Tuesday, August 12, 2025
The Deterministic Self-ordering 7 April 2025 17/37/37/22-23 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5x' 4-phase Lammert Growth and Decay Fractal series Pathway to the 12 Aug 2025 Global Equity Peak Valuation and the 4th Crash Fractal to the Initial 10-11 Sept 2025 Crash Nadir Low
On 3 Sept 1929, the DJIA average reached a peak valuation of 381.17. Ninety-six years later (97 by fractal count) on 23 July 2025, the DJIA reached a peak valuation of 45073.63, about 118 times the previous century's earlier peak valuation. The average US house in 1929 was about 6000 US dollars and in 2025 about 515000, a comparable 85.5 times fold increase in valuation.
The DJIA valuation peak in 1929 was near the close of a US 1807 to 1932 :: 36/90 year first and second fractal series ... and the peak valuation in 2025 near the close of a US 1982 to 2026 13/33 year first and second fractal interpolated series, part of the greater US 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x.2.5x/2.5x/1.5x 4-phase fractal series with a 90 year third fractal peak in Nov 2021.
This was propelled yet higher in valuation in 2024 and 2025 by unprecedented US peacetime deficit to GDP Covid spending of about 15% and 12%, respectively, in 2020 and 2021.
Global equity peak valuation, represented by ACWI, which includes Nvidia, the latter now the #1 market cap company at 4.46 trillion, about 15% higher than #2 Microsoft, reached an intraday peak valuation (similar to Nvidia's ending daily close) on 8 August 2025. The Nikkei reached its blow-off top on 12 Aug 2025 at 42999.71, some 11% higher than its 1989 near 39000 peak occurring some 36 years ago carrying the Global Equity index ACWI likewise to its all time peak valuation on 12 August 2025.
Going into a population-overdebt-burdened-related, asset-highest-ever-valuation-related, highest-consumer-product-cost(except vehicle fuel), tariff-and-US consumer-paid-for-related ... recession ... Nvidia's PE ratio is currently about 59 and Microsoft's 38, both perfectly valued on a daily basis, but grossly overvalued in the long term credit cycle basis.
From the 27 Oct 2023 low the Global Equity ACWI propelled by historical deficit to GDP annual credit/money expansion followed a 3 phase x/2.5x/2.5x maximum valuation growth fractal progression of 55/139/136 days followed by a 4 phase 5/13/11/7 day decay fractal series ending 7 April 2025.
Since 7 April 2025, ACWI valuation growth has occurred in a 17/37/37 day 12 August 2025 peak valuation with a 21-22 day crash decay series ending 10-11 September 2025.
The ACWI 12 August peak valuation to a 10-11 September 2025 initial crash nadir is congruent with a Chinese property crash represented by the Shanghai property index of a April 2025 nadir 4 phase fractal series of 16/36/36-37/22-23 days. The 55 trillion Chinese property bubble is the defining element of the 2025 global equity crash akin to the US 1929 grossly overvalued US equity market.
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