21 year :: approximate x/2x/2x 3-phase fractal growth series.

To complete the 1807 36/90/90/54 year US 4-phase fractal series, an interpolated 1982 13/32-33/32-33/20 year x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-6x 4-phase fractal series is expected. Credit growth from 1982 has been propelled by cascadingly lower US fed fund interest rates, a 2000 speculative internet bubble and a 2008 housing bubble, post event recession corporate and Covid citizen bailouts, massive governmental deficit spending and credit/money growth accommodation from the US central bank which has allowed low US unemployment levels to purchase foreign goods made with 10-25% of US labor cost. The massive citizen Covid bailout propelled the SPX to its 90 year 3rd fractal high in Nov 2021 which was contained within a March 2020 8+/24/14 :: x/2.5x/1.6x 3 phase fractal growth series followed by a 27 Oct 2023 55/139/138 day :: x/2.5x/2.5x maximum peak valuation growth fractal series The last 7 days of the 138 day 3rd fractal contains the SPX 19 Feb 2025 peak valuation which forms a 7 day base for a 7/18/18 day 3-phase crash decay fractal series.

The Great 2025 Global Equity Crash: Ten Year Notes and Equity Torsades de Points completed 14 February 2025

It is hypothesis of this website that easily tradable assets, both nondebt and debt entities, grow and decay in an optimal and deterministic time-based self-assembly fractal manner; either in a three phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/1.5 to 2.5x or in a four phase fashion: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. Unraveling of the US hegemony started in the 1990's by career US politicians, lobbied and supported by US corporations who favored greater profits with foreign-based manufacturing and inexpensive labor. The US hegemony is following a 4 phase 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series for equities and commodities after having an incipient 18 year fractal base from 1790 to 1807. Since 1982 US equities are following an interpolated 13/32 of 32-33/32-33/20 year four phase fractal series ending about 2054 . In this four phase series expected is a great 32-33 year second fractal crash occurring in 2025-2026. Since 2000 2-3 % average GDP annual growth has been sustained by an average of 5 % GDP-deficit spending with the US central bank, US citizens and institutions, and the world subsidizing US debt. Until 2020, low-labor cost imported manufactured goods exchanged for US farm goods, US energy, and US debt maintained a low inflationary environment. With the increasing cost of foreign labor - and more recently the US adopting an isolationist posture, the abrupt ice-cold alienation of former allies, and the threatened and real imposition of new tariffs - both support of US debt growth from other than the US sources and the expectation of a low inflationary environment will qua;itatively wither. A March 2020 3-phase 8+/24/14 month :: x/2.5x/1.6x fractal growth series ended on 27 October 2023. On February 14 2025 a new high for ACWI, the 115 trillion dollar ETF proxy, was observed with a tiny blow-off gap opening at the beginning of the trading day with an end trading valuation near the low of the day (see the ten day 15-minute unit ACWI chart at the bottom of the page.) : 14 February completed nested fractal growth series: an 8 December 2024 7/14/18/11 day :: x/2x/2.5x/1.5x inverse growth fractal series: a 5/11/10 day a/2-2.5x/2x growth fractal series: a 5 Aug 2024 24/53/59 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series: and a 27 Oct 2023 55/139/134 day :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series. See below.

TNX, the US Ten Year Note interest rate came within 0.2 % of its 23 week third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline. It is possible for TNX to touch the third fractal lower interest rate growth trendline on Tuesday or Wed, 18 or 19 February 2025 with a final 2/5/4-5 day growth fractal of ACWI completing a 5/11/11-12 day fractal series rather than the current 5/11/10 day series.

Hard Landing Ahead: The 5 August 2024 Final Fractal Growth: 24/53/49 of 49-52 days :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x

The 2025 Smoot-Hawley 2.0 new tariffs and announced counter tariffs are coming at the precise time of maximum fractal global peak or secondary peak equity valuation with 24 months of declining manufacturing data and re-inversion of long term debt minus short term debt yields after 2 years of steep inversion, greater than 1929.

Smoot-Hawley 2.0 is the last ditch populist response to the 1992 Perot 'Giant Sucking Sound' of American manufacturing jobs going south, west and north. The nationalistic Chinese government has consistently fostered growth of manufacturing jobs for Chinese workers in contrast to the US government who has supported election-donor US corporations (and individuals), the latter primarily interested in profit alone. Both US entities were not focused in a national strategy to maintain and grow America's manufacturing might. The US government has deficit spent at an annual average rate of greater than 5-7% of GDP to maintain a 2.5% GDP growth, while the US central bank printed dollars and sold debt to accommodate the US's growing trade deficits and an enlarging US service-based economy. The container-ship imports were primarily purchased by two American family workers vice one worker. With the debt load of US younger workers and the cost of housing with current interest rates, the average age of US home buyers is now 56. After 30 years of establishing international supply chains and a linked global macroeconomy, the decoupling effect of US tariffs and the counter tariffs will result in a much greater global effect than the early 1930's. With the ongoing Chinese housing bubble still undergoing collapse and a probable further decline in Chinese domestic consumption, a very hard landing global recession is coming.