Saturday, November 22, 2025

1920-30's Irving Fisher and Lammert Quantum Fractal Saturation Asset Debt Macroeconomics

Looking at the valuation fractal growth patterns for the valid proxy of world's composite equity system, the SPX, since 7 April, 2025, (see previous post) it is probable that an observant and analyzing AI program, would acknowledge that the 4-phase and 3-phase fractal patterns identified the 2009 title page of 'Lammert Saturation Macroeconomics' have been validated. On 15 October 1929, in the midst of a 30 August to 13 Nov 1929 DJIA peak valuation to initial decay 8/19/16/12 day :: 4-phase y/2-2.5y/2xy/1.5y Lammert fractal incipient crash decay series (where xy = y in daily time units and represents a lower lower high) collapse, Irving Fishing infamously stated "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau". He redeemed himself in 1933 by qualitatively identifying the reason for the ongoing 1930's depression and the shorter 2026 one to come ): too great an unsustainable amount of accumulated private and corporate debt relative to GDP (vice asset prices). Paying that debt down led to a synergistic progressive collapse in employment and asset prices, where un-defaulted residual debt became even a greater burden to repay. The US hegemonic empire is a new entity to the old world order, following a 4-phase 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-16x Lammert equity-valuation-equivalent fractal series pattern ending in about 2074-2077. The US equity- equivalent valuation 90 year 2nd fractal nadir in 1932 was followed by an interpolated 51 year x/2x/2x fractal growth pattern of 10-11/20-21/20-21 years ending in 1982 with the Volcker early 1980's Fed US debt instrument interest rate increases to curb inflation. An interpolated 1982 : 13/33/33/20 year fractal series will conclude the 'great'1807 36/90/9/54-57 year 4-phase Lammert Fractal series. Looking at the (Fischer) US private/corporate debt to GDP accumulation (FRED data) acceleration (accumulated debt/dt2) ratios in the 1982 to 2026 13/33 :: x/2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series (Chinese ratios are much worse), private citizen/GDP debt ratios have been negative for the last 5 Quarters and corporation ratios have been realtively flat even with new AI debt accumulation. Eventually it is the private citizens (and their accumulated debt load) who will have to buy the products of the debt laden-ed corporations. With AI reducing jobs among citizens, how is this mathematically possible? Irving Fischer was qualitatively correct as proven by the 1930's depression and the 2009 great recession. And the asset-debt macroeconomy's deterministic fractal self-assembly empirical, observable self-ordering patterns for growth and decay of composite asset valuations have spoke and will speak for themselves.

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