Lammert Quantum Macroeconomics: 16-17/43 of 43/43 days or Decay Model E

The American economy - and hence with its weighted value, the global macroeconomy - is contracting. The American economy that has been so heavily dependent on massive debt growth with primary gains over the last 5 years in the real estate and financial debt industry sectors came to a net worth climax likely on July 19, 2007 when the combined commodity, real estate, bond, and equity markets' worth reached a zenith composite valuation level. Perhaps aided with the lowered interbank interest rates by the Federal Reserve and perhaps of its own 20/50/40 day intrinsic maximum growth process, the 15 trillion dollar Wilshire made a final predicted high on 11 October 2007. Equity asset values unsupported by further debt expansion at the consumer level are undergoing devolution. Job numbers related to real estate, durable good production, disposable income driven entertainment, financial transactions, sales, et. al. - are all contracting in a macroeconomy defined by limited wage growth, consumer saturation, debt saturation, asset overvaluation,and bad loans undergoing default. How does this asset overvaluation - consumer saturation macroeconomy compare to 1929 and 2000? The country and the world are about to find out. How severe will the devolution be and how effective will a sub one percent Fed Fund rate and less than 1 per cent treasury rate be in propping up the equity markets? By the US 1930's experience with T-bills approaching 0 per cent and the more recent Japanese experience, it is not likely the Federal Reserve will have a determining influence. The value of surviving US dollars will increase relative to assets undergoing devolution. Gold which has undergone a recent blow-off has completed a 7/17/14 year fractal starting about 1970. The mid portion of the 14 year third fractal has shown this collectible's substantial weakness and is harbinger of future valuation.

For the Wilshire December 2007 concluded a 11/27/27 month maximum saturation growth fractal x/2.5x/2.5x starting in October 2002. The Wilshire's weekly count 'borrowed' 2 weeks from the concluding portion of a three phase decay fractal starting in 1999 for a 46/115/92 week fractal with week 92 of the third fractal within a few days of the 19 July 2007 averaged daily high. Week 115 (2.5x) of the maximum saturation area of the third fractal rests between the two final weekly highs at weeks 114 and 116 correlating to the final daily lower highs on 12 and 26 December 2007, respectively. So what is the necessary quantitative fractal decay pattern? Model D from this site is still viable at 16-17/42 of 43/43 days as of 11 January with Monday 14 January (vice 12 January,a nontrading day) as the possible nonlinear break point day. At the close of 11 January 2008 and on a 15 minute fractal basis the Wilshire has recently followed a perfect 12/30/25 :: x/2.5x/2x 15 minute unit pattern - the base borrowing (3) 15 minute units from the preceding decay fractal. The 24th 15 minute unit of the third fractal was higher than the 25th unit. Will Monday 14 January day 43 of a potential 16-17/43 of 43/43 day decay fractal represent a nonlinear break point day - or is it the beginning of a few day growth area and consistent with Model E?

Model E for the Wilshire: From the 16 August low a 17-18/44/34/25-26 x/2.5x/2x/1.5x completed fractal with day 25-26 of the 4th (decay) fractal representing an interim low, prior to yet another deteriorating growth and much lower low decay sequence of perhaps 41 weeks in length. Interestingly the 17-18/44/34/26 model matches the duration of an averaged 20/50/50 day decay sequence starting on 16 August with a second fractal low on 21 November(still slight higher than the 26 November low)

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