Saturday, July 5, 2008

150 Year Second Fractal Nonlinearity and The Lammert Macroeconomic Fractal Series: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x

The Wilshire closed at 12815.47 on 3 July 2008, near its 22 month lows. Composite equity valuation decay will follow a quantum fractal decay pattern. What is that fractal pattern? Will the current fractal decay pattern time frame and final low be mathmatically consistent with the larger growth and decay pattern starting in October 2002? Will the US 150 year composite equity second fractal's terminal nonlinear area be incorporated within a larger nearly perfect quantum fractal pattern whose evolution and valuation saturation limits intuitively is casually determined by systemic unpayable massive debt? This historical debt evolved by unregulated credit expansion, financial engineering, and uncompetitive interest rates and taxed savings acoounts and misrepresented by the term 'investing' vice the real term 'speculating' has resulted in oversupply, over ownership, over valuation, and gross dysequilibrium between the jobs and wages needed in the real economy and the the ongoing capacity to service the artificially created excessive amount of debt. The macroeconomy composite equity valuation is now evolving under such conditions and is within the terminal devaluation area were debt and entitlements wlll undergo synchronized default. The October 2002 x/2.5x/2x/1.5x quantum fractal is a 11/27/22/13 of 17-18 month evolution and a 46/115/92/ 51 of 69 week evolution. The 92nd week of the third fractal contained the 19 July 2007 high and a reflexive 20/50/40 day fractal yielded the predicted 11 October 2007 interday nominal all time Wilshire high. Is first decay base 13 weeks vice 23 weeks? This fractal decay base would generate a decay sequence of 13/32-33/32-33 weeks vice the 23/48/48-50 week sequence...In this mathematical construct the second decay fractal could be composed of a 24 and a 9 week fractal with a low at the end of the 9 week fractal substantially higher than expected because of massive and historical federal reserve intervention with total rate cuts of over 2 percent for the January -March 08 time period with contemporary financial guarantees involving the collapse of the fifth largest US investment agency. This short 9 week fractal stills serves as a potential base for a final 9/17-18/17-18 week fractal with the week of 7-11 July 08 having a nonlinear movement with the Wilshire on 4 July 08 at 38-39/77 of 78 days with 39 days starting on 22-23 January 08 and ending on 17 March 08 composing the short 9 week base . The 2x end of second fractal at day 77 of 78 is near the low valuation level of the first fractal with decay nonlinearity expected between 2x and 2.5x or between day 78 and day 95. With the deteriorating second fractal valuation level, nonlinearity is expected in the ealy range of the 78 to 95 day 2x to 2.5x timw window..
17-18 additional weeks of a third decay fractal 9/17-18/17-18 weeks would take the decay pattern to a low consistent with the terminal portion of the larger 46/115/92/51 of 69 week fractal;progression starting in October 2002 and provide strong support of an operative self limiting mathematical quantum formula defining the limits and governing the complex macroeconomic system. The valuation devolution within the final third fractal of 17-18 weeks would reflect a necessary massive repudiation of debt and entitlement payments in the global debt expansion system which has fostered asset oversupply and overvaluation and has caused a facade of GDP growth. GM is likely to go the way of New Century during this next 18 week time period, with a final fractal pattern of 34/69/34 weeks, a fractal pattern elegantly similar to the pattern composing its first 34 week fractal a 9/18/9 wek pattern. Fractally interestingly, gold as a marker for commodity speculation has a potential 11/28/10 pf 28 week decay fractal which would match the expected composite equity low. On a daily basis as of 4 July gold and gold stocks are following a final 9/23/16 of potentially 18 day growth fractal. How low denominated in US dollars will the old yellow relic fall in the next 18 weeks supported by a plummeting number of surviving dollars?

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