Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Lammert Saturation Self Assembly Saturation Macroeconomics:Peak US Sovereign Interest Rates: 19-20 October 2023; Equities, Commodities,Gold Crash low: 2 November 2023

Within the 1807 US Hegemonic self-ordering Great 4-phase Fractal Series of 36/90/90/54 years ::x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x with its 36 year subfractal (1) low in 1842-43; its 90 year subfractal(2) low on 8 July 1932, its 90 year subfractal (3) high on 8 November 2021 - an interpolated subfractal (1) and subfractal (2) of a 13/30 year fractal series began on 11-12 August of 1982.
At the terminal portion of the 30 year subfractal (2) an interpolated monthly fractal series began in March 2020 with Covid QE near zero interest rates and massive money infusion and distribution. After a most austere central bank QT secondary to consumer price inflation, the fractal series has completed its x/2.5x/2-2.5x growth at 8/20/17 months.
The final 3/6 month fractal series of the 17 month subfractal (3) is composed of a 13 March 2023 52/104-130 day subfractal(1) and subfractal (2) series ::x/2-2.5x. Today 25 October 2023(before trading Subfractal (2)has completed day 106 and is witin the 2x to 2.5x window of nonlinearity that 104 to 130.
Lammert subfractal (2) asset valuation nonlinearity can occur with the 26-32 year and 104-130 day subfractal (2)'s windows of the 11-12 August 1982 and 13 March 2023subfractal(1) and subfractal(20 respective series.
Within the last half of the 104 to 130 day subfractal (2), two sequential 4-hour unit 3 phase decay fractal series are identfied.
Starting 130PM EST 18 October 2023 Subfractal(2) is expected to nonlinearly decline in 4/10/10 4-hour unit :: x/2.5x/2.5x fractal decay pattern completing subfractal (2) on the 113th day. ie. 2 November 2023. All asset classes will undergo synchronous nonlinear devaluation to 2 November 2023 except held sovereign US debt which will rise in value (lower interest rates). A 20/44/44 month :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x growth fractal series for Bitcoin in USD that started in January 2015 with a final lower high gapped peak on 24 October 2023 will undergo a crash devaluation. Cryptocurrencies (use GBTC as a proxy) have undergone a 26 September 2023 short squeeze blow-off of 4/10/8 days :: x/2.5x/2x with a gapped high today and likely ending on the low of the day. This blow-off series will convert to a crash devaluation series of 4/10/10/6 days. The final 6th day of this crypto fractal series is 2 November 2023 and coincides with the expected terminal day of a weekly 29 Sept 2021 gold fractal series of 15/38/37/22 weeks :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x with the final 22 weeks composed of a 7 June 2023 15/37/33/22 days :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x ending on 2 November 2023. A Primer on the the Self-Assembly Time-scale Fractal Nature of the growth and decay of asset valuations within the deterministic asset-debt macroeconomic system: There are only two elegantly simple laws of self-assembly time-based fractal asset-debt macroeconomics: While money and credit growth (and contraction)by central banks and government spending is periodically irregular, the global asset-debt macroeconomic system intrinsically and deterministically sets the order (self-orders) the growth and decay of the ongoing valutions of its asset classes of equity and commodity and debt composites by only two distinct time-based fractal patterns(mathematical laws): a three phase pattern: composed of three subfractals:1/2/and 3 in the time-scaled mathematical fractal order of x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x – where x is the base first fractal (subfractal (1) whose self-similar time length in quatified in days, weeks, months, and years. and a four phase pattern: composed of 4 subfractals: 1/2/3/ and 4 of the mathematical fractal pattern of x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x, where x is the base first fractal {subfractal (1)} time length in days, weeks, months, and years. Subfractal(3) of the 4 phase fractal series pattern can be a peak valuation such as the 2.5x 90 year subfractal (3) on 8 November 2021 or a low valuation in a declining fractal series. The time length of subfractal 2 (2-2.5x) of the 3 and 4 phase fractal series often determines the ideal time length of subfractal 1 : (x’) upon which the lengths of sub-fractals 3 and 4 are based: e.g., the 4 phase fractal pattern’s time lengths become x/(2-2.5x divided by 2.5 = x’)/2-2.5x’/1.5-1.6x’.
Above is the French stock market composite CAC's fractal pathway to the 2 Novemmer 2023 crash low.
Added 940 AM EST 26 October. A History of October 1987 Quantum Fractal Series: The 1987 SPX and global crash occurred in the subfractal (2) 2-2.5x nonlinear devaluation widow of two interpolated subfractal (1) and. subfractal (2) monthly fractal series. The first was a 20/45 of 46 months fractal series starting in July 1982 and the second an interpolated fractal series of 11/26 of 27 months fractal starting in November 1984. Preceding the Sept-Oct 3 phase daily crash fractal series was a self-ordered 20 May 1987 4-phase 13/32/25/18 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal series ending 21 September 1987. The 4/9/10 day :: x/2-2.5x/2.5x 3-phase crash series occurred from 21 September to 19 October 1987 with a peak to nadir loss of 33%. The SPX is again in the terminal 2x-2.5x nonlinear devaluation window of two subfractal(1) and subfractal (2)series: a 1982 13/30 year fractal series and a 13 March 2023 52/107 day fractal series. The crash daily decay fractal series appears to be a 27 September to 2 November 2023 5/12/12 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x series. At a 4-hour unit level the last 12 days appear to be following a 4/10/10 4-hour unit :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal decay series ideally ending around noon on the trading day of 2 November 2023. The greatest decline will likely occur in the last units of the final 10-unit sequence. Below: Added 29 October 835 PM EST The 27 September 2023 32/78/78 hour :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal decay crash to the end of the trading day 2 November 2023 The final daily fractal decay sequence of a 13 March 2023 52/113 day :: subfractal (1) and subfractal (2) is a 3-phase series of 5+/12/12 days beginning on 27 Sept and ending 2 November 2023 (assuming no trading halts). On a hourly basis a 32.78/78 hour, 3- phase X/2.5x/2.5x decay fractal series is observed starting 0930 EST on 27 September 2023 and ending 400PM EST 2 November 2023.
Added 29 October 2023: 838 EST The Global banking crash. Deutsche Bank.

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